Week 16 First Look

Photo: Imagn Images

In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 16 Main Slate, we begin our weekly preparation process by taking a big-picture view of the slate. The goal is to give you some info-packed visualizations and tables as an appetizer for the much more in-depth main courses that come later in the week. In addition, we want to start identifying the teams and players who are most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus as soon as possible and start digging deeper into the pluses and minuses of the players who stand out as potential top options.

Our Week 16 First Look will start by breaking down the lines and team totals. We are looking at the best spots overall and at teams projected to score more than they typically do, which is a sneakier path to success. We will also identify the players that are popping out as top values in the early-week Footballguys Consensus Projections. Lastly, we will dig into usage stats and how each player on the slate ranks in key metrics.

Implied Team Totals and Spreads

The above visualization shows each team’s implied team total and how much they are favored by (negative numbers for underdogs).

• The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. It is interesting to see the Bears up in this quadrant. This is a team that has shown steady improvement throughout the season. Against the Cardinals, the Bears offense could explode. Justin Fields and DJ Moore will be a popular stack. The Lions are also solidly favored with a high team total. This could be a bounce-back spot for David Montgomery.
• The bottom right-hand quadrant contains teams that are favored but in what are expected to be low-scoring games. The Packers and Jets are both solid favorites. The game scripts should set up well for Breece Hall and Aaron Jones.
• The upper left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points in games with shootout potential. The game script should set up well for the passing games of these offenses. The Cowboys are underdogs at Miami. This is a similar spot to last week against the Bills. That game did not shoot out the way many expected. Could this week be different? Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb should be a popular stack and worth playing if you think last week's poor offensive showing was a fluke.
• The bottom left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs and not expected to score much. We want to approach rostering players from these teams with caution. The Texans had been an offensive gold mine, but C.J. Stroud is out again with a concussion. The Jaguars are a possible exception to the rule of discounting players on teams in this quadrant. Jacksonville's team total is just barely below the slate average, and injuries have narrowed the target distribution. Calvin Ridley will be an option worth strongly considering.