New Coach Effects: Denver Broncos

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The Denver Broncos hired head coach Nathaniel Hackett in 2022 before the team traded for quarterback Russell Wilson. The 2022 season went poorly before Hackett was fired after week 16. The team hired former New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton as their new head coach which should change the trajectory of their franchise after a bad one-year stint under Hackett.

The Wilson- Hackett era started badly. In Week 1, in primetime, Hackett drew widespread ridicule for deciding to kick a potential game-winning 64-yard field goal on 4th and 5 with 20 seconds left instead of allowing Wilson to try and convert on fourth down to set up a closer field goal.

At the time of the decision, Wilson was 29 of 42 for 340 yards and a touchdown. The 42 attempts and 340 yards would be season-highs for Wilson. He threw 42 times in Week 9 but never threw for more than 286 yards again during the season.

The decision was widely condemned but was an ominous sign.

Wilson had a disappointing season in his first year in Denver, which led to the Broncos missing the playoffs, finishing last in the AFC West, and firing Nathaniel Hackett after week 16.

From a volume perspective, Wilson had one of his better years but was less efficient than during his time in Seattle. You can see this on the graph below, which charts Wilson’s attempts per game (left axis) and his career yards per attempt (right axis) during his NFL career.

During Wilson’s final years in Seattle, there was frustration in the fantasy community that Seattle did not throw enough, considering Wilson’s strong passing efficiencies. When Denver traded for Russell Wilson, it was widely assumed the team would “let Russ cook” and become a pass-centric offense. This turned out not to be true.

During Wilson’s Seattle tenure from 2012 through 2021, the team threw one percent below their expected rate based on their game script. The only down situation they threw more than expected was after they rushed for a first down.

This also showed up in early down pass frequency. During Wilson’s tenure, Seattle only ranked above average in three of the 10 seasons.

Despite the big investment in Wilson, Denver did not become the high passing frequency that many had hoped. In 2022, the team was two percent under the expected pass frequency and only ranked above average in second down and short situations.

The team also ranked 17th in pass frequency on early downs (50.9%).

Wilson’s fantasy production was among the worst of his career. Overall he finished as QB16 in season-long points, but he ranked 19th in per-game scoring among quarterbacks with at least two starts.

While there was much discourse around Wilson’s play, the biggest factor in his fantasy scoring decline in the 2022 touchdown production. In his Seattle career, Wilson threw a touchdown on 6.2% of his attempts. In 2022, Wilson’s touchdown rate plunged to only 3.3%.

This was almost entirely the performance in the red zone. The league-wide red zone touchdown rate has stabilized in the mid-20% range during Wilson’s career, and he was well above average in all but 2014 and 2016, when he fell just below the league average.

In 2022, Wilson’s rate cratered to 15.6%, almost half his 30.5% rate during his time in Seattle. This stayed true inside the 10-yard line, where Wilson scored on 21.7% of his attempts, well below his 41.1% rate in Seattle.

Overall, the team struggled, with Javonte Williams suffering a torn ACL in Week 2, Melvin Gordon getting released during the season, and much-hyped Albert Okwuegbunam being relegated to a reserve role. Jerry Jeudy had the best season of his career and managed his first top-24 seasonal finish, while Courtland Sutton was a disappointment. Perhaps the most encouraging skill position performer was Greg Dulcich, who produced 1.3 yards per route run as a rookie despite missing the start of the season.

Sean Payton Tendencies

Sean Payton has a track record in New Orleans which should be encouraging for Denver. The Saints ranked second in early down pass frequency from 2010 through 2021, behind only Green Bay.

The Saints threw the ball on early downs above the league-average rate from 2010 up until 2020, when Drew Brees began a steep decline.

Payton was particularly valuable for running backs. During his tenure in New Orleans, his running backs averaged 30.1 PPR points per game. By comparison, the Chargers led the league in expected running back points in 2022 with 30.0 PPR points per game. Payton’s history of production, particularly in the passing game with running backs, will make the Denver backfield one to watch.

Javonte Williams is returning from a torn ACL, and Latavius Murray, who finished the season as Denver’s starter, has a track record with Payton from their time together in New Orleans.

2023 Offseason

From a fantasy football perspective, Russell Wilson and Javonte Williams’s injury rehabilitation are the key storylines to watch. Denver will also have a decision on Jerry Jeudy’s fifth-year option, and he has been the subject of initial offseason trade rumors. Additionally, Lavatius Murray is a free agent.

The team has the following draft picks:

• 67th
• 68th
• 108th (subject to compensatory picks changing order)
• 141st (subject to compensatory picks changing order)
• 196th (subject to compensatory picks changing order)

Beneficiaries

Overall, Russell Wilson will be the primary story of the offseason. He should be the subject of positive touchdown variance at a minimum and should get some growth in passing volume under head coach Sean Payton. The running back depth chart should also benefit from Payton, so Williams’s health will be important to monitor. Any depth chart running back additions should be monitored in the event Williams has a slow return from his torn ACL.