Cracking DraftKings Thanksgiving

Photo: Imagn Images

There will be more thorough analysis coming throughout the night on Wednesday, but for those that don't know I had surgery yesterday and it's delayed me getting this out as soon as I would have liked due to other obligations (Rushing/Passing Matchups, Optimizer setup, FanDuel, Roster Percentages, and other behind the scene stuff).

If you want to reach out send an email to knotts@footballguys.com or on https://twitter.com/devinknottsfbg

Cash Game Rankings:

Quarterback:

1) Dak Prescott- Quarterback with the highest floor, and at just $6,800, the extra $1,000 for Prescott is likely going to be worth the risk mitigation. The Commanders are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season.
2) Geno Smith- While he's dealing with an injury, he's expected to play this week. Smith is going to need to throw the ball heavily with Kenneth Walker out this week. At $5,600 his floor is low, but he has as much of an upside as any quarterback on this slate.

Running Back:

1) Christian McCaffrey- McCaffrey seems cheaper than he otherwise should be on this slate. At $8,700, the value that you get from McCaffrey compared to the other higher risk running backs on this slate
2) Brian Robinson (If Antonio Gibson is out)- Robinson has caught 13 passes over the last two games. If Antonio Gibson is ruled out, Robinson jumps to a top play on this slate.
3) Zach Charbonnet- At $5,300, Charbonnet will benefit from Kenneth Walker being out this week. Last week, Charbonnet was on the field for 85% of the snaps. Charbonnet has caught 10 passes over the last two games, while also having 15 carries last week.
4) A.J. Dillon- Dillon is cheap this week, and with Aaron Jones out, he should be on the field as much as he can handle. While Dillon has struggled this season, he is a player who can provide value for the rest of your lineup.
5) Tony Pollard- Pollard finally broke out of his slump last week, but that was against one of the league's worst run defenses in Carolina. At $6,700, his price is just a little bit too high in cash games, as it will make it almost impossible to have McCaffrey this week.
6) David Montgomery- Montgomery has scored a touchdown in every game but one this season, and while most are going to look at Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery has topped 100 yards in three of his last five games.

Wide Receiver:

1) Brandin Cooks- Cooks has more yards than CeeDee Lamb over the last two weeks. On a week that the Cowboys should be able to easily move the ball through the air, the Cowboys could continue to look to build the connection with Prescott and Cooks as they look to become a more dynamic and consistent offense heading into the late season playoff run.
2) Jayden Reed (If active)- At $4,200, Reed is a tremendous value as the rookie has 5 or more targets in three of his last four games. While he's dealing with a chest injury, he should be good to go this week.
3) Christian Watson (If Reed inactive)- If Reed was to be a surprise inactive, Watson would vault up to one of the top plays on this slate. As it stands right now, he's just a bit too risky if Reed is active, as he has just 5 total receptions over his last three games
4) Terry McLaurin- The Commanders throw more than any team in the NFL. At $5,400, the Commanders top target is a nice value this week even in a difficult matchup. McLaurin has five or more receptions in five of his last six games.
5) CeeDee Lamb- Lamb is a top play if you can fit him into your lineup this week. Lamb should see a lot of Benjamin St-Juste in the slot who has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The only problem with Lamb is that we have seen a lower floor than we typically would like for a wide receiver who is $8,700.
6) Tyler Lockett- Lockett has been a target machine as he has seven or more targets in each of his last four games. At $6,000, the matchup is one that people will be scared off, but the 49ers have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season as five wide receivers have topped 100-yards against San Francisco.
7) Brandon Aiyuk- Aiyuk has as much upside as any receiver on this slate. He's coming off of a 5 catch 156-yard performance last week with a touchdown. He has topped 100-yards in two of his last three games, and if this game becomes a shootout type game, it is likely that Aiyuk has a big role in it. At $7,000 he provides a similar upside to the $8,7000 Lamb, but does have a lower floor than Lamb and St. Brown just due to having a lower target distribution and there being more options in that offense.
8) Jaxon Smith-Njigba- He's cheap, and someone that the Seahawks are going to continue to focus around based on the draft capital that they've invested in him. Smith-Njigba has topped 40 yards in five of his last six games.

Tight End:

1) Jake Ferguson- If you can afford him, Ferguson has the highest touchdown probability on this slate by a wide margin. He's scored a touchdown and four or more receptions in three of his last four games.
2) Tucker Kraft- With Luke Musgrave out this week, Kraft should see a majority of the snaps for the Packers. Kraft is a bit risky, as his floor is theoretically 0 points, but he provides some nice salary relief this week that can be used to take some of the higher priced players in cash.
3) Logan Thomas- Thomas is a great value play this week. While his upside is likely limited, he does have four or more receptions in five straight games.

Team Defense:

1) Dallas Cowboys- Sam Howell is on pace to have been sacked more than any other quarterback in the history of the NFL. He also leads the league in pass attempts, which has led to 12 interceptions this season. This is a tough matchup for Howell this week and if you can afford Dallas, they should be in a great spot.
2) Detroit Lions- Jordan Love looked great last week against the league's worst pass defense in the Chargers at home. This is a completely different game on the road against the Lions on Thanksgiving. Expect the inexperienced Love to struggle this week especially with no Aaron Jones who is one of the key check-down options out of the backfield.

GPP Thoughts:

Quarterback:

Dak Prescott is going to be the most popular player, but not as popular as we might otherwise think. He's likely to come in around 30-40% rostered (although 3 game slates are often hard to predict roster percentages), and if that's the case he's likely going to be under-rostered this week. He makes for a very strong GPP play, just due to the ceiling that very few other players on this roster have and the stacking combinations that you have around him. The Washington matchup is a great one as they're allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and have allowed 20 or more DraftKings points to every quarterback except for Josh Dobbs and Mac Jones.

Geno Smith is going to be under-rostered as most are going to look at the matchup against San Francisco and not want any part of it. However, we have seen games this season in which opposing quarterbacks have had success as Joe Burrow had 27.62 DraftKings points, Kirk Cousins had 25.02,and Joshua Dobbs had 23.40 against this defense. With no Kenneth Walker, the Seahawks could come out with a run-heavy gameplan this week.