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The NFL Draft can have a big impact on player values. In dynasty leagues, additional competition or support from the NFL Draft can have an impact on a player’s dynasty outlook. This article focuses on six wide receivers who were hurt by the NFL Draft.
DeAndre Hopkins has been one of the bigger fallers in dynasty valuation over the past year. Arizona’s trade for Marquise Brown was unlikely to help the matter and then Hopkins was suspended for six games for a PED use. Hopkins’s contract insulates his role in the Arizona receiving corps as he has a cap number of 30.8 million dollars in 2023 with only 8.2 million dollars in potential savings if he is cut. His structure likely commits him to a two-year deal in Arizona. Hopkins will be 30 years old in 2022 and saw his lowest targets per game (6.4) of his career, and the only time he has been below 127 targets since his rookie season. Hopkins is available in the WR40 range of the position. The added competition and the suspension should cause his value to plummet even further.
Chase Claypool had essentially a repeat of his rookie season. Claypool remained the same with 3.9 receptions per game and increased slightly in yards per game from 54.6 yards to 57.3 yards in his second season. The big difference is the touchdowns, where Claypool dropped from 9 receiving touchdowns to 2 receiving touchdowns in 2021. Likewise, Claypool dropped from two rushing touchdowns to none in 2021. The team added George Pickens in the second round, which creates additional target competition and raises some concern about the long-term development of Claypool. Claypool is in the range of WR40 in valuation.
Devonta Smith entered draft weekend with Philadelphia likely to address the position. The fact they would address it with A.J. Brown surpassed expectations. Smith could have fended off a rookie, but Brown is a highly efficient wide receiver with a history of NFL production. Smith will have a hard time producing a top 12 ceiling, particularly in an offense with Dallas Goedert and Brown with Jalen Hurts at the helm. Smith has a value in the WR20-25 range and is an avoid at that cost.
A year after Washington signed Curtis Samuel for three years and 34.5 million dollars, Washington drafted Jahan Dotson with the 16th pick in the draft. Samuel was targeted nine times in five games in 2021 and has a career-high 105 targets. The selection of Dotson is a recognition they cannot trust Samuel, who is a likely cut candidate in the offseason. Samuel has a value of WR75 at Keeptradecut.com in the past month and has fallen 17 positions in the past month.
Detroit seemed likely to address the wide receiver position, but the 2nd and 32nd picks in the first round seemed to be on either side of the first-round wide receivers. The trade up to the 12th pick reset the expectations as they were able to land Jameson Williams. Jameson Williams tore his ACL near the end of the college football season, and Detroit can afford to bring him back slowly, which could allow St. Brown to continue to produce well into the beginning of the 2022 season. Given a WR30 valuation, he has the capability to beat it.
Corey Davis signed a three-year 37.5-million-dollar contract with the Jets in 2021. Entering year two, the Jets drafted Garrett Wilson with the tenth pick in the draft. This could make Davis expendable, as they only owe no guaranteed money to Davis after 2022 and could save 10.5 million dollars of his 11.2-million-dollar cap hit in 2023. Davis has a valuation of WR76, but with WR4 performance in his range of outcomes.
