One of my favorite things to do after uploading my rankings to the Footballguys Consensus is to go through and look for discrepancies. A feature to the left of our rankings shows each player's high and low ranks. Players with significant gaps between their high/low means there are wildly different opinions on this player. While there could be any number of reasons to explain this gap, there is a way for you to use this simple data as an advantage heading into your fantasy draft. There is information here to help you identify sleepers or avoid potential busts.
Let me start by saying that we're not here to judge anyone's rankings. Our staff puts a lot of research into everything they do and can easily back up their stance. We do not need them to explain anything to find value. This data gives a tremendous top-down look at the range of outcomes. It gets even better when you compare that range of outcomes to a player's average draft position. This is where you'll find the value that will help you in your draft.
As of May 31st, 13 staff members have rankings available. I reviewed each position to highlight the discrepancies that caught my attention.
4 Notable Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes II (High: 1, Low: 7)
Our first player is a cautionary tale. No matter his situation, Mahomes' name commands draft capital. Despite losing his best wide receiver, Mahomes is still being drafted as the 2nd best quarterback in the 3rd Round of fantasy drafts. While most fantasy analysts would agree that no quarterback should be drafted that high, Mahomes' cloudy 2022 makes it even more dangerous. He was the 4th best quarterback last year, with Tyreek Hill still on the team. While two of our rankers still have him locked in at #1, two others have him outside of the Top 5. For the draft capital you're spending, a QB7 season would be devastating.
Tom Brady (High: 3, Low: 10), Dak Prescott (High: 4, Low: 13), Jalen Hurts (High: 4, Low: 14)
We will lump this entire group together because their situations, for our purposes, are very similar. Their draft ranking is closer to their floor than their ceiling. When you wait until the mid or late rounds to take your quarterback, your focus is on the upside. These players have rankers who believe they can be a top-5 fantasy option this season without a top-5 ADP. They also carry low risk, as quarterbacks in this range score similarly, so the possible floor outside the Top 10 isn't all that bad. Pay special attention to Tom Brady. He was the No. 3 quarterback last season, and multiple people have him inside their Top 5 again. However, his draft cost is outside of the Top 10. You are getting him at his floor, and you want that value.
3 Notable Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (High: 3, Low: 16)
Like his teammate Tom Brady, Fournette is being drafted at his floor and presents massive upside. With a current ADP of RB12, there is almost no risk and three rankers have him as a top-5 fantasy back. Last year, the 27-year-old running back had his best season since his rookie year, with over 1200 total yards and ten touchdowns. But, by far, the best part of his game for fantasy purposes was his usage in the passing game. Reeling in 69 catches on 84 targets was the type of volume that makes a good back great for fantasy. The team let Ronald Jones II walk, and they are unlikely to entrust a considerable role to rookie Rachaad White. While Fournette will lose occasional snaps to White, Giovani Bernard, and KeShawn Vaughn, it is not likely to be enough to knock him out of the fantasy Top 10.
Antonio Gibson (High: 10, Low: 27)
Gibson was a top-10 running back last season and didn't do anything particularly unrepeatable. His ADP puts him at RB16, but a perceived floor would drop him out of the Top 25. The concern around Gibson stems from two transactions: The return of J.D. McKissic and the drafting of Brian Robinson. McKissic has been a thorn in the side of Gibson's fantasy value. Since 2020, McKissic was targeted 163 times, siphoning work that could have gone to Gibson. Then, the Commanders drafted Robinson in the 3rd Round of the 2022 draft. The coaches have already said they expect to play Gibson and Robinson together and that Gibson's workload will vary weekly. With draft capital as a top-15 running back and a floor outside of the Top 25, Gibson looks like a very risky second-round fantasy pick.
Damien Harris (High: 20, Low: 44)
Unlike Gibson, Damien Harris has a statistic that is not likely to be repeated, and drafters should take note of his floor. Harris scored 15 touchdowns last season and still finished as just the 14th best fantasy running back. If that number were to regress too far, Harris' ADP of RB25 could quickly go from moderate value to an all-out bust. So many factors are working against him heading into 2022. Last year's 4th-Round running back, Rhamondre Stevenson, handled 133 carries to Harris' 202. Then, the team drafted Pierre Strong in the 4th Round of the 2022 draft, and James White is set to return. That means Harris is unlikely to see an uptick in the passing game and could even lose more carries to Stevenson as he grows into this offense. Please don't reach for Harris near his ceiling with less volume firmly on the table.
3 Notable Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (High: 7, Low: 18)
Like his former quarterback, Tyreek Hill's name will be called early in fantasy drafts because of what he has done over the last five seasons. But situations change, and that could not be better defined than the difference between Patrick Mahomes II and Tua Tagovailoa. While Tagovailoa is a good quarterback, he is not Patrick Mahomes II. Not in playstyle and certainly not in arm strength. Hill will have to work much harder to be a top-10 fantasy wide receiver, which is reflected in his ranking difference. Even with Mahomes, Hill was as likely to have a week with below ten fantasy points as he was to have a league-winning monster week. If both his floor and ceiling get lower, his WR7 ADP carries far more risk than what we are accustomed to for the speedy wideout.
Michael Pittman (High: 8, Low: 26)
The following two players received quarterback upgrades and seem to scream value for fantasy drafts right now. Pittman will now catch balls from Matt Ryan instead of Carson Wentz. Even at this stage in Ryan's career, that is undoubtedly an upgrade. After a WR17 finish with a below-average Wentz, Pittman's average draft spot is near his floor as the 21st wide receiver. However, he should be able to best his 2021 numbers with Ryan at quarterback, and multiple rankers have him as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver.
Allen Robinson (High: 10, Low: 25)
After leaving the Chicago Bears, Robinson could not have landed in a much better spot. He leaves one of the most dysfunctional offenses in 2021 to play for one of the best from last season. The craziest thing about his current draft situation is that no matter which rankers you believe, Robinson is a fantastic value. He is currently going off boards as the 41st wide receiver in fantasy drafts. That means our rankers have his floor 16 spots ahead of his ADP, and his ceiling is a league-winning 31 spots ahead. So reach for Robinson in the 7th Round of every draft you're in and reap the rewards.
2 Notable Tight Ends
Dawson Knox (High: 9, Low: 24)
The following two players feel like trap plays for very different reasons. One is touchdown-dependent; the other didn't even find the endzone last season. Dawson Knox's fantasy value relies on touchdowns, and there are some obvious concerns. The Bills added a few wide receivers this offseason and even brought in O.J. Howard at tight end. Perhaps more importantly, they drafted a running back in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft, and James Cook presents a threat to Knox's touchdown count. If Knox ends up with fewer targets and touchdowns, you'll want no part of him and his TE24 floor in fantasy football.
Cole Kmet (High: 11, Low: 27)
My concerns for Kmet stem from a new offensive scheme. Chicago's new head coach comes from a Green Bay staff that hasn't targeted the tight end position more than 100 times in the last two seasons. That's the entire group; no single player has crossed even 60 targets. Last season, Kmet could not crack the Top 20 or score even a single touchdown, despite 93 targets. Mid-round tight ends almost always disappoint, and Knox and Kmet, with floors outside the Top 20, look like the poster children to avoid them again.
