Unexpected Observations from Week 7

Photo: Imagn Images

I'm a projections guy. Every offseason, I build out projections for the upcoming season to see who has an immediate path to fantasy upside. It can be an extremely helpful exercise, not just for the results but for the process that it forces the projector to follow. The act of building projections can lead you to identify players and situations with ambiguous upside or clear pathways to volume.

Fortunately, I get to build projections during the season too! While I've added some shortcuts to speed up my process, I basically have to tear down last week's projections and rebuild them with the news and notes from the current week. While this can be a bit tedious, it forces me to go back through every data point from every team across the league to identify emerging trends. This article looks at some of the most interesting developments around the NFL.

*Note: We do not cover the teams where things went according to expectation.

Routes run and dropback data in this article is from Pro Football Focus. I prefer to focus on the percentage of routes run which is simply a player's routes divided by the team's total dropbacks. Terms: RMS = Rushing Market Share, TMS = Target Market Share, RR% = Routes Run percentage (of dropbacks)

Running Back Rotations

• Baltimore Ravens: A confluence of events has led to an amazing opportunity for Gus Edwards to emerge as the Ravens' lead back. With JK Dobbins placed on injured reserve, Edwards was elevated to the active roster on gameday and founds his way into the endzone twice. However, Edwards will need to make some significant gains before we can count on him reliably. Edwards played only 36% of the team's snaps in Week 7 and handled only 36% of team rush attempts while running only four routes. Justice Hill and Kenyan Drake joined Edwards as lesser members of a three-headed committee. However, it will be easy enough to chalk up this lack of utilization to an on-ramp for Edwards as he works back from injury. Proceed with caution in the short term, but this looks like a promising opportunity for a growing role for Gus Edwards.
• Carolina Panthers: The trade of Christian McCaffrey left us wondering whether Chuba Hubbard or DOnta Foreman might emerge as the lead back. However, we might not have gotten enough information to tell for sure. Chuba Hubbard tweaked his ankle in this game, and Carolina maintained a lead throughout the game, both of which were favorable to Foreman. Hubbard, however, still logged 46% of the snaps (to Foreman's 54%). The routes run and targets, however, fell in favor of Hubbard. We should expect both to be plenty involved moving forward with Hubbard a favorite in negative game scripts.
• Dallas Cowboys: In Dak Prescott's first game back, Tony Pollard led the backfield in snaps for the first time this season. Pollard ran more routes than Ezekiel Elliott (50% to 39%) while Elliott held the lead in rush attempts. Pollard appears to have finally proven to this coaching staff that he is the premiere player in this backfield. There is not a large enough sample to forecast that he has completely stolen this job, but this is an intriguing first step for the explosive younger option.
• Green Bay Packers: For the second time in three weeks, Aaron Jones topped a 70% snap rate, leaving A.J. Dillon below 35%. In a team bereft of playmakers on the perimeter, the Packers simply require Aaron Jones' pass-catching skillset for Aaron Rodgers to have any hope of success. This is bad news for Dillon, who already had a dicey role as a committee back. Earlier this season, the team was much more open to 2-RB sets, but that has not been the case recently.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: Two things have happened with Jacksonville. First, they demonstrated a willingness to feed Travis Etienne as he logged an 80% snap rate, dominating the backfield in all categories. Second, they shipped off James Robinson to the Jets following an ACL tear from Breece Hall. Etienne will now only lose a few token touches to JaMycal Hasty and Snoop Conner in what should be one of the larger bell cow roles in the NFL.
• Kansas City Chiefs: Ian Rapaport broke the news Sunday morning that Isiah Pacheco would be the Chiefs' starting running back, and that is indeed what happened. However, after the first drive, it was business as usual for the Chiefs as Clyde Edwards-Helaire accounted for the lion's share of rush attempts. and McKinnon led the backfield in snaps. This will be an unreliable weekly committee until someone can pull away.
• New York Jets: Unfortunately, dynamic rookie running back Breece Hall saw his season come to an end in week 7. Following the game, the Jets picked up the phone to make a deal to bring Jaguars' RB James Robinson to New York. Robinson will help offset the load for Michael Carter, who should be considered the favorite to lead the running back group in all categories except perhaps goalline rushes. Carter should bump up a spot into the Hall role, leaving Robinson to take some of the lower-value touches.
• San Francisco 49ers: In Christian McCaffrey's first game as a 49er, he was eased into the offense. It's difficult to learn much from this game, but we should expect McCaffrey to be featured beginning in week 8.