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A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, the Real Draft Position (RDP) for players over the past month is compared to the recent Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP). Players with a higher dynasty RDP than Underdog ADP are overvalued in the near term, while players with a higher Underdog ADP than Dynasty RDP are dynasty values, particularly later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on wide receivers who are undervalued by Dynasty RDP compared to their Underdog ADP.
Mike Williams
Mike Williams had a fifth-year breakout, a rarity for first-round wide receivers. He cashed in with a 3-year, 60-million-dollar contract in the offseason. Williams is returning to an offense led by Justin Herbert, after a career-high in targets (129), receptions (76), and receiving yards (1146). Williams is being drafted as a fringe WR3-4 in dynasty with an RDP at 36, while being in the top 15 in Underdog ADP. Our projections have Williams at WR16. Williams is a good WR2 option for a team waiting on the position in a startup draft.
Mike Evans
Mike Evans as a top 24 seasonal finisher has been the most consistent event in fantasy football since Evans was drafted in 2014. Evans has been consistently underrated by dynasty RDP in recent years, and this continues in 2022. Evans is WR25 in dynasty RDP, with Underdog WR8. Evans had the highest touchdown seasons in his career, with 13 and 14 over the past two seasons. Evans has seen lower volumes in the Brady-era than pre-Brady era but could see a growth in volume as Chris Godwin works his way back from injury.
Allen Robinson
In 2021, Allen Robinson had the worst season of his career outside his 2017 injury-shortened season. Robinson trailed Darnell Mooney in targets, and only managed 5.5 targets per game in 2021. Robinson played 2021 on a franchise tag in a situation that looked toxic throughout the season. Robinson was signed by the Rams, and the pairing with Matthew Stafford will be the best quarterback Robinson has ever played with. The dynasty marketplace has soured on Robinson (WR39 in RDP), while he is the WR22 in Underdog ADP. Odell Beckham transitioned to the Rams and saw an improved dynasty valuation, something Robinson should look for in 2022.
Adam Thielen
Adam Thielen saw a drop in yards per game and yards per reception in 2021, but maintained his strong touchdown production, with 10 on 95 targets. Thielen will run it back with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson in Minnesota in 2022. Thielen is a WR52 in dynasty RDP with a WR36 ADP. At his cost, Thielen is unlikely to improve in dynasty trade value but can eat innings for a team looking to sort out its wide receiver corps.
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas has not been his full self since 2019, missing a portion of 2020, and the entirety of 2021. Thomas has fallen to RDP WR44 in dynasty RDP, with the redraft community more optimistic with WR35 at Underdog. Jarvis Landry was added in free agency while the Saints traded up for Chris Olave in the 2022 NFL Draft. Thomas has a wide range of outcomes: in an offense where a healthy, fantasy wide receiver friendly James Winston is at the helm of a passing-centric offense where Chris Olave progresses slowly and Jarvis Landry falls off; or an injured wide receiver in a run-centric offense with Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry as target competition with Jameis Winston recovering from injuries. At his cost, Thomas is a ceiling bet with a lot of risk.
Keenan Allen
The dynasty community has put Justin Herbert ahead of Patrick Mahomes II after the NFL Draft, but his top wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Williams, are undervalued. Allen has an RDP of WR29 in dynasty RDP, but an Underdog ADP of WR12. Allen has led the league in targets over the past three seasons and should age well given his format. He is an ideal wide receiver in dynasty formats with his spread between dynasty cost and production.
Brandin Cooks
After Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks has been the most consistent wide receiver since 2014. Cooks has been a top 20 seasonal finisher in every season except his rookie season and final injury-plagued season with the LA Rams in 2019. Cooks has a dynasty RDP of WR38 and an Underdog RDP of WR28 and is coming off a season when he finished 12TH in targets (130). Cooks could get improved in efficiency in 2022 with growth from Davis Mills, and our projections have him as a WR15, an excellent value at the position.
Gabriel Davis
Gabriel Davis is a curious case in dynasty. Much of the dynasty analysis focused on how Davis could get additional competition in the NFL Draft. Instead, the team cut Cole Beasley while Emmanuel Sanders remains a free agent and the Bills did not address the position before day three of the NFL Draft. Davis had the highest percentage of his targets in the red zone of any receiver in the league in 2021. Add this with the potential for Davis to significantly more than his 338 routes from 2022. Davis is still a young wide receiver, and he is valued lower in dynasty RDP WR38 than he is in Underdog ADP of WR24, and has not seen an increase in cost despite a much-improved situation.
