Top 10: Week 7

Photo: Imagn Images

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

Why not both?

Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.

The goal of this feature is to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that has made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown has told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas as well as his stints at Rice and Houston.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, that's available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often toward players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more toward players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 6 Cliff's Notes

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

• JaMarr Chase Reminds Us There Are Different Ways of Getting the Job Done In a two-week span, Chase has vaulted from the bubble of fantasy WR1 territory to the top five at his position. His film confirms that he was no rookie fluke.
• Darius Slayton: The Consolation Prize In the Walker Waiver Sweepstakes? He did little this week, but it's still possible. Don't hang onto him too long if something better comes along.
• Amari Cooper: A Target for Your Stretch Run? The Browns will have a quarterback upgrade in a month. Coupled with the state of the defense, Cooper should be on your stretch-run shortlist. You might need to take the chance to nab him early.
• Chris Godwin: A Target for Your Stretch Run?: The Buccaneers' offensive line is bad and that's a good thing for Godwin's fantasy value.
• Skylar Thompson's First Start: A thumb injury prematurely ended Thompson's first start with a week, but the week of preparation led to promising work that should get your attention -- at least long-term.
• What to Make of Bailey Zappe No, the Patriots shouldn't be trading Mac Jones away, but Zappe is a promising journeyman backup who can play when needed.
• Cade Otton Isn't Fantasy-Ready, But He's Earning NFL Props: Tampa's rookie tight end is impressive albeit on limited volume. He's at least worth monitoring on your waiver wire as a potential preemptive addition.
• I Saw Three Good Young Running Backs Sunday and Two of the Three Teams Know What They Have: Those three teams are the Steelers, Seahawks, and Cardinals. Arizona is the team still in the dark about their good young RB.
• Run, Kyler, Run!: I appreciate Kyler Murray's talent even if I wouldn't want him as my NFL team's quarterback. I appreciate him more when he makes it a point to be a runner.
• Fresh Fish: Three players earn this dubious title this week — one representing a unit that has been a repeat offender. .

Let's turn this mother out...

1. Jamarr Chase Reminds There are Different Ways of Getting the Job Done

In a two-week span, Chase has vaulted from the bubble of fantasy WR1 territory to the top five at his position. His film confirms that he was no rookie fluke, although I doubt anyone in their right mind entertained the notion that Chase wasn't for real. Instead, there was legitimate concern that opposing defenses would adjust their game plan's to make it harder for Cincinnati's offense to optimize Chase's production.

This is the case. Chase is averaging 12.2 yards per catch with 39 receptions. At this point last year, Chase was averaging 20.5 catches.on 17 fewer catches.

After six weeks, Chase was the No.6 fantasy receiver in PPR formats with 112.1 fantasy points. This year? Chase is the No.5 option with 110.7 fantasy points.

How a player earns his production can cloud the assessment of a player's performance. Last year, Joe Burrow and Chase were dropping bombs on opposing defenses with field-flipping plays. Thanks to two-high safety looks, it's a different story this year but no less effective.

JaMarr Chase schemed open. #Bengals pic.twitter.com/v7LBvwxkRD

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2022

JaMarr Chase slant on third down.#Bengals

Double-up footwork release with swat-wipe counter to DB’s hands pic.twitter.com/cNUJCo87Ry

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2022

Double-up and wipe for just enough room vs Adebo for JaMarr Chase to score. pic.twitter.com/yiF4WiWKtS

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2022

JaMarr Chase’s hand position is the difference in this third down slot that does not break wide open. #Bengals pic.twitter.com/ef3MtXehZN

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2022

Chase is doing more of the dirty work this year. Because he's also earning reps in the slot, he's also creating for his teammates in different ways.

JaMarr Chase creating space for Joe Mixon TD #Bengals pic.twitter.com/2PddImsMue

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2022

Fantasy Advice: Chase's production and usage in 2022 should further encourage you that he's a long-term anchor for dynasty formats and a clear-cut elite WR1 for re-draft leagues. If you luck into an opportunity to acquire Chase in any format, don't hesitate. He and Justin Jefferson are two of the most well-rounded weapons at the position in the NFL.

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2. Darius Slayton: Still A Consolation Prize?

Last week, I recommended Slayton as a cheap addition in case you lacked the dollars to bid on Ken Walker, citing last week's tape where Slayton came through enough catches on a variety of routes to demonstrate his potential worth. This weekend, Slayton did little. He caught a screen pass for 18 yards on 45 snaps and three targets.

At the same time, Slayton earned a pair of red-zone targets. One of them forced the Ravens' safety to hold Slayton and draw a penalty.

I believe Slayton can still be a factor for the Giants, but after seeing how the Giants run their offense this weekend, it's becoming clear that New York's receiving corps is a volatile source of fantasy value. WanDale Robinson was the flavor of the week, and that only translated to 4 targets, 3 catches, 37 yards, and a touchdown on a schemed play versus a blitz.

Not impressive.

Saquon Barkley is the only stable and productive fantasy commodity on this offense. Daniel Bellinger is stable in terms of weekly snaps and targets but not productive enough.

Fantasy Advice: The nature of Slayton's targets suggests there's still hope for him to have productive weeks ahead, but predicting when this happens may prove troublesome unless his target totals increase to a consistently higher level. Until then, Slayton is worth having on your rosters but don't feel the need to save him if other compelling options draw your eye.

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3. Amari Cooper: A Trade Target for Your Stretch run?

Yes. In fact, it might be best to formulate offers sooner than later. Cooper has earned double-digit target totals in four of the NFL's first six weeks. In three of those four games, Cooper has earned at least 7 catches, 75 yards, and a touchdown.

He's winning against zone and man-to-man coverage, making difficult plays look easy.

Amari Cooper has been as advertised for #Browns pic.twitter.com/U59cGM2Yjd

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 17, 2022

A top-20 receiver with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, Deshaun Watson is five games away from returning to the NFL and a significant upgrade for Cooper's prospects. Paired with this struggling defense, Cooper should retain the volume of looks with the potential for higher efficiency with Watson in the fold.