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The NFL Draft can have a big impact on player values. In dynasty leagues, additional competition or support from the NFL Draft can have an impact on a player’s dynasty outlook. This article focuses on five tight ends who were hurt by the NFL Draft.
Dallas Goedert benefitted from the departure of Zach Ertz in 2021, finishing behind only George Kittle in yards per route run after Ertz was traded. The pre-draft news was a clear indication the team was in the market for a wide receiver, but the trade for A.J. Brown is better target competition than any first-round rookie wide receiver could have provided. Goedert is hyper-efficient, but he has a volume concern in a run-first Philadelphia offense with Brown and DeVonta Smith on the perimeter.
T.J. Hockenson entered 2021 with a credible case to be the best receiving option in the Detroit passing game. Hockenson started well but struggled before missing time with an injury. The second half of the season saw Amon-Ra St. Brown breakout before the Lions signed D.J. Chark in free agency and traded up for Jameson Williams. The addition of Williams creates more competition for Hockenson and could cap Hockenson from reaching the top three tight ends in targets in 2022.
Zach Ertz had a career resurrection in 2021 after he was traded to Arizona. He specifically took off after DeAndre Hopkins was injured. The draft and its aftermath were turbulent as Arizona traded for Marquise Brown to add to the wide receiver corps to join Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore. The Cardinals then selected Trey McBride in the second round of the NFL Draft. McBride is not likely an immediate threat to Ertz’s workshare in 2022 but could cap Ertz’s upside in 2022 and 2023. The McBride selection caused Ertz to fall about one round in cost, but at a mid TE2 cost, Ertz has the upside to make a difference.
Albert Okwuegbunam was an early off-season beneficiary of the Russell Wilson trade as Noah Fant was sent to Seattle. This cleared the way for Okwuegbunam to be the TE1 in the Denver offense. However, the Broncos selected Greg Dulcich in the third round of the draft which brings more competition to the position. Dulcich was the third tight end selected in the draft and has more draft pedigree than Okwuegbunam. Okwuegbunam should get a clear opportunity to win the TE1 role, but Dulcich should cap Okwuegbunam’s upside and create uncertainty in the trade market about Okwuegbunam’s job security.
The move from Denver to Seattle in the Russell Wilson trade really hurts Noah Fant. The move hurts especially after it seemed for less than an hour he was going to be in Denver with Wilson before the full terms of the deal revealed Fant was being traded to Seattle. Seattle looked like a candidate to address the quarterback position in the draft or in the trade market (Baker Mayfield) but left the draft without addressing the position. This leaves Drew Lock and Geno Smith to contend for the starting job in the Seattle offense. Fant will again be in an offense without a good quarterback through his rookie contract making him more of a safe floor option than a high ceiling option.
