Thursday Showdown Week 14

Photo: Imagn Images

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Las Vegas Raiders are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Rams as 6-point favorites. The game total is set at 44.5. This line started at 5.5 and quickly moved to 6. When you start breaking down these rosters it I easy to see why. Given last week’s performances, the Rams are going to have a tough time getting two players into our optimal lineups. Raiders onslaughts are going to be more prevalent than perhaps any other slate this season. Getting unique with Raiders 5-1 builds is going to be a tall task when their target tree is so condensed, and their most viable flex in Keelan Cole will carry a roster percentage north of 30%. To differentiate my lineups, I’m willing to go down to a Captain like Mack Hollins or Van Jefferson, even with studs like Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams available.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Josh Jacobs – Quad – Limited
• Brandon Bolden – Calf – Limited
• Ameer Abdullah – Hamstring – Limited
• John Wolford – Neck – Limited
• Ben Skowronek – Shoulder - Limited

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Josh Jacobs
2. Davante Adams
3. Derek Carr
4. Mack Hollins
5. Van Jefferson

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Derek Carr $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Last week Derek Carr threw for 250 yards. Davante Adams accounted for an insane 70.8% of those yards. Even with Jalen Ramsey coverage looming, I expect Carr and Adams to be the focal point of most lineups. Adams will be the most popular Captain, making Carr at Captain with multiple Raiders pass catchers as a viable pivot in the hopes that he distributes his pass attempts more evenly this week.