Sleepers are my joint. It's a by-product of studying tape in as much depth as I do. But the term "Sleeper" isn't just the unknown or lesser-known name. There are mid-range sleepers — the player whose potential value should be far higher than the current perception.
Peyton Manning's second year with the Broncos was a perfect example. So was betting on Tom Brady making a run at Manning's record-breaking season last year.
As I told readers before the 2019 season in that iteration of this piece, "[Patrick] Mahomes is more mature than most portray him...If you want a great fantasy season, you can't write off stacking the Chiefs' offense because it's too risky...Believe in greatness before the label-givers do their job. They're always the last to recognize it.
This was also true of my recommendations of Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb, A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson before each broke out — against the grain of the consensus thought in terms of talent, scheme fit, and upside.
As I said, sleepers are my joint. We all have our share of misses, but there's a reason I'm still writing these columns after all these years, selling draft publications, and doing podcasts — and it's not my sparkling personality.
I'll be doing more of that here, but I decided to wait until most drafts were over so I could create a team of players to monitor that most didn't draft. After all, these are the truest sleepers in what's becoming a sleepless society.
Most of the All-Gut Check Team will be on your waiver wire for the first 3-5 weeks of the season. As a proponent of making preseason waiver lists of players to monitor, the more you know about players before they earn an opportunity to emerge, the more time you can devote to creating a worthwhile plan to acquire them when they earn that shot.
Here's my list of sleepers for the 2022 All-Gut Check Fantasy Team: A squad of underrated and lesser-known options who may have your competition laughing now but congratulate you later.
QB Skylar Thompson, Miami
Throwing your way to the top of the preseason leaderboard as a passer doesn't bode well for future success as a franchise starter. Since 2007, the long list of passers atop the preseason leaderboard is filled with backups or journeymen starters.
- Sage Rosenfels
- Bruce Gradkowski
- Brett Hundley
- Reid Sinnett
- Tim Boyle
- E.J. Manuel
- Kyle Sloter
- Steven Morris
- Tom Savage
- Scott Tolzien
- Ryan Nassib
- Austin Davis
- Charlie Whitehurst
- Case Keenum
- Jacoby Brissett
- Kyle Orton
- Bryan Hoyer
- Nick Foles
- Jimmy Garoppolo
The most notable exceptions are Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson over a decade ago. Statistical excellence during the preseason isn't a precursor to the real thing.
Good thing the film is more revealing and Thompson's college film reveals a quarterback that the league, scouts, and much of the media have been caught snoozing. The reasons for what could one day become a collective nap of epic proportions have to do with the system of valuing prospects, especially quarterbacks.
Although we have reasons to treat it this way for fantasy purposes, the NFL Draft is not predictive of talent. NFL teams are predictable about reinforcing their beliefs in their draft capital when players compete for roles.
We know that NFL management does not value a player solely on their football talent. The following criteria collectively have equal, if not significantly greater weight, than football talent:
- Production
- Favorable Combine/Pro Day Metrics
- Quality of College Program
- Interviews
- Prototypical Physical Measurements
- Off-Field Behavior
- Position
- Injury History/Health
- Number of Years as a Starter
These nine factors carry weight—often appropriately so. However, there's a great deal of inherent variation with scouting reports when it comes to how individuals and teams not only define and weigh the value of film performance but also these other nine factors. It's why teams passed over some of the great players in the game.
But Matt, Tom Brady, Priest Holmes, Kurt Warner, Adam Thielen, and Terrell Davis are the exceptions that prove the rule that draft capital is predictive of talent.
Not so. Draft capital dictates the degree of initial financial investment and in all but exceptional cases, NFL management dictates that the most expensive investments earn every opportunity to contribute early. Most NFL coaches have to get permission from their front office to have an open competition for a starting role between players with low and high draft capital. Doug Marrone asking the Jaguars' permission to allow James Robinson to compete with Leonard Fournette was not an exceptional circumstance.
Players with low draft capital earn far fewer reps in meaningful practice moments and it reinforces an existing confirmation bias based on dollar amounts invested into players. A player with strong draft capital can make multiple mistakes during a series of reps and the decision makers will provide patient rationalizations ("he'll figure it out in time") compared to a player with weaker draft capital making one similar mistake out of far fewer reps ("see, we knew he wasn't that good.").
This is the hill Skylar Thompson had to climb this offseason to force the Dolphins to keep him on its depth chart. Thompson was a top recruit at his position but he played in a Kansas State offense that wasn't a high-octane passing game if judging by the number of attempts. Thompson played in the same run-heavy, play-action variant of the West Coast Offense as Trey Lance.
Thompson also got hurt during his career and didn't play with top prospects in his receiving corps. Despite his film and Next Gen stats having some eye-catching material, K-State's second-tier Division-I program, his lack of top production, and injury, made him an also-ran in this draft class.
Senior Bowl Director Jim Nagy was on a K-State radio show around this time last summer on the heels of Thompson turning the heads of scouts and coaches at the Manning Camp. Nagy told the hosts that multiple people told him that Thompson was the notable performer and his arm was much better than they anticipated.
When asked what Thompson would have to do to earn a Senior Bowl invitation, Nagy essentially stated that production would be the key. Production can be indicative of good film, but good film can be independent of top production. Good scouting is valuing the process ahead of the results.
Although it appears that the Shrine Game is trying to compete with the Senior Bowl for the top prospects and not settle for being an all-star game for the fringe options, the event hasn't earned this status (yet) and Thompson's invitation was another layer of confirmation of his low draft capital.
Thompson's low-error, highly productive summer as a passer, decision-maker, and coordinator of alignments impressed Mike McDaniels enough to force Miami to keep him. When a team keeps a player with a low or non-existent draft capital, it often means the team sees that player as a capable reserve who could earn a contributing role off the bench as a long-term part of the team.
"Long-term" is relative when talking about the NFL.
However, when a team makes room for a quarterback — a position where the depth chart allotment is typically minimal — it's a weightier statement about what the team sees in Thompson.
Don't expect Thompson to leapfrog Teddy Bridgewater on the depth chart if the Dolphins are a competitive team and Tua Tagovailoa suffers an injury or falters. If Miami is out of contention, that's a different matter and it will be a perfect time for them to evaluate Thompson in a similar manner the Texans evaluated Davis Mills last year, or the Bengals checked out Ryan Finley a few years earlier.
I'm a believer in Thompson's talent. He was the RSP's No.1 pre-draft quarterback and his grade was significantly higher than his peers. Even so, I cautioned subscribers to understand the weight of draft capital.
Thompson's odds of earning playing time and becoming as good as my scouting report suggests have climbed from "almost nil" to "improbable," between May and August. As hefty of a leap that is odds-wise, it's still not at a point where he's worth serious consideration for all but deep dynasty rosters.
It is at a point where Thompson's potential for an opportunity is worth monitoring in all formats. Although far fewer civilians are sleeping on him as deeply as they were in May, you will likely get Thompson on the cheap if there's a fateful intersection between your need for a reserve quarterback and the rookie's opportunity to play
If it's an extended opportunity, I believe Thompson can become one of the significant anomalies of draft history.
If you want to listen to Russ Lande and I talk about these dynamics with talent and fit, preseason and free agency, and the impact of draft capital on players and coaches, this new episode of RSP Scout Talk is a must-listen.
QB Malik Willis, Tennessee
Willis is a rare athlete and rare athletes earn opportunities to develop into competent starters, especially quarterbacks. Michael Vick, Steve McNair, Randall Cunningham, Steve Young, and Colin Kaepernick are prominent examples. Regardless of athletic ability, the best quarterbacks process the game with speed and confidence, especially from the pocket. Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson do this well. Kyler Murray is a mixed bag.
Vick and Kaepernick? Not at the level of a top franchise quarterback over a consistent period of time. Cunningham got better at it but didn't reach the heights of McNair or Young. And, I'd argue if McNair had Randy Moss, grouping him with Young in any manner would appear far more logical.
Willis has made some wow plays against aspiring pros during the preseason. He'll make them against established pros when an opportunity arises in Tennessee. The real question is whether he can execute the details that differentiate top NFL players from top NFL prospects.
Right now, Willis is a prospect with flashy plays on his preseason and camp resume and much to prove before earning the title of a franchise player. This isn't his fault.
It's also to his benefit that NFL opponents typically wait several weeks to implement game plan tweaks rooted in its scouting reports on a quarterback. This is why the likes of Drew Lock, Mitchell Trubisky, and arguably, Baker Mayfield, show promise early in their careers, and then the wheels slowly fall off.
Another way of putting it? It takes 8-12 games to determine if a prospect will acclimate enough to perform similar to his collegiate tape. It takes 18-24 games to truly see if that prospect will grow beyond his collegiate tendencies and beat NFL defenses and athletes who can test his flaws.
If Willis earns the starting role, enjoy the NFL honeymoon because it will lead to fantasy production worth using. Beyond this year? I'm skeptical.
A note about Running Back Play
One of the most meaningful things I've heard Kyle Shanahan tell the media about how most teams make personnel decisions with a specific position was when I heard him talk about JaMycal Hasty a few years ago. After Hasty had some productive moments during a regular-season game, Shanahan explained that Hasty looked good in practices, but teams really never know what they have in a running back until they see him in live action.
This makes sense because the degree of processing difficulty ramps up several notches in live action compared to drills, scrimmages, and preseason games. Knowing that coaches have an added layer of evaluation for the position behind the scenes during the season, players with quality college film who didn't earn strong rep counts due to low draft capital can make a move up the depth chart as the season plays out.
Three of these running backs headline this list.
RB Jordan Mason, San Francisco
Although Mason was not close to one of my top-graded rookies at his position, he has a specific set of skills that put him near the top of his class in two areas: pass-catching and his potential fit for gap blocking. Mason has a similar frame and shiftiness as Alfred Morris, but Mason also has top-end speed and mitts that Morris lacked.
The potential to perform well behind gap blocking is notable because of Shanahan and the 49ers. Although San Francisco is renowned for its use of the wide zone scheme, Shanahan prefers players who grade well as potential gap scheme runners. He likes fast backs who hit creases decisively and don't look for cutbacks as often as many prospects traditionally experienced with various iterations of zone blocking.
Tevin Coleman was a wide zone runner at Indiana but didn't run it with great nuance. Shanahan used Coleman behind more gap schemes in Atlanta after Coleman initially struggled. Jerrick McKinnon was an option quarterback who had no wide zone experience but could run Toss (a perimeter gap scheme play). The 49ers use a mix of wide zone and gap blocking like Toss in its offense and value decisive backs whose flaws tend to be a lack of nuance, efficiency, and creativity with setting up defenders.
Shanahan's 49ers don't need this from a back. Mason may develop it, but it's not in his wheelhouse to a high degree right now. It is with Tyrion Davis-Price's game, who is the favorite to emerge as a contributor before Mason. Davis-Price also had a late-round ADP whereas Mason wasn't a consideration in any format but the deepest of dynasty leagues.
49ers beat writer Kyle Posey is a former player, a past guest on my RSP Film Rooms (we did a fine one on Tyler Lockett years ago), and a league mate of mine. Posey shared on Twitter that if you removed the names from the jerseys during practice, Mason and Trey Sermon looked like the two best backs on the team.
Again, football practice has a lot of differences from games, but Mason earned his roster spot from practice and if he shows more early in the year, he could leapfrog a few backs.
RB Trey Sermon, Philadelphia
Posey also reported that the Eagles tried to make a deal for Sermon before roster cuts. Most fantasy GMs who follow my work were expecting joyous words of hope from me about Sermon leaving the 49ers and arriving in Philadelphia.
They were disappointed.
And while I wish I could tell you I was shocked with your crestfallen reaction to my caution, you guys forget that talent is just one of several factors that drive a player's opportunity for playing time and production. I still believe in Sermon's talent and, if he can prove that he can put the 49ers' experience in the rearview mirror and the Eagles are open to using him as a significant contributor, he can play to this talent.
San Francisco was the place I projected pre-draft as the worst possible fit for Sermon in the pre-draft RSP. He's a cutback runner with very good decision-making in situations where he's not asked to robotically hit where a hole is supposed to be, damned the consequences. I had changed my mind on Sermon's fit in my Post-Draft RSP because the drafting of Trey Lance seemed like a precursor for more inside running.
Shanahan clearly wasn't on the same page with GM John Lynch on drafting Sermon. I'm not alone among the running back community of coaches and scouts I know who think Sermon was not nearly as bad as the media labeled it last year ("no juice," "not finding creases," etc.). Even some of the criticism I saw from media this summer was incomplete analysis, at best.
Despite working with Dalvin Cook during the offseason to improve his skills with the wide zone scheme and developing more speed to his athletic profile, Sermon struggled with the way the 49ers wanted him to run the scheme during the preseason, at least with limited reps. You could see Sermon spotting logical cutback choices and then resisting the decision because he was trying to override his ingrained behavior for what the 49ers teach. This slowed him down at times.
He was just not a good fit there.
Think about the backs Shanahan handpicked: Coleman, Mostert, and McKinnon. Two of those three are below-average decision-makers in most offensive systems. "Draino" is Eli Mitchell's nickname from the team because he hits the hole so quickly and hard. There's also an unintended pejorative context for this -- he doesn't have great decision-making and footwork when forced away from the design of the play.
Mostert was the best decision-maker of the bunch in terms of running any system.
Still, the way Sermon's situation played out last year obviously hurt his fantasy value and the odds of him truly getting to be what I think he can do based on his college film is at least temporarily diminished for three reasons:
- He'll be labeled a backup due to what he did in SF as coaches are lazy that way with all they have to do. They don't really know what they have with guys labeled reserves unless forced to use them.
- Sermon's confidence could be diminished, especially if he began questioning his decision-making to change how he ran. Playing to the speed of instinct requires confidence and he had to change his methodology.
- He may need an injury to get a shot to prove he's more than a reserve. Even if he earns the backup role by midseason with a team.
The fact that he's on the active roster after getting cut is a positive. Especially when the Eagles also acquired LaMical Perine from waivers. Sermon is also fourth on the depth chart and doesn't know the offense, so maintain a balanced perspective.
The Eagles run a lot of inside zone which is s a better fit for Sermon and something Miles Sanders struggled with. Other than Sanders, Sermon is the only other back with the size of a feature back. Boston Scott is rugged, but it's clear the Eagles are wary about giving him a huge workload. Gainwell is a satellite back at his size.
If Sanders falters and Sermon can play with confidence and knowledge in a role that fits his skills, he could earn a role in a three-headed committee. If he plays to his potential, he could take over as the lead. A big if, but all of these players on the All-Gut Check squad are waiting on ifs to happen. Monitor Sermon's progress and if he earns spot duty and performs well, he'll be a preemptive pickup.
RB Keaontay Ingram, Arizona
Heading into training camp, there was good reason to believe that Darrel Williams would be the No.2 back behind James Conner and Ingram would be the No.3 with an opportunity to move up the depth chart if he showed in regular-season games that he could be assignment sound and play to his speed on college tape.
That was before Eno Benjamin shocked the coaching staff with his improvement as a pass protector. This unlocked his viability as a useful runner and receiver and limited Ingram's opportunities to shine in all but limited reps.
The fact that the Cardinals kept Ingram on the active roster despite Benjamin's rise and limited reps is a notable thing. It indicates that the team values what it saw from the rookie and didn't want to risk losing him in an attempt to cut and re-sign to the practice squad.
Consider Benjamin and Williams as the 1-2 punch contingency if Conner falters. But if one of Benjamin or Williams falters, Ingram could easily be a part of that 1-2 punch. He has the talent to overtake both and force the Cardinals to consider him as their starter of the future.
RB Joshua Kelley, L.A. Chargers
I know, I know, Kelley faltered under the lights during his rookie year. However, like Benjamin, Kelley showed enough in training camp this year to earn the No.2 job despite the Chargers drafting backs in two consecutive years to replace him.
Isaiah Spiller may still show enough to do so at some point, possibly this year. It doesn't mean that you should write off Kelley, who has the athletic ability and build of a starter as well as solid hands. If reports of better decision-making are true, he could emerge as a contributor.
After all, he leap-frogged Justin Jackson this summer, making the veteran expendable. And while Jackson didn't make a loaded Detroit roster, he looked good in the preseason. Kelly's worth being on your Waiver Wire Rolodex.
Wr Josh Reynolds, Detroit
From Weeks 12-15, Reynolds was the No.16 fantasy receiver, averaging 13.5 points per game. This was on a Lions offense that was banged up and Reynolds coming off an Achilles strain during an uneventful summer in Tennessee that cost him a job there.
Not bad for a late arrival to the team. Reynolds will be a starter-rotational contributor to begin the year and Jameson Williams will probably be away from the field for at least another 8-10 weeks.
While Reynolds is likely the third or fourth option, at best on most passing-down plays behind T.J. Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, and/or DAndre Swift, an injury to Chark could make Reynolds a meaningful contributor in short order.
He has a good rapport with Jared Goff from their years with the Rams he can win both inside and outside the hash.
WR Byron Pringle, Chicago
Pringle begins the season as the third option in this passing attack behind Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. He has earned his NFL reputation as a return specialist and slot receiver who built a good rapport with Patrick Mahomes II — good enough to deliver in the red zone when called upon in limited reps.
What many don't realize about Pringle is his vertical speed. He can get behind defenses and could emerge as an occasional big-play weapon on play-action vertical shots that we'll see Justin Fields take more often in Chicago.
If Mooney gets hurt, Pringle could wind up the most reliable receiver on a team in need of options. The same could be said of Dante Pettis, but Pringle might get the first shot.
WR Calvin Austin, Pittsburgh
A foot injury has Austin on short-term IR. However, his speed and open-field prowess wowed his teammates. His route running and body positioning at the catch point is good enough that he could emerge into a role player with more to give if the opportunity presents itself.
I think he's a better talent than WanDale Robinson but had less buzz. If he weren't on a loaded depth chart with uncertainty at quarterback, Austin would be more of a thing. Keep in mind Chase Claypool hasn't really built on his scintillating six-game debut as a pro and they are moving him to the slot.
If Claypool falters, Austin's speed and YAC could make him a compelling replacement no one sees coming.
WR Denzel Mims, NY Jets
I love that Mims believes in his talent enough to demand a trade and then show up in preseason games to make his request appear compelling. I love that he battled back from his second-year blues after a regime change and food poisoning that put him behind the curve.
Before the preseason, my early projections had Mims eventually taking over for Corey Davis, whose tenure with the Jets could be closer to its end than its beginning. It wouldn't shock me if a Davis injury opens the door for Mims to step in and send Davis packing in 2023.
WR Richie James, NY Giants
Robinson has performed well as a rookie in training camp. Whether this carries over to the regular season is still a unknown. What I do know is that James has shown up in the regular season, sometimes in a big way, when given limited opportunities.
Labeled a special teams option and reserve receiver, James could emerge if Robinson gets hurt because his skills provide redundancy for what New York is planning to do with Robinson schematically.
WR Quintez Cephus, Detroit
He's slow(ish) for a receiver, but he is acrobatic, physical, and wins tough targets in tight coverage at big moments. He did this repeatedly with Goff early last year before breaking his collarbone. If the receiving corps is decimated with injuries, Cephus could be that break-the-glass bye-week presence.
It might even happen with healthy receivers because gamers tend to find their way into games.
Wr Bryan Edwards, Atlanta
The only compelling fantasy options in Atlanta are Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts. Yet, if the quarterbacks play behind my expectations, Edwards could be that third option worth having on a roster. He wins the football and has strong skills in the open field. Getting open and being on the same page with his quarterback has been the bigger question mark.
WR Kyle Philips, Titans
Teammates in Tennessee have said Phillips has been a difficult guy to cover. Here's the thing about training camp and covering receivers: Drills and scrimmages often give slot receivers with a penchant for moves-upon-moves a big advantage. Braxton Miller and Andy Isabella were practice darlings for these reasons.
This was my concern with Philips at UCLA.
As noted in my analysis of Philips, if he could tame this predilection for too many moves, he could become an NFL starter in the slot. The early returns indicate that he has earned Ryan Tannehill's trust.
If this is true and continues to be the case during the season with no lapses into playground route running, the most productive rookie receiver in Tennessee won't be Treylon Burks.
A Sit-Down about Isaiah Likely
Before we get to my tight ends, let's discuss Likely. I fielded multiple questions about Likely in a recent AMA on Discord for FBG subscribers. Sigmund Bloom got excited about Likely's early showing in OTAs and Likely's continued to string together strong performances as a receiver on a receiver-poor offense.
Now there are reports that Likely is essentially the third receiver in this passing game. Even Mark Andrews told the media this week that Likely will shock people this year and that he's a willing blocker.
If judging this statement from the mouth of one "willing blocker" about another, I'm rolling with Nick Boyle as the second tight end but open to the idea that Likely will be an active third tight end who functions a lot more as a receiver in a tight end's clothing.
While this sounds exciting, do me a favor and name me a fantasy-relevant third receiver during the Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore who does not also run the football.
You can't.
Rashod Bateman was the third option last year with 515 yards and 1 touchdown. In 2020, Willie Snead had 432 yards and 3 scores. Snead was also the No. 3 in 2019 with 339 yards and 5 scores.
At best, we're talking about a low-end fantasy TE2 in two-tight-end fantasy formats.
I'm never surprised about the idea of Lamar Jackson exceeding expectations, so perhaps this is the year he supports three fantasy receivers in this offense. It's worth considering, but I also think Likely's buzz will make him overvalued.
So let's look at some undervalued options with greater potential upside relative to their value.
TE Jody Fortson, Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes II trusted Fortson a couple of years ago early in the 2021 season. He had five catches and two touchdowns before suffering a season-ending injury. This summer, Fortson and Mahomes still showcased a rapport and with the Chiefs' plan of spreading the ball around more than ever, don't be surprised if Fortson becomes a bye-week option.
If Travis Kelce misses significant time, Fortson could be the name to remember, not Noah Gray or Blake Bell — and Gray is a compelling name to watch, but Fortson's rapport and big plays shouldn't be ignored.
TE Foster Moreau, Las Vegas
I've spent the entire offseason writing about Moreau where possible. He should be at the front of your Waiver Wire Rolodex. If the Raiders unveil their offense with two tight ends as more prominent than people realize, Mack Hollins could be a distant fourth or fifth option, while Moreau becomes far more compelling for fantasy GMs.
TE Tyler Conklin, NY Jets
I've long been a Conklin fan as a developmental option, and he looked good during his final season with the Vikings. He's also earned admiration from this former Jets scout as a potential season in free agency for the team.
Conklin is essentially a Darren Waller archetype at his position but lacks Waller's elite athletic ability as a receiver but significantly better-blocking skills. He's quicker than fast and can beat man-to-man coverage off the line with those quicks. He also wins contested plays at the catch point.
He could be a good early-season addition to shore up your tight end depth chart while Joe Flacco is in the lineup because Flacco has been good with target tight ends who get open. His long-term value may take a dip if Zach Wilson plays as he did as a rookie. Still, don't rule out Conklin as a potential value all year because the skills are there if the offense goes his way.
Good luck this week, and may all your fantasy football calls come true.
Follow Matt Waldman on Twitter: @mattwaldman
YouTube Channel: RSP Film Room
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