Sunday Showdown Week 3

Photo: Imagn Images

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Denver to take on the Broncos as 1.5-point favorites. The game total is set at 44. Sunday night sets up well for multiple game environments whether it be a low-scoring grind or a high-scoring shootout. The field is most likely to lean into a slow-paced ground game for both teams, so we will focus on working in the passing offenses. Jimmy Garoppolo is taking over for Trey Lance after he suffered a gruesome ankle injury. Garoppolo’s favorite target in George Kittle is simultaneously making his triumphant return. With the 49ers' injured backfield they have a realistic chance to lean on the passing game for once as they rank 31^st in passing rate. On the other hand, the Broncos may be ironically shifting to a more run-heavy approach over “letting Russ cook”. Both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon are projected to see at least 10 carries.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Trey Lance – Ankle – Season-ending IR

Elijah Mitchell – MCL – Short-term IR

Tyrion Davis-Price – Ankle – Out

Jerry Jeudy – Ribs/Shoulder – Limited Friday

K.J. Hamler – Knee/Hip – Full Friday

Tyrie Cleveland – Hamstring – Did not participate Friday

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Deebo Samuel
2. Jeff Wilson
3. Javonte Williams
4. George Kittle
5. Jimmy Garoppolo

49ERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jimmy Garoppolo $9,000 – Captain or Flex

In 2021 under Jimmy Garoppolo the 49ers ranked 29^th in passing rate. Both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle finished in the top-40 in receptions while Samuel finished 5^th in yards. Garoppolo is expected to pass at a modest rate and heavily target two of the league's most efficient pass catchers in Kittle and Samuel. This season Kyle Shanahan has kept Brandon Aiyuk out of the doghouse and given him a near 100% snap share. This muddies the receiving corps for an offense that we project to pass just 29 times, but it is good news for Garoppolo. Even on limited attempts, Garoppolo is a strong option in an offense we’re going to look to stack heavily.