Sunday Showdown Week 18

Photo: Imagn Images

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Detroit Lions are heading to Green Bay to take on the Packers as 4.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 49. The Lions are an incredibly balanced offense in terms of pass rate, but it’s overshadowed by how efficient they are through the air. We’re going to want to lean heavily on the Lions’ passing attack, but the issue is just how obscure Detroit’s passing depth is. Aside from Amon-Ra St. Brown, we don’t feel great about any of their receivers. We’ll look to stack Rodgers with some of his lower-rostered receiving options so we can comfortably fit the more popular Lions.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Josiah Deguara – Calf – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. Jared Goff
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. A.J. Dillon
5. Aaron Jones

DETRIOT OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff $9,600 – Captain or Flex

Last week’s win over the Bears broke a 5-game streak of 30 or more pass attempts for Goff. It didn’t seem to matter as he still passed for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s hit the 300-yard-bonus 5 times while passing for at least 3 touchdowns another 5 times. He’s got one of the safest floors and highest ceilings of the slate while being priced under $10,000. In small field tournaments, he will not land in the Captain spot because of how few of his receivers I’m looking to play. In large-field multi-entry tournaments, he can be used as Captain while cycling through various stacking combinations with his lower-rostered receivers.