Receivers with Great or Bad Matchups Week 16

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This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchups

WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs NYG) vs Fabian Moreau

Jefferson is a must-start in any format, week in and week out. However, this week he has a great matchup to go on top of being one of the best receivers in the league. Moreau has been operating as a shadow corner in recent weeks and has had poor showings against Terry McLaurin and Devonta Smith. Over the past two months, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers as well as the third-most to perimeter receivers. Fire up Jefferson with confidence and seriously consider him in daily formats despite the high price.

WR Mike Evans (TB vs ARZ) vs Marco Wilson

The season continues to go from bad to worse for Arizona as a rash of injuries has decimated almost the entire team. They played last week without all three of their top corners, and it is still up in the air as to who is going to play this week. Even if Wilson plays, he is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap, and the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers. The entire Tampa Bay receiving group can be upgraded this week.

WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs DAL) vs Kelvin Joseph

With Jalen Hurts trending towards being out and Gardner Minshew looking to be the starting quarterback, there are a lot of people coming off of Brown. This should not be the case, as he will see a lot of Joseph in coverage based on alignment. Trevon Diggs has not shadowed much this year and is not expected to this week. Joseph is allowing 0.76 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 26% of the time. Look for Brown to be targeted early and often as a safety valve for whoever is under center this week.

WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs KC) vs Joshua Williams

Seattle has had a rough few weeks overall and will not have a much easier test with Kansas City. However, Metcalf gets a great matchup on the left side of the field against Williams. The big receiver lines up on the left side of the formation 61% of the time and will see Williams often. Williams is currently allowing 0.50 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted over 20% of the time. This is the clear weak spot in the Kansas City defense and should be exploited by the strength of the Seattle offense. Look for Metcalf to lead all receivers in this matchup.

WR Darius Slayton (NYG vs MIN) vs Cameron Dantzler

Minnesota has been one of the worst secondaries this season. They have allowed the second-most points to perimeter receivers and receivers overall as well as the most over the past two months. Dantzler has dealt with injuries off and on this season and has not provided any sort of boost when in the lineup. He is currently allowing 0.48 fantasy points per coverage snap and will see a lot of Slayton this week. Slayton is the best downfield threat for the Giants and has a chance at a big game this week.

WR Elijah Moore (NYJ vs JAX) vs Tre Herndon

Even with Zach Wilson under center, this matchup is too good to pass up. Moore is a sneaky FLEX or sleeper play this week against Herndon. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers as teams have tried to avoid Ahmad Gardner on the outside. Herndon is currently allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage snap and is likely to be picked on the rest of the season as the perimeter receivers continue to play well.

TE Mark Andrews (BAL vs ATL)

It has not been a great string of games for Andrews, and it has had fantasy managers questioning if they can start him. Lamar Jackson did not practice again on Wednesday and is trending toward not playing this week. However, the Falcons have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have been a favorable matchup for anyone who catches the ball.

TE Pat Freiermuth (PIT vs LV)

Freiermuth has also had a rough string of games and is coming off a week without a single catch. He is also walking into a great matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed six touchdowns and the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. He is a borderline TE1 this week but does have risks associated with starting him. Freiermuth has enough top-10 finishes this season to trust putting him out in the fantasy playoffs.