Receivers with Great or Bad Matchups Week 7

Photo: Imagn Images

This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchup:

WR A.J. Green (ARZ vs NO) vs Paulson Adebo

The flashy story this week is the return of DeAndre Hopkins and how he will not have to face Marshon Lattimore who is out with an abdomen injury. In his first game back there is no telling what Hopkins is going to look like. However, the Saints are currently allowing the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the second most to those lined up outside. This also includes the most to the right side as Adebo has allowed an astonishing 353 yards and 6 touchdowns on the right. This is where Green lines up roughly 80% of the time. He should also see a boost in targets with Marquise Brown out with injury. There are a lot of people who have been waiting on Hopkins, but they may be disappointed with Green projected to line up against the corner allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. Look at Green to be a sleeper play this week with massive potential.

WR Michael Pittman (IND vs TEN) vs Terrance Mitchell

Tennessee is coming off their Bye week but have still allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. They have been solid against slot receivers, but have struggled with those on the perimeter. Mitchell has really struggled and is allowing 0.46 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. The Colts like to move their receivers around and Pittman should also see several snaps against Kristian Fulton. Look for Pittman to approach double-digit targets again this week and have a field day against this perimeter defense.

WR Romeo Doubs (GB vs WAS) vs William Jackson III

It has been tough for receivers in Green Bay so far this year. Even Aaron Rodgers has not been able to make this unit look great. Doubs has had issues with drops, but also showed a nose for the end zone earlier this year. With Allen Lazard returning from injury it has freed up Doubs to run free across the field. He is also walking into a great matchup against Jackson who has struggled mightily so far this season. He is currently allowing 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 28% of the time. After the letdown against the Jets last week, look for Doubs and the Packers to get back on track against this Washington defense.

WR Tyreek Hill (MIA vs PIT) vs Levi Wallace

It can be hard to predict who will be on Hill since he liens up all over the field. The numbers say Wallace will see him at least 40% of the time and that gives a steep advantage to Hill. Wallace is currently allowing 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being picked on nearly 27% of the time by opposing quarterbacks. The Dolphins have a stable of weapons at almost every offensive position and Wallace will struggle to cover any of those lined up against him. The numbers put Hill at the top of that list this week and should result in a great game for Hill.

WR Chris Godwin (TB vs CAR) vs Myles Hartsfield

Tampa Bay is a disappointing 3-3 so far this season and Tom Brady has struggled to get the ball out. That could all change this week with Godwin lining up against Hartsfield. The young slot corner is currently allowing 0.50 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 28% of the time. Godwin has looked better each week and may finally be fully healthy. Look for Brady to get the ball out quick and target Godwin on quick slants and outs to move the chains this week. There should be plenty of volume and Godwin should finish as a top-10 receiver this week.

TE David Njoku (CLE vs BAL)

Njoku continues to impress this season and has continued his streak of top-10 finishes. He has at least 8.8 fantasy points in each of his last 4 games and is averaging 14.3 in that same time frame. He will be taking on a Baltimore defense that has struggled to cover the position and has allowed 11-plus points 4 times so far this year. Njoku has the making of a top 5 tight end this season if the Browns continue to target him at the same rate. Look for another solid week against Baltimore.

TE Gerald Everett (LAC vs SEA)

There are a lot of different things at play for this game. There is the potential return of Keenan Allen and the targets it will take away as well as Everett playing as a boom-or-bust type tight end. However, this comes as a revenge game against his former team and a defense that is allowing 20+ fantasy points per game to tight ends through 6 weeks. This defense has not been able to cover tight ends at all and Everett should benefit. He is a great streaming option if you do not already have one of the top plays this week.

Unfavorable Matchup:

WR Tyler Boyd (CIN vs ATL) vs Isaiah Oliver

It may just be a small sample size, but Oliver has been solid to start the year. He is allowing just 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 13% of the time. He will matchup against Boyd this week who has been all over the place. The Bengals’ offense has struggled at times and does not look like the explosive squad form a year ago. The emergence of Tee Higgins has put a dent in the number of targets for Boyd and that should continue again this week. Look for other contributors outside of Boyd against Oliver this week.

WR Drake London (ATL vs CIN) vs Chidobe Awuzie

Awuzie has been an unstoppable force to start the season for the Bengals. He has been one of the few bright spots for this secondary and should see the majority of his snaps against London. This is not a shadow type situation despite both players moving all over the field. Awuzie is allowing just 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap to start the season and is being targeted less than 17% of the time. London has played well for a rookie, but he is an inconsistent offense that is not ready to feature him yet. London is more of a WR3/ Flex type of play this week if needed.

WR DeVante Parker (NE vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson

The Bears defense has been solid against receivers so far this year. They are allowing the 4^th fewest points to receivers overall as well as the 4^th fewest to the perimeter and the 2^nd fewest to the slot. Parker has stepped up with Mac Jones out and is helping to lead this offense. However, he will be walking into a tough matchup against Johnson who is currently allowing just 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 15% of the time. This should not be much of a shadow situation but historically they line up on the same side nearly 70% of the time. Downgrade Parker in a tough matchup this week.

WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs NYJ) vs D.J. Reed

The Jets have played well against receivers so far this year. They are currently allowing the 9^th fewest fantasy points to receivers and the 4^th fewest to outside receivers. Sutton, who lines up outside 80% of the time, will see a lot of Reed. The Broncos have failed to produce in the red zone and Russell Wilson his missed a lot of throws. In years past, this matchup would heavily favor the Broncos, but the Jets have been playing well and the Broncos struggling. Downgrade this receiving group against a tough Jets’ secondary.

WR Hunter Renfrow (LV vs HOU) vs Desmond King

Renfrow is expected back from injury this week and will walk right into a tough matchup against King. The slot corner is currently allowing just 0.11 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 6% of the time. The Raiders have gone run heavy with the success of Josh Jacobs and Renfrow will have more competition than usual with Davante Adams and Darren Waller taking targets. It may be good to wait on Renfrow and see how he factors into this offense going forward before trusting him with a starting spot.

WR D.J. Moore (CAR vs TB) vs Jamel Dean

The Panthers have been a tough offense to watch so far and Moore has fallen more than anyone. He saw a slight bump with Baker Mayfield out due to injury, but he is walking into a tough matchup against Dean this week. The perimeter corner is allowing just 0.17 fantasy points per coverage snap even with the excessive number of targets. The offense has struggled, and this defense has been on the field a lot. Dean continues to play well and should limit Moore again this week.

TE Mike Gesicki (MIA vs PIT)

It would be easy to want to start Gesicki after he scored a pair of touchdowns last week against the Vikings. However, he has been inconsistent at best so far this year and failed to score more than 4.3 points on 4 separate occasions this year. He is also taking on a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed a single tight end to eclipse 9.6 fantasy points this year. He may have shown a high ceiling last week, but the floor is too low in a tough matchup this week. Avoid Gesicki if possible.

TE Daniel Bellinger (NYG vs JAX)

Bellinger has been a waiver wire name all week after scoring 25+ fantasy points in the past 2 weeks. However, this is a buyer-beware situation as he has seen more than 3 targets just twice this entire season. He is also walking into a tough matchup against a Jaguars’ defense that has allowed a single touchdown to the position and averaging under 10 points per game to tight ends. Bellinger has been a fun story, but is worth skipping this week in a tough matchup.