See quarterbacks to monitor on rookie contracts
Contracts can be a good source of dynasty information, including for injury and performance security. Below are the nine veteran quarterback contracts to watch in the next year that have dynasty implications.
Jared Goff will enter 2023 with no more guaranteed money with 30.7- and 31.7-million-dollar cap hits in the final two seasons of his contract. The Lions could save 20.7 and 26.7 million dollars by cutting Goff in the next two offseasons, but it is not a foregone conclusion the Lions will do so. Goff’s cap hit in 2022 is 14.3% and the fourth-highest cap hit in the league. Both figures will drop in the next two seasons and make Goff more affordable relative to the salary cap and the quarterback position across the league. Much of the analysis of the Matthew Stafford trade assumed the Lions received additional draft capital because they were willing to take on Goff’s contract, but there has been no evidence since the trade that is true. The Lions have passed on the quarterback position in consecutive classes, including in 2022 when they were widely mocked to select Malik Willis at number two overall, and he was available much later, including when the Lions traded up for Jameson Williams. The Lions have built a quality offense, including two first-round tackles, a first-round center, T.J. Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Williams, and D'Andre Swift. This is a quality supporting cast for a 28-year-old Jared Goff and makes Goff a good candidate to target if looking to fix quarterback in the near term.
Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos in March with two years and 51 million dollars left on his contract, which is very similar to the remainder of Matthew Stafford’s contract when he was traded to the Rams in 2021. The Rams played out the season, before extending Stafford after the Super Bowl victory. After coming off an injury and a poor finish in 2021, the Broncos look like a candidate to play out 2022 before addressing Wilson’s contract in 2023.
2023 will be the final year of Ryan Tannehill’s contract. Tannehill is due 27 million dollars and a 36.6-million-dollar cap hit. There is no guaranteed money left on Tannehill’s team, and the Titans could save 17.8 million dollars against the cap. Tennessee drafted Malik Willis in the third round, but there is no guarantee with the investment that he is the next quarterback for the Titans. Tannehill is in a year-to-year starting window at this point of his career but should continue to get an opportunity as a starter in 2023 if not in Tennessee.
Kirk Cousins was given a one-year extension which is fully guaranteed in 2023. The contract features a cap hit of 36.25 million dollars and a no-trade clause, but this should not rule out a trade. Cousins will be 35 in 2023 and could potentially pick a destination if the Vikings want to reset their franchise course, and the Vikings could save 17.5 million dollars against the cap by trading him in 2023. Either way, Cousins should be a starter over at least the next two-year window.
Jameis Winston signed a two-year deal early this offseason, but there is no guaranteed money for 2023. However, every other aspect of the situation points to a two-year deal, as Winston would have a dead money figure of 11.2 million dollars with only 4.4 million dollars saved against the cap in 2023 if he is cut. Likewise, the team traded their 2023 first-round pick to trade into the 2022 class, so there are limited options for how the team could address the position in the draft. With Michael Thomas returning, the signing of Jarvis Landry, and the selection of Chris Olave, Winston has a potentially strong receiving core in 2022.
Other Quarterbacks
Mitchell Trubisky and Marcus Mariota both signed two-year contracts as free agents in 2022 with no guaranteed money after this season. The Steelers could save 8 million dollars of Trubisky’s 10.625-million-dollar cap figure in 2023. Trubisky could compete against rookie Kenny Pickett in 2022 with a contract allowing for flexibility after the season. The Falcons could save 12 million dollars of his 14.5-million-dollar cap figure by cutting Mariota in 2023.
Jimmy Garoppolo and Tom Brady are both in the final seasons of their contract. Garroppolo could still be traded or cut in the offseason while Brady is locked in as the starter for Tampa Bay. Notably, Tom Brady has a no franchise tag clause in his contract, which guarantees he will be a free agent if he wants to be in 2023.
