Photo: Imagn Images

From 2013 to 2020, there were 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round. Not one of them posted a top-50 fantasy season as a rookie. Against all odds, Amon-Ra St. Brown had a great rookie season and finished as the WR21 in 2021. Now, heading into Year 2, the hype train is barreling down a mountain with no brakes. According to Underdog’s best ball ADP, he’s getting drafted ahead of DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman, Marquise Brown, and a handful of productive veterans. There’s a lot to get excited about when looking at his rookie production as a whole, but I’m not entirely sold yet. His situation is highly reminiscent of another rookie who failed to live up to expectations in his sophomore campaign.

Let’s start by looking at why people are getting so excited. Posting 900-plus yards as a rookie is a challenging benchmark to hit and is pretty indicative of future success. In the last 20 years, only 29 rookies have eclipsed that mark.

Guys like Willie Snead, Sammy Watkins, and Michael Clayton were flashes in the pan, while most went on to have successful careers. The jury is still out on Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and some others, but it’s safe to say that it is a pretty strong group of receivers in the “900 Yards as a Rookie” sample. However, I worry that Amon-Ra St. Brown could be one of the outliers due to his unique situation as a rookie.

The Brandon Aiyuk Dilemma

Let’s start by talking about the 2020 San Francisco 49ers. This probably makes no sense right now, but please bear with me. This offense runs through Deebo Samuel when healthy, as we clearly saw last year. George Kittle will have his big games here and there. That leaves Brandon Aiyuk as the clear third option. However, Aiyuk went ballistic at the end of his rookie season when Kittle and Samuel both dealt with injuries. From Weeks 8-14, Aiyuk averaged 12.4 targets, 7.8 receptions, 90.6 yards, and had four total touchdowns. He was the WR3 in points per game over that stretch behind only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. Kittle was knocked out of Week 8’s game and didn’t play again during Aiyuk’s hot streak. Deebo Samuel played in two of those five games but was dealing with injuries of his own.

Here are Aiyuk’s per-game splits from Weeks 8-14 (while Samuel and Kittle were injured) and all other weeks:

Aiyuk was able to take advantage of injuries to his teammates by nearly tripling his production across the board. But as we all saw in 2021, when the entire team is healthy, Aiyuk is third in the pecking order. Those that paid a premium in fantasy drafts for Aiyuk were left with an awful taste in their mouth last year. While Aiyuk saw a slight bump in year-over-year production, he never came close to his end-of-year stretch as a rookie.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's red-hot finish was fanned by teammate injuries

Now it’s time to talk about Amon-Ra St. Brown. At the end of the year, he averaged a ludicrous 11.2 targets, 8.5 receptions and 93.3 yards per game while scoring six touchdowns in as many games. That production was nearly identical to Aiyuk’s end-of-year finish in 2020. And wouldn’t you know it? Hockenson was knocked out of Week 14’s game and didn't play again. Swift only played in two of those games and was limited in both outings with a shoulder injury.

Like Aiyuk’s splits, let’s look at how St. Brown did in Weeks 13-18 (when Swift and Hockenson were hurt) and other weeks:

The similarities between Aiyuk and St. Brown’s production splits and team situation are uncanny. When looking at the relating injuries, it gets even weirder. Hockenson and Kittle both play tight end and Samuel and Swift each play a hybrid role as a back and a receiver. And just like Aiyuk was one of the more polarizing players in the 2021 offseason, St. Brown’s value is all over the board in 2022.

Both St. Brown and Aiyuk stepped up when their teams needed them most, but it’s tough to project that production forward into next season. When Swift and Hockenson were both healthy and active, St. Brown was The WR62 in PPR scoring. In games where one of them was inactive, his usage exploded, and he was the WR3 over those games. The most telling factor in his usage shift was his target share which jumped from 14.5% to 31.9%. To put that into perspective, Cooper Kupp led the league in target share last year with 31.7%, less than St. Brown averaged at the end of the season. So unless you think St. Brown will draw targets at a similar clip to Kupp, he’s assured to regress.

Predicting Detroit's offseason moves

Now that regression when Swift and Hockenson come back healthy next year is apparent, let’s do our best to speculate on the Lions' offseason moves. The Lions just re-signed Josh Reynolds to a deal that is reportedly around 2-year/$12M. That’s WR3 money. Outside of that, Quintez Cephus, Trinity Benson, and Javon McKinley are the only other wide receivers under contract in 2022, and some probably won’t make the final roster. The Lions currently have over $26.5M in cap space, the 11th-most in the league. In addition to the excess cap they can use in free agency, Detroit also has three picks inside the top-34 of this year’s draft. Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, D.J. Chark, and Juju Smith-Schuster are just some of the veterans expected to hit free agency. With the 32nd and 34th picks in this year’s drafts, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, and George Pickens could all be available. This team is all-but-guaranteed to add a receiver this offseason that will cut into St. Brown’s workload.

Last year, I was able to see the writing on the wall with Brandon Aiyuk.

I love Brandon Aiyuk but my gut is telling me that with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel both healthy he’s not going to live up to his ADP next year.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) January 29, 2021

Perhaps fading St. Brown this year is an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle again for the second straight offseason. But when you look at the parallels between to these two players, the similarities are too obvious to ignore.

Overall, I’m out on Amon-Ra St. Brown in all formats at his current value. Underdog has him as WR23 in best ball, and KeepTradeCut has him as the dynasty WR26. KeepTradeCut crowd-sources their rankings from users to give a pretty accurate depiction of current market value. He’s ranked ahead of Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Marquise Brown, Chase Claypool, Chris Olave, and Courtland Sutton. I would take all of them over Amon-Ra without thinking twice. Amon-Ra St. Brown may be the rare fourth-round outlier. But given what we just learned from Brandon Aiyuk and looking ahead at the Lions' potential offseason moves, I’d recommend flipping your St. Brown shares before free agency opens up next week and his value takes a big hit.

Follow @DaveKluge