Rookie Rankings, Kicker: Post-Draft Adjustments

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Rookies rankings are pretty easy before the draft. They are based on perceived ability. Of course, that's all there is to go on until players get NFL jobs.

After the draft, there are two more data points:

1. Draft Capital
2. Opportunity

Let's dig a little into each of those.

Draft Capital

Simply put, draft capital is how big of an investment a team has in a player. The earlier a player is taken in the draft, the greater the team's investment is. Not only does a Round 1 pick receive a bigger contract than a Round 6 player, but the earlier pick also gets more reps in practice. They get more chances to improve. They get more attention from coaches, veterans, and everyone in and around the organization. Because of this, these players have a greater chance of success.

Opportunity

While one could mix opportunity with draft capital, this reference is more about how easy it will be for a rookie to get on the field. For example, Jordan Love and Mac Jones had similar draft capital when they entered the league. But each player's opportunity was very different. Love had to get past Aaron Rodgers, which barring injury was pretty much impossible. Jones, on the other hand, was competing against Cam Newton. This was a much smaller hurdle to clear.

Post-Draft Adjustments, Rookie Kickers

Let's take a look at what draft capital and opportunity mean for rookie kickers.

Draft Capital, Kickers

Rookie kickers are seldom drafted. When they are, they generally need to fall flat to not win the job in Week 1. This year's draft saw the Browns select Cade York in the fourth round. And that's the list of drafted kickers.

It's far more common for a rookie kicker to be signed as an undrafted free agent (UDFA). So far, seven rookie kickers have signed (or been invited to rookie try-outs) by a team.

Draft capital is the most important factor in assessing rookie kickers. In general, if a team thought they were worth a draft pick, that kicker has a good shot to win a job. And without question, if a kicker isn't on a team, they have no chance to win a job.

Opportunity, Kickers

UDFA kickers have a wide range in opportunity. This year, Jonathan Garibay signed with the Cowboys. Last year, Dallas had Greg Zuerlein kicking. This past offseason, Zuerlein signed with the Jets, so Dallas brought in Chris Naggar, who has a single attempt in his career (a 37-yard make for Cleveland). While another leg could be brought in, Naggar is not much competition for Garibay. A solid camp could see the rookie win the job.

On the other end of the spectrum, Cameron Dicker has signed with the Rams. He'll need to beat out Matt Gay, who has a career 85.9% field goal accuracy rate and kicked at a 94.1% rate in 2021. Barring Gay being a cap casualty, Dicker has almost no chance to win this job.

After draft capital, opportunity has the most influence on rookie kicker rankings. A team's roster composition can give us the best look at who they plan to keep on their 53-man roster. A path with fewer obstacles is much preferred.

Post-Draft Rookie Kicker Rankings

Here's a look at 17 rookie kickers. Their post-draft rankings are based on three things:

1. Pre-draft ranking
2. Draft capital
3. Opportunity