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The Spotlight Series

A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.

2 is the Magic Number

Some players invite debate. For example, our staff can’t agree on Cole Kmet’s value – his ranking ranges from TE9 to TE25. On the other hand, Mark Andrews is almost universally regarded as the No. 2 tight end this year behind Travis Kelce.

Footballguys Staff Rankings Distribution

• 10 of 15 rank Andrews TE2
• 4 of 15 rank him TE1
• 1 ranks him TE3

When the pessimists see a player as the No. 3 at the position, there’s not much drama.

Yet, Andrews has never finished as the No. 2 Tight End

TABLE: Andrews Stats and Fantasy Ranking (2019-2021)

He’s finished TE5, TE7, and TE1 in three years as a full-time starter.

Why doesn’t anyone rank Andrews lower than TE3 when he’s finished lower than that in two of three seasons?

Andrews' range of outcomes hinges almost exclusively on how many targets he gets..

• 2019 -- 98 Targets (5th among NFL tight ends)
• 2020 -- 89 Targets (10th)
• 2021 -- 154 Targets (1st)

Wasn’t last year the outlier for targets?

Yes, Andrews was targeted fewer than 100 times in 2019 and 2020, but he vaulted to 154 targets last year. The Ravens went from 32^nd in passing attempts in 2019 and 2020, to 9^th last year. Last season was not a blueprint for success, as the Ravens finished with an 8-9 record and in last place in the AFC North. Head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman are going to bring the run/pass ratio back into balance.

While 154 targets are unlikely again, expecting more than 100 targets isn’t

• Lamar Jackson has improved as a passer. There’s a difference between re-establishing the run game and rolling things to where they were in 2019
• Marquise Brown (315 targets over the last three seasons) was traded to Arizona
• Another 120 targets from last season were vacated by personnel departures
• Andrews’ target share has never been below 21.9%

We currently project the Ravens to throw the ball 516 times, which is approximately the midpoint of the Ravens' last two seasons.

TABLE: Ravens QB Projections, Consensus