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As a rule, changing teams is not great for the fantasy production of wide receivers. However, wide receivers who change teams and see an improvement in quarterback play can benefit from a change. Likewise, some wide receivers who remained on the same team could benefit from improved situations after a wild month of transactions. Below are wide receivers who saw an improvement or downgrade from March’s fallout.
Improvement
Allen Robinson makes the list because things just cannot get worse than they were in 2021. Robinson signing with the Rams and playing with Matthew Stafford is by far the best quarterback of Robinson’s career. The Rams gave a perception bump to Odell Beckham last year, and Robinson could similarly benefit from a changing landscape. Outside of Cooper Kupp, there is a lot of room for Robinson to carve out a role. In the WR4 range of startup drafts, Robinson is all upside.
Mike Evans gets Tom Brady back. All Evans has done in his career is post 1000+ yard receiving seasons and top 24 seasonal finishes. Brady’s return makes it likely Evans does this again if healthy.
The return of Mike Williams to the Chargers has not stopped mock drafts projecting the Chargers to take a wide receiver in the first round of the draft. Williams is not a WR1 in the Chargers offense, but his attachment to Justin Herbert makes him a WR2-3 range projection after a WR14 finish in 2022.
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JuJu Smith-Schuster went from a crowded receiving room with Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback to an empty wide receiver room with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. It is tough to find a better improvement in a situation than that move. Is he a true WR1? That is up for debate, but Smith-Schuster probably will not need to be with Travis Kelce on the outside. The contract is only a one-year deal, but Smith-Schuster is a candidate for a top 12 finish, at the cost of WR32 over the past two weeks in startup drafts.
Courtland Sutton gets a big quarterback upgrade with the Denver Broncos trading for Russell Wilson. Sutton is the deep threat that was let down by the poor quarterback play in 2021. Of wide receivers with at least 50 targets in 2021, Sutton ranked second in aDOT (15.8) but realized the sixth-lowest percentage of his air yards (52%). The addition of Wilson, an all-timer in the deep passing game, could provide a big turnaround for Sutton’s efficiency.
Downgrade
Dallas could not run fast enough from Amari Cooper’s 20-million-dollar contract, only to see an inferior Christian Kirk sign for four years and 84 million dollars. In a world where Cristian Kirk is a 21-million-dollar receiver, Cooper seems like a massive bargain. That said, Cleveland is a lower volume passing attack than Dallas. This may change with Deshaun Watson at quarterback in Cleveland, but a Waston suspension is still possible. Cooper has been at WR24 in real drafts over the past two weeks so he still carries plenty of value to pivot away from. For example, Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins are both going later, with more targets and fantasy upside in 2022.
Tyreek Hill’s departure came as a complete surprise. Hill has dropped in yards per route run the last four seasons and saw the lowest aDOT (11) he has posted in the Mahomes-era. In fact, Hill’s highest aDOT, 15.5, was with Alex Smith at quarterback. Hill is still a dynamic receiver, and the Smith stat is a reminder we can have a hard time predicting the impact quarterbacks have on a wide receiver. If Hill’s cost falls out of the top 12 wide receiver costs, the reward far outweighs the risk.
The Davante Adams trade, like the Hill trade, came as a surprise. The connection between Aaron Rodgers and Adams was pure magic from a real and fantasy football perspective. That, combined with a limited supporting cast, made Adams a volume monster in Green Bay with 30% target shares the past two seasons. The move to Las Vegas is a downgrade because Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow will see a larger target volume than anyone in Green Bay has in prior years. Likewise, Derek Carr is a downgrade at the quarterback position. All that said, if you take 20% off of Adams’s targets in 2021, he still had 132, good for WR16. Likewise, if you take 20% off his 2021 fantasy points, he would have finished as WR9. When you have such a high level of performance, a big reduction in his production can still produce difference-making stats.
Tyler Lockett and Russell Wilson had a great relationship in Seattle. Lockett had a perfect passing rating when targeted by Russell Wilson in 2018. By way of comparison, Lockett had a better passer rating on his targets than Davante Adams in three of the past four seasons. Wilson's departure leaves a big hole at quarterback for Lockett who has consistently produced above his cost. My hope is a post-June 1 trade to Green Bay where Lockett will fill the void left by Adams's departure.
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