Evaluating Rookies for IDP Leagues

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The IDP Roundtable Series

This summer, the Footballguys staff will discuss various topics to help you in your IDP leagues.

When evaluating rookies, do you place more value on talent, college production, or the scheme/situation he will be going into? Is your evaluation the same for redraft and for dynasty?

John Norton

Let me start by saying I’m married and want to stay that way. This is important to my answer because it directly affects how I approach rookies. If I were to watch college football with the same intensity I do with the NFL, I would be single again in short order. Since I don’t get to watch much football on Saturdays, my evaluation of rookies begins in earnest shortly before the draft. At that point, I cram like a college freshman the night before exams, until I feel comfortable that I’m caught up.

It’s easy when all three aspects align. Unfortunately, that is a fairly rare event. Being familiar with team needs, scheme concepts, and IDP scoring trends for each team is probably my biggest asset. Once I get up to speed on a player’s skill set, I have confidence in my ability to project how he will fit with his team. Thus I always start by targeting players drafted into the best/most productive situations. In my 30 years of IDP experience, I’ve seen a lot more situations where great circumstance has made quality starters out of average players, than great players overcoming bad situations to be quality IDP starters.

College production is an important factor as well, though it is not always the best measuring stick. If a player has weak numbers in college, there has to be a good reason for it or something else to make me believe in him. Like most in the scouting community, I will give more weight to a player that put up impressive numbers against top-level competition but there are always those hidden gems that I find by taking a closer look at someone that put up great numbers in a lesser conference.

Talent is something that factors much more heavily in dynasty formats. For redraft managers, it doesn’t matter how talented a player is if his lack of experience keeps him off the field or limits him to a part-time role. It feels like we are increasingly seeing that happen. Logan Wilson, Isaiah Simmons, Jamin Davis, Zaven Collins, Grant Delpit, Nick Bolton, and Jordyn Brooks are all good examples of talented rookie prospects that didn’t play enough to be IDP factors in year one, but exploded or are likely to in their second seasons. The cream will rise to the top if you have time to wait for it.

Joseph Haggan

When it comes to redraft, the first thing I look at is the incoming situation. If I am drafting a rookie in a redraft league, I want to find the linebacker who is landing in the best spot for potential volume. After that, I look at college production, as it is usually a decent indicator that will roll over, especially if landing in a volume role.

In Dynasty it is thoroughly different. Landing spot is still probably the first thing I look at, like I said volume is key. After that, though, I go to the tape. In college, some prospects' inefficiencies are covered up by pure athleticism. The talent in college is lower than in the NFL and you can win with pure athleticism. That does not work in the NFL. When I watch film, I want to see those guys with elite athleticism, matched with high-level technical abilities and skill-sets. For example, Zaven Collins and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Both landed in slightly crowded situations, though I still have them ranked high in dynasty. They showed elite athleticism in college though they matched it with tools that show talent at every phase of the game. College production can be misleading, search for the athleticism that is matched with technical tools.

Christian Williams

The cop-out answer would be all of those situations, but I place more value on talent than anything else. Rookie evaluation on the defensive side of the ball is strange and sometimes difficult because there can be a variety of factors that contribute to a lack of or an abundance of production. Odafe Oweh is a prime example of a player with incredible tools sitting in a scheme that failed to take advantage of them; he then went on to tie his college-best sack mark as a rookie. Volume plays certainly work for the linebacker position, but talent is the main contributor to whether a player sees the field in most cases. Regarding redraft vs. dynasty, evaluating the player is different. There are different levels of NFL readiness, and often my evaluation of a player for dynasty will stress on ceiling while acknowledging that the ceiling isn't attainable in Year 1. That's where the differences in my redraft vs. dynasty rankings would come into play.

Jeff Haseley

For both redraft and dynasty, I am first and foremost interested in the opportunity or volume of expected snaps/usage. While talent is important, we've seen players with less talent make a living as IDP mainstays. Denzel Perryman is the most recent example. He is not close to the best linebacker in the league talent-wise, but he manages to get on the field and make tackles, and ultimately, that's what we want from our IDP linebackers. Some teams are better for LB IDP production but it varies year to year with factors such as coaching style, tackle opportunities, average plays allowed, etc. Generally, I target certain or fade teams for LB production. Philadelphia and New Orleans are historically a bad situation for linebacker production. On the flip side, Seattle is usually good, as are Chicago, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Carolina to name a few.

Tripp Brebner

To paraphrase OG Sigmund Bloom, talent, situation, and opportunity comprise the tripod of fantasy value. Each leg carries different weight by position. I buy into the analytics of draft capital as both an indicator of talent and a predictor of opportunity. The hate for Travon Walker in the fantasy space has gone too far. The overall No. 1 pick belongs firmly ahead of Jermaine Johnson and George Karlaftis, players with inferior traits and draft capital, in dynasty. Karlaftis closes the gap on Walker as a late upside pick in seasonal leagues because the Chief is in the best situation of any Round-1 edge defender.

Matt Montgomery

When evaluating rookies, I generally look into the talent they have. It is hard to look into college production and determine that this transitions to the NFL. Talent gets you in the league more than production in college, and talent ultimately determines your viability once in the league. Don’t undersell scheme or fit though. I believe scheme and fit factors more in redraft than talent, but in Dynasty, I take talent potential over all other measurable criteria.

Kyle Bellefeuil

When it comes to evaluating IDP rookies for redraft, I'd say talent, scheme, and opportunity are the factors I look to the most. We are building our teams for the immediate and need these rookies on the field to be productive for our squads. They also must be talented enough to not only beat out their competition but keep their role and progress. As for scheme, I want to see an attainable role that is conducive to IDP production.

For dynasty, all those same factors matter, but I definitely put an emphasis on talent. Production is always nice, but it can be misleading in some cases as it may not tell the full story. Draft capital also comes into play as it's important to know what the team invested in a said player. In dynasty, I'll preach patience more often than not as I'm generally conservative with most rookies as far as playing time is concerned. I have no problem drafting players I feel are more talented over others in perceived better situations. We are playing the long game and I want talented players who will be around for the long haul.

Gary Davenport

For my money, evaluating rookies is all about talent and situation. Sure, production and scheme matter, but both come with major caveats. With production, the level of competition can have an impact, and even guys who rack up stats at a big-time school are about to experience a massive leap in difficulty level. With scheme, just because an edge-rusher hasn't played standing up doesn't mean he can't.

But talent is talent. And players who land in situations with a clear path to start have a better chance of producing early. So far as redraft vs. dynasty, I don't differentiate much—so much changes from year to year that looking too far ahead can be asking for trouble.

Evan Ronda

For me, college production and talent go hand-in-hand. Talented players tend to produce more. It’s not a perfect overlap, but it is definitely correlated.

That being said, fantasy football is an opportunity-driven game. Assets with the opportunity to produce will tend to score more points than assets with less opportunity. This is why schemes and situations are so important. Finding players who will see significant playing time should be every manager’s first priority.

Ultimately, the decision to give players snaps belongs to the coaching staff, and they will give an opportunity to whoever they believe is best for the job. ‘Talented’ players can still sit the bench if their coach decides they aren’t ready, and players with less skill can still produce for IDP if they get playing time. In ambiguous situations, betting on the more talented player should pay off in the long run, though.

Aaron Rudnicki

Situation is always important for fantasy value and has to be weighted heavily as a result. That being said, talent sometimes does win out and there is always a risk that a less talented player won’t be able to take advantage of a great opportunity and find himself replaced at some point. Therefore, a balance is clearly needed.

While I don’t play in many redraft IDP leagues, it’s clear that focusing heavily on the situation would be crucial there. You don’t have time (or roster space most likely) to wait for a rookie to emerge and need players who will likely make a contribution quite early.

Dynasty leagues are clearly a different matter. I think you need to try and look for the best matches of talent and opportunity. For example, you want to look for rookies that have a clear path to a starting job but also try to ensure they were drafted early enough that they will get a legitimate opportunity. Draft position is often an indicator of talent/potential but also indicates how much a team is investing in that player. You also probably need to be concerned about where a player will fit as you don’t want to take an edge rusher early that winds up getting slotted as a fantasy linebacker in a 3-4 unless your league is heavily weighted towards big plays.