The Guru and the Godfather: Week 16

Photo: Imagn Images

John "The Guru" Norton and Gary "The Godfather of IDP" Davenport are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2022 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

Week 16 means the semifinals in many IDP leagues, and that means for the teams still alive, just one victory stands between them and a shot at the title. As the pressure and stakes ramp up in equal measure, the Guru and the Godfather have come together to talk about some gnarly winter weather, playoff IDP strategy, and the players who will be giving the gift of victory or stealing Christmas in Week 16.

There are a number of games this week expected to be impacted by the winter storm hitting the Midwest this weekend. How weight do you give to weather conditions and their impact on IDP value, and are there any games/players you believe are of special interest to fantasy managers?

Guru: Weather doesn’t have a major effect on defensive players. It can have a huge effect on offensive players, though, and that can have a major effect on IDPs. You don’t want to start a corner when the weather is going to be 33 degrees with freezing rain and a 35-mile-per-hour wind because the receivers are not going to catch many passes. Remember the game between Buffalo and New England last year where the Patriots threw the ball five times (and won)? On the other hand, if you have a linebacker in one of those games, he is likely to have a busy day.

I could spend hours checking weather reports and talking about each situation. We all know how accurate weather reports can be, so by Sunday, everything I write could be irrelevant. When it gets close to game time, check the weather for each stadium you have a player going in, then adjust your lineup according to how that weather is likely to change the offense and the matchup.

Godfather: I tend to agree with the esteemed Mr. Norton that the weather's impact on IDPs is more due to how said weather impacts the offense than the weather itself. We live in an era where game flow is dictated by the offense much more often than not. And that's the thing—if the weather is really terrible, it can stifle the offense so much that even the IDPs suffer. Take that matchup between the Patriots and the Bills a year ago. In that game, there was one player who logged six solos on both teams combined. No linebacker had five. If both teams are running the ball and keeping the clock moving, it's going to shorten the game—and cut down on total tackle opportunities. If both offenses struggle, it just gets worse.

With that said, as things stand now, it looks like there will be two games with really nasty weather in Week 16—Saints at Browns and Bills at Bears. Both games are forecasted to have high winds, brutal temperatures, and snow. If it's as bad as predicted, the passing games could be non-existent, and the tackle opportunity numbers could make even linebackers that appear to be strong plays dicey bets in a week where one dud can be all it takes to sink the season.

2. In single-elimination playoff scenarios, do you give added weight to matchups when making lineup decisions relative to the regular season? Are there scenarios where you would consider sitting a weekly starter for a matchup play?

Guru: At this juncture, I am focused on winning one game. So I put added emphasis on matchups. My lineup options consist of everyone on my roster and everyone that is not on someone else's roster. A vast majority of the time, the guys on my roster are better than anyone on the waiver wire. I generally believe in sticking with the date that got me to the dance. That said, I will not be stubborn about it. There could be situations, such as weather or extreme matchups, that would force my hand.

I think the biggest part of these decisions comes down to analyzing and understanding your situation. If you are a clear favorite, play that every-week starter with a high floor, even if his ceiling is limited that week. The worst thing to do is gamble on the upside when you don’t necessarily need it and end up with nothing. That’s how favorites get beat. If you are an underdog, that linebacker you can count on for five tackles and two assists but not much more that week is probably going to leave you with a participation ribbon.

Godfather: The Guru's advice here is spot-on—in more than one respect. Every week of the playoffs is a season all its own. You have to focus on the here and now. Get caught looking ahead, and you won't have to worry about moving on. He's also absolutely right about the state of your matchup dictating strategy to an extent. There's no more reason for favorites to be overly aggressive than it is for underdogs to play it safe. Frankly, the latter can be rather liberating—it's fun to throw caution to the wind in a matchup you aren't supposed to have a chance in anyway.

Since most playoff teams are neither prohibitive favorites nor massive underdogs, there's a balance that needs to be struck. You aren't sitting the top linebacker on your team, but if your second or third starter has a terrible matchup and has been in a funk in recent weeks, then it may be time to consider going to the bullpen.

Apologies for the baseball reference.