Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 5: Denver Broncos

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If we look at Denver’s defense through the eyes of a manager in a team defense league, they had a rather mediocre season in 2021. The Broncos’ 36 sacks and 13 interceptions were middle-of-the-pack, and their six forced fumbles were the fewest in the league. Changing perspective to an NFL view, this was a pretty strong unit. They were a little light on big plays but allowed the fifth-fewest completions, the fourth-lowest completion percentage, the fifth-fewest touchdown passes, the fewest touchdown runs, ranked ninth in yards allowed per pass attempt, and only two teams gave up fewer points.

New faces will be sprinkled in at every level, but most amount to lateral moves that may not have a major statistical impact.

Defensive Linemen

Denver runs a 3-4 base defense, so they normally count on their outside linebackers for most of the pass rush pressure. With Bradley Chubb injured and Von Miller traded mid-season, defensive ends Shelby Harris and Dre’Mont Jones were at the top of the sack list in 2021. Harris led the team with six while Jones was behind him with five and a half.

Harris will be wearing a Seahawks uniform this year so the Broncos are looking for free-agent addition D.J. Jones to fill the void. The run defense will not suffer from Jones in the lineup, but it remains to be seen if he can step up the heat as a pass rusher. This will be his first time in a 3-4 after playing mostly as the 3-technique tackle in San Francisco’s 4-3 over the last five seasons. Jones was the third man in the rotation in 2019 and 2020 before moving into the starting lineup last year. With 40 tackles, 14 assists, two sacks, and a pair of forced fumbles, he emerged as a valuable asset for both the 49ers and IDP managers in leagues breaking out the defensive line positions. As a 3-4 end, his fantasy value takes a major hit.

DreMont Jones had a breakout season of sorts in 2020 when the 2019 third-round pick replaced an injured Jurrell Casey and went on to total 26-15-6.5 with a pair of batted passes in 13 starts. Jones was bothered by a calf injury and started slowly last year, totaling six tackles and five assists over the first seven games. He followed that with a string of six games in which he combined for 16 tackles, 5.5 sacks, knocked down a pass, and a forced fumble. In the two games leading up to his foot injury, Jones was 6-1-3 and was becoming a factor.

With the law firm of Jones and Jones at defensive end and space-eating road grader Mike Purcell at nose tackle, the foundation of Denver’s defense is rock solid. In fantasy terms, however, this unit seemingly has little to offer. Harris put up the best numbers of the group by far in 2021, but at 24-25-6, he amounted to little more than bye week depth. No other Bronco lineman reached 20 solo tackles or averaged more than six fantasy points per game. That said, both D.J. and Dre’Mont Jones are worth keeping an eye on.

The Broncos have a good balance of veteran contributors and youth with upside behind their starters. With Stephen Weatherly gone, 2020 third-round pick, McTelvin Agim, figures to have an expanded role as the third man at defensive end. He managed a sack and a half on just 90 snaps last year. After being out of the league for a few years, DeShawn Williams has been a big part of the rotation over the past two seasons. Last year’s seventh-round pick, Marquiss Spencer, and this year’s rookies Eyioma Uwazurike (round four) and Matt Hemming (round six), are developmental players with the potential to become major contributors down the road.

• DE DreMont Jones – Watch list player with DL2 ceiling
• DE D.J. Jones – Potential depth
• DE McTelvin Agim – Injury sleeper with limited potential
• DE Marquiss Spencer – No impact
• DE Matt Henningsen – Developmental rookie
• DT/DE DeShawn Williams – No impact expected
• NT Mike Purcell – Possible depth in leagues starting two tackles
• NT Eyioma Uwazurike – Should see a few snaps in relief

Linebackers

The last twelve months have been a turbulent ride for Denver’s linebackers. As a result, there will be different names and numbers on many of the jerseys at the second level in 2022, but in the end, it will be business as usual for this group.

Von Miller will not be there for the first time in a decade. How exactly he will be replaced, remains a work in progress. There are several possible options available, starting with Malik Reed. Reed got his first opportunity when Miller missed the 2020 season. He made a strong impression, playing well versus the run and finishing with eight sacks. The audition continued when Bradley Chubb missed the first eleven games last year. Reed continued to play well with five sacks over the first nine games, but he vanished after that. Reed continued to start once Chubb returned, replacing Miller after he was traded. Reed missed two games in December due to COVID but failed to record a sack in any of the five he started after week ten. He is a good option for the coaching staff to consider and should at the very least, be part of the edge rotation.

Another strong option will be free-agent addition, Randy Gregory. Despite playing with his hand down as a 4-3 end for his entire NFL career, Gregory looks to be a great fit from a physical perspective. At 6’5” and 242 pounds, he has the length, speed, and burst to be successful in a stand-up role. What remains to be seen is if Gregory can handle the additional responsibilities of the new position, such as dropping into coverage now and then. He is a talented player with great potential but Gregory has never put up great numbers. His best season in Dallas was 2018 when the totaled 20-6-6.

The other contestants are Baron Browning, who finished last year as a starting inside backer but has moved outside, and second-round pick Nik Bonitto. Browning’s story is somewhat of a head-scratcher. He played both inside and outside during his time at Ohio State, recording a total of seven sacks over his final three seasons there. Browning had a good chance of starting had he remained on the inside this year but reportedly requested the position change, saying he was more comfortable outside.

Browning faces an uphill battle to earn playing time on the outside, but Nik Bonitto may not. Bonitto will have to prove himself as a run defender to land a three-down role but his pass-rush ability is not in question. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein described Bonitto by writing “He's a wildly athletic rusher who blends get-off, stride length and flexibility into one alarming package for tackles trying to slow him down. Rush counters come instinctively”. College statistics back up Zierlein’s statement as Bonitto totaled 19.5 sacks in his three years as a starter for Oklahoma.

Providing Bradley Chubb remains healthy, all those players will be competing for one job. On the other hand, staying healthy has been a problem for Chubb who has missed significant time in two of the last three seasons. He played four games in 2019 before finishing the year on IR. Chubb was officially available for nine games last year but did not play his normal complement of snaps in any of them after returning from an ankle injury.

Chubb is a stud with the potential to reach double-digit sacks and there are talented players competing for the other job, that will complement him well. It would not be a surprise to see both of Denver’s outside linebacker positions produce a dozen sacks this year and boost the team’s number of forced fumbles along the way. For IDP managers in big-play-based leagues, this could be a great place to mine value. For those in balanced or tackle heave leagues, these players have the same shortfall common to other 3-4 outside backers, a glaring lack of tackle production.

Injuries decimated the Broncos at inside linebacker in 2021. As a result, seven players saw action at the positions over the course of the season, creating a black hole for IDP managers to avoid. It has been a while since Denver gave us a great fantasy target here but we normally get at least some value from the team’s inside backers. That should be the case again this year.

Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton project to be the starters here, but that is not written in stone as Jonas Griffith has been working ahead of Singleton during offseason activities. Jewell is a dependable veteran who excels versus the run. He has limitations in coverage and is not a playmaker, but rarely makes mental mistakes. He took over the starting job at the start of 2020 and despite shortcomings in coverage, stayed on the field in most sub-packages, totaling a modest 68-41-2 with 4 pass breakups. If Jewell continues in the every-down role, 70 tackles, 45 assists, and 2 or 3 splash plays are about what we can reasonably expect, making him a decent LB4 or good LB5 without much upside.

Providing Singleton wins the other starting job, which I believe he ultimately will, he should be the better fantasy option. He averaged more than 12 points per game as a starter for the Eagles over the last two seasons. Most of that came from strong tackle totals, but Singleton managed to contribute five turnovers, two sacks, and a pair of scores across 22 starts for Philadelphia. He is a physical tackler with good range, has decent speed, and is solid in coverage. Opportunity will be less abundant for Singleton in Denver than it was in Philadelphia, but he should make a decent LB3 or quality depth for us.

Griffith may be working with the first team simply because he is more familiar with the scheme at this stage. On the other hand, he put up impressive numbers in the four games he started late last year, totaling 40 combined tackles in December. That’s not bad for an undrafted rookie and makes this a position battle worth keeping an eye on over the summer. Who knows, we might even see Griffith and Singleton start come week one.

• ILB Alex Singleton – Decent LB3 or solid LB4 with a little upside if he wins a starting job
• ILB Josey Jewell – Marginal value with LB4 ceiling
• ILB Jonas Griffith – Sleeper to keep an eye on through the preseason
• ILB Justin Strnad – No impact
• OLB/ILB Baron Browning – No impact expected
• OLB Randy Gregory – Marginal fantasy value
• OLB Bradley Chubb – LB2 in big-play scoring if he stays healthy
• OLB Malik Reed – Potential depth in big-play leagues
• OLB Nik Bonitto – Pass rush specialist in the short term with a high ceiling in the long term

Defensive Backs

Justin Simmons is among the league’s most underrated safeties. There is no weakness to his game. He is smart, physical, can run with most receivers, and has a knack for making game-changing plays. At 28 years old, he is in his prime and is signed through 2025.

When a defense struggles versus the run, it usually leads to good production from the safety positions. This rang true with Denver when Simmons not only led the team in solo tackles with a career-best 78 but also had the sixth-highest total in the league among defensive backs in 2020. That and his six takeaways were enough to land Simmons among the top-five defensive backs that year. He repeated the five interceptions last season and even added a pair of sacks to his resume, but a shift back to free safety took a big bite out of his tackle total, dropping him all the way to DB17 in 2021.

Looking at Simmons’s numbers over the last four years, give us a good perspective. We can safely expect tackle numbers around 65 solo and 20 assists with about 5 turnovers and low double-digit passes defended. He may never make the Top 5 again, but is a safe target as a quality DB2.

Simmons’ running mate at strong safety is at a different place in his career. Kareem Jackson has been a dependable NFL starter since coming to the team as a free agent in 2019, but he is 34 years old and is working on a one-year contract extension. Jackson’s best fantasy production came in his last season with Houston (2017) when he was the number-12 defensive back. He has not found the top-20 since joining Denver but Jackson’s 67-23-0 with 3 turnovers, was enough to make him a good DB4 in 2020. His numbers slipped a bit further last year when Jackson’s average of 8.4 points per game fell outside the top 50. He might call it a career after this season, or at the least will probably be done in Denver. While he is still capable of helping his team, Jackson is not likely to do much for yours in 2022.

The Broncos began preparing for Jackson’s departure by selecting a pair of safeties in the 2021 draft. Both Caden Sterns and Jamar Johnson were selected in the fifth round. Sterns is considered more of an in-the-box strong safety due to his size, aggressive style of play, and somewhat inconsistent coverage. He served as the third safety in his rookie campaign, filling in admirably when Jackson missed some time and finishing the year with 28 combined tackles, 2 interceptions, a pair of sacks, and 5 pass breakups on 321 plays. Even if Jackson remains healthy, we could see Stearns work his way into the starting role at some point this year.

Johnson was originally seen as having the versatility, skillset, and instincts to contribute right away, but he logged no defensive snaps as a rookie, causing some to ponder the possibility that he may not be everything the team had hoped for. Pouring gas on the fire of doubt, the organization went back to the draft again this spring, adding free safety Delarrin Turner-Yell in round five.

Even though the pass defense was respectable in 2020, the organization made a concerted effort to upgrade the corner positions last year. Not everything they did worked out, as veteran free agent Kyle Fuller had an up-and-down year, but the signing of Ronald Darby and selection of Patrick Surtain early in the first round paid off big.

With Fuller gone, 2020 third-round pick Michael Ojemudia could return to a major role. He missed much of last season with a hamstring following a solid if unspectacular rookie season. Veterans K’Wuan Williams, Bless Austin, and fourth-round pick Damarri Mathis will also be in the hunt for playing time this year. The pecking order for sub-package duties will be determined over the summer.

When it comes to IDP production, there has been none from Denver’s corners in quite some time. Ojmudia managed 56 tackles in 2020 but no other Denver corner has exceeded 50 solos since Chris Harris had 57 in 2016.

• SS Justin Simmons – Quality DB2 with a touch of week-to-week inconsistency
• FS Kareem Jackson – Marginal fantasy value
• FS Delarrin Turner-Yell – No immediate impact expected
• SS Caden Sterns – Heir apparent at strong safety, possible late-season target
• FS Jamar Johnson – No impact
• CB Patrick Surtain – Great young corner but no IDP impact
• CB Ronald Darby – potential depth in corner required leagues
• CB Michael Ojemudia – Marginal impact expected
• CB Damarri Mathis – No impact
• CB KWaun Williams – No impact
• CB Blessuan Austin – No impact

That does it for part five of this year’s pre-season offering. I’ll be back in a day or two with the Chiefs

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