Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 18: Detroit

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It feels like a perpetual statement but the Lions’ defense was again horrible in 2021. The pass defense was tied for last at eight yards per attempt, 24th in passing yards allowed, 21st in completion percentage and two teams gave up more points through the air. The run defense was no better. Detroit tied for 20th in yards per carry, finished 28th in rush yards, and tied for 28th in points allowed on the ground. They were even bad in the big-play columns ranking 24th in takeaways and 30th in sacks.

When the team hired Dan Campbell as head coach and Aaron Glenn as defensive coordinator, the perception was that they would bring some stability and direction to a team that had been all over the place in the last decade or so. Now it sounds like they can’t even figure out what defense to run. At this time last year, we were surprised to learn the defense would change to a 3-4 which was out of character for both Campbell and Glenn. Campbell dropped the bomb at this year’s combine that the Lions will feature more of a 4-3 scheme in 2022. Is anyone confused yet?

In defense of Campbell and the rest of the coaching staff, they were dealt a bad hand initially. A 4-3 was always the goal and the 3-4 was simply a case of them trying to make the best use of what little talent they inherited. This unit still has a long way to go and plenty of holes to fill but after using six of their eight draft picks on defense, including number two overall and a second-rounder on 4-3 defensive ends, at least the path forward is clear.

Defensive Linemen

Between rookies Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal and veterans Romeo Okwara and Charles Harris, the Lions should eventually have a strong rotation at defensive end. I say eventually for two reasons. They have two high-profile rookies at a position that often has a learning curve of a year before players hit their stride, and their most productive veteran, Okwara, is expected to spend the first half of this season on the PUP list as he continues to recover from the Achilles injury that cut his 2021 season short.

Hutchinson will be an immediate starter and has the potential to be an IDP factor as a rookie. He may not have the upside as a pass rusher that we’ve seen in guys like Myles Garret or the Bosa brothers in recent years, but Hutchinson has the look of an outstanding three-down defensive end. He has a combination of skill, physical ability, and character that coaches love. He may not have the burst to beat blockers with speed all the time but Hutchinson attacks pass blockers with a motor that never stops, has great mechanics, and is a rock on the edge versus the run. I particularly like the NFL comparison by Lance Zierlein of NFL.com who likens Hutchinson to one of my all-time favorites, Kyle Vanden Bosh.

With the recent word that Romeo Okwara may not be ready to return until midseason, Charles Harris becomes the obvious choice to start opposite Hutchinson. The 2017 first-round pick spent three extremely disappointing years in what was largely a backup role with the Dolphins. His time there yielded 62 combined tackles and 3.5 sacks over 43 games. Harris managed three sacks in his lone season with Atlanta in 2020 but seemed to finally find a home in Detroit last year.

With 34 tackles, 31 assists, 7.5 sacks, and a pair of forced fumbles, Harris was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise bleak season for the Lions. Those numbers were enough to quietly make him a top-twelve defensive end. Harris will now have a golden opportunity to prove his 2021 season was more than a mirage. The lean years have managers hesitant to believe in Harris, making him available in the late rounds of most drafts. There is certainly some risk but I expect to see similar tackle totals with maybe a little boost in the sack column in 2022.

Even if Okwara returns around Week 7 when he would be eligible to come off the PUP, he is not going to be 100% either mentally or physically and will be eased into action. It would be a surprise if he were to regain the starting job before the 2023 season. This is a player that had 44 combined tackles, 10 sacks, and 4 turnovers when he was healthy in 2020. He is not going to help us much this year, but dynasty managers might want to stash him if possible.

With Okwara on the shelf, second-round pick Josh Paschal should be in line for significant action as the third man at defensive end. His reputation as an excellent run defender could even mean starter snaps outside on early downs and a shift inside in passing situations. There is not much chance that Paschal will ever become an elite pass rusher or a DL1 for us, but there is a fairly good possibility he could be a 50 combined tackles and 7-8 sacks kind of contributor.

In the 2021 draft, Detroit used their second-round pick on pick on Levi Onwuzuriki, and a third on Alim McNeill. Those two youngsters along with veteran Michael Brockers should make up the rotation at tackle. McNeill is a 320-pound roadblock that will anchor the run defense. He can push the pocket with a bull rush but otherwise, is not going to provide much in the way of quarterback pressure and will come off the field in passing situations.

Brockers is a ten-year veteran that has done it all. He can spell McNeill as the one-technique, play the three-technique, or line up at defensive end if/when the team sprinkles in some three-man fronts. He has recorded more than 50 combined tackles every season since 2017 and has reached five sacks twice in the last five years. His upside is somewhat limited but depending on how the roles shake out, Brockers could be a solid DT2 for us this year.

The guy I want to keep an eye on here is Onwuzuriki. Scouting reports before last year’s draft touted him as a Sheldon Richardson type 3-technique tackle and expected him to land in a 4-3 scheme. When the Lions used a second-round pick on him, it made good sense until we learned they would play a 3-4. Now that we know the plan all along was to end up in a 4-3, it all makes sense again.

Onwuzuriki was not flashy in the box scores at Washington, totaling 95 combined tackles and 7 sacks in 34 games, but had some impressive moments that excited NFL scouts. A glance at his rookie numbers will not turn heads but 34 combined tackles and a sack on less than 400 snaps is not bad for an interior lineman. With the Lions looking to get younger and building for the future, Onwuzuriki is an interesting prospect for those of us in tackle-required leagues.

• DE Aidan Hutchinson – Should be the first DL off the board in rookie drafts, DL2 potential this year
• DE Charles Harris – DL2 target that can be picked up cheap in late rounds
• DE Josh Paschal – Consider as a DL3 option with long-term DL2 potential
• DE Romeo Okwara – Not likely to be a factor in 2022 due to the injury
• DE Austin Bryant – No impact
• DT Michael Brockers – Possible DT2 with limited upside
• DT Alim McNeill – No impact
• DT Levi Onwuzurike – Watch list sleeper in leagues starting interior linemen
• DT John Cominsky – No impact
• DT John Penisini – No impact

Linebackers

In two drafts under the current regime, the Lions have used a first, two seconds, and a third on the defensive line, and a pair of thirds on the secondary. Either they are biding their time until they can seriously address the linebacker position or they are counting on a couple of their recent middle-round picks to hit. One thing is for sure, Alex Anzalone is not the long-term answer.

Detroit will go into camp with Anzalone as their starting middle linebacker. If they come out of the preseason that way, we are probably not going to get much fantasy value from their linebacker positions. Whenever I watch Anzalone, I see a guy that consistently shows up late to the party, Sometimes he takes the long road and runs around blockers, sometime he is pushed around by them. Either way, he shows up just in time to look down at the pile way too often. Over the 12 games he started last year, Anzalone averaged about 9.6 points which was right around LB40. Unless something happens to make the light go on, there does not seem to be much upside from there.