Dynasty Startups, Win Now or Later

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Do you go into the draft in a Dynasty startup with a win-now plan, a build-for-the-future plan, or something else? How much adjustment to that strategy will you make during the draft? Is there a point in the draft where it's too late or wrong to adjust?

Jason Wood

I don't understand why anyone would go into a startup draft not expecting to win immediately. Focusing on future returns in a startup is a recipe for disaster because our ability to forecast Year N+2 is less predictive than our views on Year N+1, which, in turn, are less predictive than our views on Year N.

Will Grant

I think you have to go in with a win-now approach or, at the very least, be competitive now and go for it all next year. As Jason points out, predicting performance 2 years down the road is really difficult - simply because there are too many variables with coaching changes, free agency and injuries. Many times, even your 'sure thing' rookie pick turns into someone who has minimal impact on your roster after a couple of years in the league. Take the 2019 rookie draft as an example: Guys like N'Keal Harry, Mecole Hardman and Parris Campbell were highly touted and went in the 1st round of many drafts. Deebo Samuel, Terry McLarin and Hunter Renfrow were taken much later that season, and all are going high in redraft leagues now.

Draft for this season, trade for next season.

Andy Hicks

You have to try and draft and have the best team every year. Building for future years is a fraught task. A look through the first rounds of rookie drafts sees a high percentage of failures. Starting from scratch allows you to take advantage of other players overvaluing youth. Guys like Ezekiel Elliott, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce fall much lower than they should.

Dan Hindery

I always want to come away from the startup draft with as many long-term core pieces and future trade assets as possible. My mindset going into the draft is that I want to put together the youngest team possible that can also at least compete for the playoffs in year one and be a true contender for the title by year two. I will stick to the youth strategy without question the first few rounds but am somewhat open to adjusting along the way if the league is over drafting youth and letting veterans slide. It is also important to keep in mind that you do not have to go all or nothing with one strategy. If you have drafted a relatively young team, that doesn’t mean you can’t grab an older veteran who may only have one or two good years left once you get into the middle rounds.

Craig Lakins

My mindset going into a dynasty startup is that I'd like to hit my stride in Years 2-3 to set the stage for sustained success. Early in the draft, I'm only interested in players ascending in value. Taking a hard stance against veterans isn't necessary, but I'm only taking them in the bottom half of the draft with an eye toward moving them in a trade when I feel their remaining value has peaked. Since I mainly play in superflex leagues, my aim is to lock up an elite quarterback in round 1 and then focus on building my team with rookies and high-value young assets.

It's not often that I'll deviate from that strategy, but if I find that many of my league mates are trying the same thing, there will be way too many elite players falling down the draft board. At that point, it's easy to pivot to a complete win-now strategy by picking up the aging RBs and veteran wideouts that otherwise would have been avoided.

Gary Davenport

I tend to lean more toward win-now—or at least I don't look too far ahead. The reality is that given how much changes in the NFL from season to season, planning four years down the road is something of an exercise in futility. This isn't to say the future isn't a consideration—especially at, say quarterback, where it's easier to reasonably predict a player's long-term prospects. But I'm not going to sacrifice 2022 in an effort to win in 2024. Live in the now.

Christian Williams

Dynasty roster construction makes the format so appealing, and heading into a draft with a set plan is a surefire way to leave disappointed. Traditionally, I have age guardrails on my early-round picks. These vary per position (and sometimes, per player), as the thresholds are variable. These guardrails allow me to infuse the team with youth but not sacrifice the ability to win now. The strategy becomes fluid, as those guardrails give clear pathways after the first four-to-five rounds. Adjusting the strategy mid-draft is recommended, as capitalizing on value is essential. That can happen later, as well, if value presents itself on the side of either strategy. While most prefer to set the tone of a draft, the actions of league mates can dictate how a roster comes together. But the goal is to construct a roster that can compete every year; whether that happens via skewing younger or capitalizing on older players at value is less important.

Jordan McNamara

I generally try to build a win-now team. I used to aim for a long-term build by sacrificing year one, but the market has changed in year. For example, in years past, it cost a first round pick to move from a rookie wide receiver to a productive wide receiver. Years ago, in startup drafts, a trade of Keenan Allen for Drake London and a first round pick was possible. Now, the trade in startup drafts is London for Allen and a first. These types of trades are a Two-Way Go and creates multiple outs to contend in the near term and in the long term, in a way that was not possible in years past.

Sam Wagman

I tend to decide this immediately after my first pick, and the spot where I draft plus the board plays a big role. I tend to draft best player available in the first round of dynasty startups, so it’s not always cut-and-dry. I will make some adjustments to the strategy during the draft, but I generally find that once you reach the sixth or seventh round that you should have a firm handle on what that strategy is.

Jeff Bell

First, people must understand that a build-for-the-future plan is not mutually exclusive from a win-now plan. Targeting young ascending players will allow you to compete while building a roster that will grow value. Using Footballguys ranks, one could assemble a startup roster like this: Javonte Williams, Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman, Joe Burrow, and Rashod Bateman, giving an anchor running back, a deep wide receiver core, and a young franchise quarterback. Before round eight, I want to build strong quarterback starters and a young wide receiver core that will gain value with no deviation.

Chad Parsons

Today's startup value landscape offers the opportunity for both, which is a change from just a few short years ago. Drafting a win now team used to nearly mandate trading away future rookie picks and sacrificing the future to a strong degree. Now, production is straightforward to acquire in the mid-rounds, and blending a handful of younger options can be enough of a compromise between the approaches to win now and later. One of the bigger mistakes I see during a startup draft is changing an approach mid-draft, the worst being trading a previously drafted player (remorse) to align more with a new team-building approach. Those are typically franchise-changing (not for the better) maneuvers.

Kevin Coleman

For every draft you are in, you need to be fluid in your team-building approach. My plans change based on my draft position and my league mates drafting tendencies. It can ruin your dynasty teams if you go into a draft with a set plan and leave no room for flexibility. My strategy is to go in with a value-based mindset, especially in the early rounds of a draft. Taking the BPA in the early rounds allows you to build a team that can not only win now but also provides a solid foundation for the future.

Ben Cummins

I take a hybrid approach but lean on the younger side. There are three main reasons for this. Younger players can still lead you to a championship, they offer more longevity in dynasty, and their "fantasy football currency" is more valuable than older players. I view younger players not only as player assets but as currency assets as well. Younger players offer you more outs meaning you can either keep them and reap the benefits of their growth or trade them away should your evaluation of the player(s) change. Why? There will usually be at least one manager in a league that remains interested in a younger player, even if their career gets off to a rough start.