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The beginning of the season creates an opportunity for massive value changes in players. During the nine-month offseason, the market’s value on players becomes cemented. Then by mid-October, after five weeks of games, there can be a real panic in the marketplace if a player is not playing well.

Dealing With Missed Expectations

There are a couple of rules of thumb to follow when a player is not living up to expectations.

First, what has this player done in the past?

Players with elite historical profiles are the type of durable profiles that bounce back from stretches of poor play. These players typically make good buy lows, and you must be very careful to discard them.

Common durable profiles include quarterbacks and wide receivers with multiple top-12 seasonal finishes on their resumes and tight ends with top-three seasonal finishes.

On the other hand, buying low on unproven first- or second-year players can be a real trap. Their odds of producing are lower than the market appreciates, and baked into their cost is a youth premium that makes buying low difficult.

Second, why is the expectation not being met?

Good places to buy low include players that are hurt or have low efficiencies. Likewise, quarterbacks that have changed teams or systems are good bets to rebound.

Be careful in making too many excuses for the failure to meet expectations. If you have to take more than a couple of sentences to explain why they are not meeting expectations, be careful betting on a rebound.

Buying Low

Elite players can make a huge difference in your dynasty team. Buying low on elite profiles is a great way to turn your team around for the long term.

The one trend that has been most consistently true in the NFL this century is great quarterbacks stay great.

Russell Wilson has a hall of fame resume. After a decade in Seattle, Wilson was traded to Denver to team up with new head coach Nathaniel Hackett. The transition has not been great. They have the makings of a new boss hiring a new employee, and neither one of them is able to find the light switch in their new office.

Wilson is struggling, and the echo chamber has made this worse with everyone in the NFL getting their shots on Wilson while he is down.

When you are evaluating Wilson, ask yourself what is more likely: Wilson has completely fallen off a cliff at 34 years old, or he is going through a rough patch in his career.

For context, during this five-game stretch, Wilson is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, which is 0.4 yards per attempt below his career average (7.8).

In context, this is the worst performance of his season in yards per attempt since 2017 (7.2), when he posted his career low. Put another way, Wilson’s down year is more than a half-yard per attempt better than Trevor Lawrence’s career best (6.8).

Wilson’s floor is so high that a disappointment is still an above-average performance, despite a lot of noise surrounding the slow start.

This is even more eye-opening when looking at recent Superflex trades.

• Tee Higgins for Russell Wilson and Brian Robinson

When you can trade a non-premium position for a discounted elite profile at a premium position, you should lean strongly in that direction. Trading a wide receiver not named Justin Jefferson for an elite quarterback profile is a massive boost to your roster. Add in Brian Robinson and this is an enormous long-term gain.

• Nick Chubb and Jimmy Garoppolo for Russell Wilson

This is the running back version of the trade above.

• 2023 1st and 2023 2nd for Russell Wilson, 2023 4th, 2023 5th, 2024 5th

The Trevor Lawrence example above demonstrates just how far above any rookie quarterback in the 2023 rookie class Russell Wilson will be.

• Odell Beckham, 2023 2nd and 2023 4th for Russell Wilson

This is laughably cheap.

More examples of good profiles that are buy-low candidates include Matthew Stafford and George Kittle.

Stafford has produced on a level below Wilson’s in his career but is a durable long-term dynasty option. The beginning of the season has not been smooth for Stafford, but his career performance along with Sean McVay as his coach are good long-term bets.

• Kyren Williams, 2023 2nd and 2023 3rd for Matthew Stafford and Taysom Hill
• Ryan Tannehill and 2023 2nd for Matthew Stafford
• Mac Jones and 2023 3rd for Matthew Stafford

For his part, a George Kittle passing route is as dangerous as any tight end in the history of the NFL. He has struggled to start the season after missing two weeks with injury but is a good bet to rebound.

• Calvin Ridley and 2023 2nd for George Kittle (TEP 2PPR)
• Dameon Pierce, Rashod Bateman, Dawson Knox for Josh Jacobs, Wan’Dale Robinson and George Kittle (TEP 2PPR)
• James Cook, Khalil Shakir, 2023 2nd, 2023 3rd, and 2024 2nd for George Kittle and Kirk Cousins (TEP 1.5PPR)

Takeaways

If a dynasty trade is available to you that would have been unthinkable a month ago, ask yourself why. If the player you are acquiring is below an elite baseline, they are probably a good buy-low candidate. This is particularly true when they play premium positions in your format, and the players you are trading away do not play premium positions in the format.