DraftKings GPP Domination Week 6

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.

Slate Overview- Weird Slate

Look, this is going to be one of the weirdest slates that we’ve had in a long time. The reason for that is that a significant amount of lineup builds are going to look incredibly similar. A significant amount of lineups are going to have the Buffalo/Kansas City Stack with a combination of the running backs benefiting from injury (Stevenson, Benjamin, Walker, and Henderson).

From a game theory perspective, fading some of these players is likely the right move, but it is going to be difficult to swallow given how a lot of these players project. Understanding the roster percentages of each of these games is critical. You can certainly have pieces of these highly rostered players, for example having one or two of the cheap running backs, but just not taking three of them. Or if you want to stack the Kansas City vs Buffalo game, take the Kansas City side of it given the reduced roster percentages of Mahomes and Kelce compared to Allen and Diggs.

Stacks

Top Stack

Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, Rondale Moore

Geno Smith surprisingly has been one of the fantasy stars over the last three weeks. Smith has averaged 305 passing yards per game with 2.3 touchdowns against the Falcons, Lions, and Saints. While the competition may not be the most impressive, Arizona has allowed the 8^th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks including 27.7 DraftKings points to Jalen Hurts and 37.9 to Patrick Mahomes II.

Tyler Lockett is a player who is just too cheap at just $5,600. Lockett has 75 yards or more in four straight games and finally found the end-zone last week scoring twice against the Saints. Both Lockett and Metcalf are solid plays here, but with an $1,100 price difference, Lockett allows you to spend up elsewhere.

Under the Radar Stacks

Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Saquon Barkley

This is an interesting stack simply because a lot of optimizers will simply ignore forcing this into existence. Normally stacking a quarterback with the opposing running back is not necessarily a great idea, but Saquon represents so much of the Giants offense that if this game becomes a high scoring game, it is likely because Barkley has played a significant part of that. Barkley represents 41% of the Giants total offense which is the highest in the league of any player.

On the Baltimore side of the ball, Mark Andrews leads all tight ends in yards, is second in targets, and represents 33% of the Ravens receiving volume this season which is also first in the NFL. Simply put, he’s a big portion of this offense and we’ve seen multiple touchdown upside from Andrews which is something he has done three times over the last two seasons.

Fade Stacks

Kansas City vs Buffalo

Look as we mentioned in the strategy section this all comes down to your appetite and risk that you’re willing to take. It’s looking like Stefon Diggs is going to be 20-25% rostered, Josh Allen looks like he will be the highest rostered quarterback of the season right around 20%. Meanwhile, auxiliary players such as Devin Singletary and Gabriel Davis will also be 12-14%. If this game becomes a high scoring game, at those roster percentages there is not even a guarantee that you will do anything beyond a minimum cash.

We all watched the Divisional round of the playoffs last year in which it was 42-36. However, the team’s played earlier that year in a game that was 38-20, and the only players who reached GPP value were Josh Allen, Dawson Knox, and Mecole Hardman. In a game that saw 58 points scored, Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill all failed to reach value. This game is projected to score just 53.5, where there are other games (Seattle vs Arizona 50.5) and Tampa Bay (projected to score 28.5) that could easily be the highest scoring team of the week at lower roster percentages.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position.

QUARTERBACK

High-End Play

The top-end of the quarterbacks is difficult this week due to the pricing and uncertainty of some of the lower end options.

Josh Allen- $8,200- 20.7%

While we stated to fade the stack of the Bills vs Chiefs, the one player that you could consider this week is Josh Allen by himself. In the two matchups last season, Allen contributed significantly on the ground as he averaged 63.5 yards rushing with a touchdown. A vast majority of the people who have Allen will have him stacked with one of his receiving options, so you can be unique in the sense of having Allen on the off-chance he rushes for 2+ touchdowns and throws 300 yards without a passing touchdown. Allen is just +120 to run for a touchdown this week.

Joe Burrow- $6,700- 2.4%

Joe Burrow is going to go completely overlooked this week and it’s primarily due to the price and what is perceived to be a difficult matchup going against the Saints. However, the Saints will be without their top corner in Marshon Lattimore. This is a game that both Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are going back to Louisiana for the first time since playing at LSU together. For Chase, he is another player who is going to go overlooked and is a fantastic stack this week with Burrow. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase have yet to fully connect on a massive game like we saw last season. At just 2.4% rostered, Burrow has big upside at just $6,700.

Value Plays

Kirk Cousins- $6,000 3.2%

Miami’s secondary is absolutely abysmal this season. On the year, the Dolphins secondary is allowing 286 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game. The Dolphins expected this unit to be a strength heading into this season, but that just has not occurred as Byron Jones remains on the PUP list, while Xavien Howard is still day-to-day and it doesn’t look like he will be able to go this week. Cousins is an easy stacking option with Justin Jefferson who we know has some of the highest upside of any wide receiver in any week. Cousins has 300+ yard and multiple touchdown upside almost any week he takes the field, while also having a low floor, but we don’t necessarily care about how low the floor is in a GPP.

Running Back

High-End Play-

Alvin Kamara- $6,700- 9.5%

The Saints this week will be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry once again this week. While Chris Olave should play, he is also questionable with a concussion heading into this week and was only a limited participant in practice. Last week, we saw the Saints open up to Kamara who had 194 yards last week including 6 receptions which is more than he had in his two previous games. While the matchup is a difficult one, Kamara as a receiver at a sub-10% roster percentage could pay off tremendously as long as Taysom Hill does not score 3 rushing touchdowns like he did last week.

Value Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson, $6,000- 32.2%

Taking a running back at 30%+ is almost never advisable. However, this case is different. At $6,000, Stevenson saw 25 carries as Damien Harris left the game early due to injury. This week, Stevenson is facing a Browns rushing defense that seemingly could not stop any running back over the last two week as they’ve allowed 252 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game over the last two weeks. The Patriots are going to lean heavily on Stevenson as it appears Mac Jones will miss this week once again. Stevenson is about $1,000 too cheap and is the top running back who is benefiting from injury.

Eno Benjamin, $4,600- 27.2%

Recommending two players who are near 30% at the running back position is a bit tough to swallow, but let’s remember the theme of this article which is to fade the Kansas City vs Buffalo game. The one thing that you should consider is that if you are going to stack Kansas City vs Buffalo, it will be extremely difficult to also take players such as Rhamondre Stevenson and Eno Benjamin without having a duplicate lineup as someone else in the contest.

Benjamin gets the benefit of both James Conner and Darrell Williams being out this week. Helping Benjamin even further is that he is facing a Seattle defense that has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. Every lead back that Seattle has faced this season has topped 100 combined rushing+ receiving yards. Benjamin is a solid receiving back who has 12 receptions on the year even in a limited role.

Fade

Ken Walker- $5,400- 24.5%

With three running backs that all should be somewhat popular this week, choosing between them is somewhat difficult. However, from a risk standpoint, Walker likely has the highest amount of risk given the team that he plays for. With Rashaad Penny being injured, many are assuming that Walker will get his normal allotment of carries plus Penny’s carries, and that just doesn’t seem likely. Penny who is a very good running back who has been in the system for five seasons, averaged 11.4 carries per game. To think that they’re going to unleash Walker and give him 20 touches, just does not seem realistic. Expect Deejay Dallas to have a role similar to what Walker was prior to Penny’s injury.

Wide Receiver

High-End Plays-

Mike Evans- $7,000 8.5%

We wrote a little bit earlier in the article that Tampa Bay is a potential high scoring team that you could target if you’re trying to fade the Buffalo vs Kansas City game. In that game, Mike Evans is likely the favorite GPP target. The reasoning is somewhat simple as Leonard Fournette is going to be too popular after his huge performance last game as a receiver, and Chris Godwin just does not score enough touchdowns with just five last season and zero so far this year to have the upside of a player like Evans. Evans scored 14 touchdowns in 2021 and 13 touchdowns in 2020 and is the favorite red zone target of Tom Brady. His touchdowns often come in bunches as he had four multi-game touchdowns in 2021, and three multi-touchdown games in 2020. The Steelers are also allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.

Value Plays

Chris Olave- $5,500 7.4%

With no Jarvis Landry or Michael Thomas, Chris Olave was well on his way to an 11 target game prior to leaving last week due to injury. Olave saw 6 targets before being injured just 3 minutes into the second-half. Olave is a very talented rookie and has shown he has big yardage potential as he had a 147-yard game earlier this season. With the Bengals having an elite run defense, look for the Saints to need to go to Olave often this week. Olave will likely see a lot of fellow alumni Eli Apple who he likely knows well since most of the Ohio State players work out together in the offseason.

D.J. Moore- $5,100- 3.2%

D.J. Moore is an interesting play this week. There’s no denying that he has been abysmal this season with Baker Mayfield as the starting quarterback this year, but with P.J. Walker getting the start, he has an opportunity to get back on track as the team’s number one receiver. In Walker’s last start in 2020, Moore caught 127 yards on 7 receptions as Walker threw for 258 yards. The Panthers are expected to be losing this game against the Rams, so it is extremely plausible that Moore can have a significant role if the Panthers are forced to throw the ball.

Tight End

High-End Play

Mark Andrews- $7,000 13.4%

Mark Andrews is a top-end play this week as when it comes to tight ends, he has as much upside as anyone on this slate and is $800 cheaper than Travis Kelce. The Giants have not been tested against any elite tight ends as they’ve faced Geoff Swaim, Ian Thomas, Peyton Hendershot, Cole Kmet and Marcedes Lewis this season. Linebacker Tae Crowder has been one of the worst coverage linebackers in football over the last several seasons and the Giants struggled against elite tight ends last season.

Value Plays

David Njoku- $4,000 5.2%

David Njoku continues to get no respect from the fantasy community. Njoku was signed to a big contract in the offseason which led many question what the Browns were doing, but over the last three games Njoku has stepped up to an elite level. Njoku has 70 or more yards in each of his last three games, and with Bill Belichick likely going to sell out to stop Nick Chubb this is going to create an opportunity for Njoku to beat this Patriots defense which has struggled against elite tight ends this season as Mark Andrews had his best game of the year with 89 yards and 2 touchdowns earlier this season.

George Kittle- $5,100 3.8%

George Kittle is a bit of an enigma. While he missed time earlier this season, he is coming out and saying that he feels the great and the best he’s felt all season. At $5,100, he’s largely not even being looked at by the fantasy community as it seems like most have just written him off. However, we saw this a bit last year. George Kittle had a 13 yard game against Minnesota on November 28^th in a game that he only had two targets. The next two weeks, Kittle averaged 13.5 targets 166 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. He’s a guy who can seemingly pop with these massive games any given week and while it’s not a probable situation, if it happens and only 3-5% of people have him at just $5,100, those people are going to be in a tremendous spot this week.

Fade

Tyler Higbee- $4,600 14.5%

Tyler Higbee is a great cash game play, but as a GPP play he seems to be getting too much love this week. The reason he is going to be popular is obvious as he has averaged 12 targets per game over the last two weeks, but this is a player who has never had more than 5 touchdowns in a season and has zero on the year so far this season. He’s also nursing an ankle injury this week which is a concern heading into the game against Carolina this week.

Player Chart