Thank You
We originally were not planning on doing an article, but based on feedback have added this late as a thank you for this season. The viewership and support of this article has been tremendous and for that I thank each and every one of you.
I do have some goals to change up the format for the 2023 season including getting more content out earlier and becoming a better writer, but if you have anything you'd like to see in any of our DFS content please reach out via email knotts@footballguys.com
Approaching a Two Game Slate
With this being just a two game slate, this article is really non-viable in its traditional sense as it is primarily a cash game article. In no way do we recommend you playing cash games this week as on a two game slate there is just no practical reason doing so given the amount of overlap that will exist between teams. This modified article is going to entirely be in the mindset of a GPP format.
On a two-game slate, much like the rest of the playoffs, the advice here is that smart bankroll management would tell you that you probably should not be playing cash games during the playoffs. You should treat this week as a lottery type week where you’re just shooting for upside and playing it for fun rather than try to get an edge over the field as there are just so few options that are viable this week it makes it difficult.
GPP Strategy
Typically during a GPP contest, we give the guidance that roster percentage plays a critical role and that you should try to intentionally not fill out a roster with the most heavily rostered players as you’ll be giving up win equity based on having duplicate rosters as your opponents. On a 2 game slate, roster percentages matter much less than a normal week, as it is almost a certainty that you’ll have a duplicate roster unless you leave $1,500+ salary on the table, or you take some very obscure players. Where roster percentages do come into play is if a player is going to be extremely highly rostered and you believe they have a chance to fail then taking a fade on that player will lead you to a significant leg up on the competition.
Note: There will be no lineup section this week. This week there is already going to be a significant amount of overlap, and it doesn't feel right to drive more people to a singular lineup that essentially would cause them to lose win equity by using a provided lineup. Get creative, have fun, and tell yourself a narrative that could work out this week.
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Quarterback
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| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Brock Purdy | 15.5 | $6,900 | Purdy doesn’t have the upside of a Burrow, Mahomes or Hurts, but with it just being a two-game slate, there's no guarantee that one of those quarterbacks have a top tier game. Purdy has thrown for 2+ touchdowns in all of his starts except for his last one. On a slate with very little value, Purdy could be a key piece that opens up salary flexibility that allow you to comfortably fit in Travis Kelce. The Eagles pass defense has been a premier unit all season, but they have shown a little bit of cracking down the stretch of the season as they allowed 19+ FanDuel points to Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, and Davis Webb in Week 14-17. If Burrow/Mahomes/Hurts have their upside game, this won't be in the winning lineup, but all of those quarterbacks have questions heading into this week as well. |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | 20.2 | $8,300 | The Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. On a two-game slate, the defenses are very strong, but the Chiefs are the one positive matchup that should be exploited by Joe Burrow and the Bengals this week. Back in Week 13, Burrow threw for 286 and 2 touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards and a touchdown. Burrow has shown an ability to run the ball where needed as he did run the ball for 31 yards last week against the Bills. The Chiefs secondary has been playing better as of late as they have not allowed a quarterback to top 250 yards since Week 13 when Joe Burrow did this, but they have faced somewhat weak competition since that contest. |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | 23.7 | $9,200 | Hurts is in a difficult matchup going up against the 49ers, but the 49ers defense is much better against the run than they are against the pass. Over the second half of the season, the 49ers have allowed 28 FanDuel points to Jarrett Stidham, a combined 20 points to Carson Wentz/Taylor Heinicke, and 18 to Geno Smith. The problem with Hurts is just the price, as he has the highest upside on this slate with his mobility, but at $9,200 we're going to need 27+ points using a 3x model. In cash games (if you're playing them), he'd be higher just based on his rushing upside, but very few people are playing cash this week. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jerick McKinnon | 10.8 | $6,500 | At just $6,500, getting a running back who leads the Chiefs in red zone targets on a 2 game slate is extremely enticing. McKinnon's floor is low, but is coming off of an 11 carry performance last week. The Bengals are extremely strong up the middle led by defensive tackle DJ Reader so the Bengals could look to utilize McKinnon on some more off tackle type runs. With Patrick Mahomes II' mobility in question this week, the Chiefs could get more creative by using McKinnon out in space. McKinnon leads the team in red zone opportunities this season which is carries+targets, and has scored 9 touchdowns over his last 7 games. |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | 17 | $9,000 | McCaffrey is in a bit of a weird spot this week as he is dealing with an ankle injury that has kept him out of practice for most of the week. At $9,000 McCaffrey is facing a good Eagles run defense that has improved since the additions of Linval Joseph and Ndamakong Suh as they've allowed just 77 yards rushing per game over their last 8 games of the regular season. McCaffrey has been a bit of a yo-yo as he has topped 100-yards rushing in 4 of his last 7 games, but has failed to top 50 yards in the other 3 games. |
| 3 | Isiah Pacheco | 9 | $6,300 | Pacheco could easily be the number one running back on this slate as his price is fantastic at just $6,300, but the problem is we don't know what volume that he is going to get this week. Pacheco was a volume workhorse from Weeks 10-16 as he had 15 or more touches in every game during that stretch and averaged 16.7 touches, but since then he is averaging just 10.6 touches over his last three weeks. If Pacheco can get back to the 15-17 touch range, he's going to be on GPP winners. With the lack of value options, Pacheco will likely be the most popular running back on this slate. |
| 4 | Joe Mixon | 13.8 | $8,100 | Mixon has mostly been disappointing this season, but is coming off of his second-best game of the year as he topped 100-yards last week against the Bills. While Mixon certainly has upside as the Chiefs have allowed 5 running backs to top 100 rushing+receiving yards including Samaje Perine back in Week 13, Mixon comes in at a bit of a weird price at $8,100, as his overall season stats don't warrant that price. He's a bit overpriced which could lead him to be under-rostered this week. |
| 5 | Samaje Perine | 6.6 | $5,300 | One of the backup running backs on this slate is likely going to be on a winning lineup. While the Philadelphia players are going to be the most popular, don't overlook Samaje Perine this week. Perine dominated the first matchup against Kansas City as he ran for 106 yards while adding another 49 yards receiving. If Mixon struggles early, look for the Bengals to potentially turn to Perine based on the prior success and Perine having a role in each game this season. Perine has been on the field for at least 40% of the plays in 8 of his last 9 games. |
| 6 | Miles Sanders | 10.8 | $6,200 | Miles Sanders is in a bit of a tough spot as the Eagles are taking on the clear number one run defense in the NFL, combined with Sanders not having more than 1 catch over his last six games, this could be a difficult game for him. |
| 7 | Jordan Mason | 3.5 | $4,600 | At $4,600, this is entirely a high-risk longshot play. This week we're looking for players who will go overlooked that could end up having a big game in a GPP. With Eli Mitchell looking like he is going to miss this week as the 49ers called up Tevin Coleman, Jodan Mason would slide into the number two running back. While Christian McCaffrey is saying all the right things, there is a chance that his ankle is worse than he is leading on and therefore Mitchell will see a significant workload this week. It's a long shot, but if you're playing multiple lineups, having one with Mitchell in there in case McCaffrey tweaks his ankle or Mitchell gets the short yardage work could end up paying off. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tee Higgins | 10.4 | $6,700 | At some point, Tee Higgins is going to show up again, and at $6,700 he's a player who has signiicant upside that could payoff tremendously. Higgins has been bad as of late as he is averaging just 24 yards receiving over his last three weeks, but he does have three 100-yard games over his last seven games. Recency bias is real in DFS so you could see some people staying away based on how bad he has been. In terms of a GPP upside play, Higgins is certainly someone who could have a game changing performance and while the chances are likely somewhere in the 30-40% range, in a GPP that is completely ok given many people will avoid playing him. |
| 2 | JaMarr Chase | 14.7 | $8,600 | Of the receivers on this slate, JaMarr Chase is in a talent tier of his own. Chase is the only receiver who has a realistic 150 yard 2 touchdown upside on this slate, and if that happens, he's going to be a critical component to your lineup. In these teams first meeting, Chase had 7 receptions for 97 yards, but did fail to score. Chase has scored a touchdown in 7 of his last 9 games, and while the price is high at $8,600, he will be extremely popular this week especially if more comes out about this Travis Kelce back injury. |
| 3 | Brandon Aiyuk | 9.2 | $6,000 | Brandon Aiyuk has become the reliable downfield threat for the 49ers. While he had a poor performance last week with just 2 receptions for 28 yards, that doesn't tell the full story. The 49ers took a deep throw early in the game that Brock Purdy just underthrew that should have been a 40+ yard touchdown. We're chasing upside on a two game slate, and Aiyuk at just $6,000 has 70+ yard upside as he has done that in three of his last five games. |
| 4 | Devonta Smith | 12.3 | 7700 | Devonta Smith should get the opportunity to exploit the only favorable matchup against the 49ers, as he will be matched up primarily against Deommodore Lenoir who has struggled since filling in for the injured Emmanuel Moseley. On the season Lenoir has allowed the third-most yards amongst all corners and has been the 5th most targeted corner in the NFL on the year. With the Eagles potentially having trouble running the ball, they will likely turn to Devonta Smith this week. At $7,700, Smith will be overlooked by a lot of people, and can be a great pivot off of JaMarr Chase. |
| 5 | Deebo Samuel | 11.5 | 7000 | At $7,000, Deebo is a little expensive, but there are two paths for him working out as a GPP play. The first is that if the pass rush of the Eagles gets to Brock Purdy as the Eagles lead the NFL in sacks with 70 which is the most since the 1984 Bears. If this happens, you could see a scenario where they try to get the ball out quickly to Samuel. The second scenario is if Christian McCaffrey were to be limited due to the ankle injury, Samuel's role could increase significantly. Samuel has had a down season compared to the 2021 breakout for the receiver, but he did finally break through showing his upside in the wildcard round as he had 165 yards and a touchdown which was the first time since McCaffrey joined the team that Samuel had topped 100 yards rushing + receiving. |
| 6 | Kadarius Toney | 7.2 | 5600 | Kadarius Toney finally showed last week that he can emerge as the top receiving option in Kansas City. With JuJu Smith-Schuster having struggled over the couse of the second-half of the season, Toney had a season-high of 7 targets this past week, and could be in line for more opportunity as it appears likely that Justin Watson will not play this week. Snaps have been the issue for Toney as he has not been on the field for more than 30% of the snaps, but if Watson is out this will open up opportunity for Toney who is likely the most talented wide receiver on this team and would get to face Cam Taylor-Britt which would be the favorable matchup for a wide receiver against Cincinnati. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | 16.7 | $8,000 | Travis Kelce needs no explanation as he is coming off of a 14 reception 97yard 2 touchdown performance. There is a little ibt of concern this week as Kelce was a late add to the injury report, but all signs are showing that he should be ok. Kelce is by far the top tight end this slate, just ecause of the upside that he brings that can be slate changing as we saw last week. On a two game slate, he's one of the first decisions that you should make on whether you're playing him or intentionally fading him. |
| 2 | George Kittle | 9.8 | $6,800 | The Eagles secondary is a good one, but one area that they may have a weakness against is the opposing tight end. The Eagles have faced one of the easiest tight end schedules in football, but since Week 13 have allowed 60 yards or more to Lawrence Cager, Juwan Johnson, and Chig Okonkwo. Kittle has 90 yards or more in three of his last six games and has 7 touchdowns over his last 6 games. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Philadelphia | 9 | $4,600 | The Eagles lead the NFL in sacks with 70 and had 15 more than the next closest team. Facing a rookie quarterback, this is a no brainer. On a two game slate, you could even play the Eagles against Brock Purdy as sacks and interceptions will force the 49ers to throw the ball even more. |
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Daily FF
FanDuel
Brandon Aiyuk
Joe Burrow
Lawrence Cager
Ja'Marr Chase
Tevin Coleman
Justin Fields
Taylor Heinicke
Tee Higgins
Jalen Hurts
Juwan Johnson
Daniel Jones
Linval Joseph
Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Deommodore Lenoir
Patrick Mahomes II
Jordan Mason
Christian McCaffrey
Jerick McKinnon
Joe Mixon
Emmanuel Moseley
Isiah Pacheco
Samaje Perine
Dak Prescott
Brock Purdy
Deebo Samuel
Miles Sanders
Geno Smith
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Jarrett Stidham
Cam Taylor-Britt
Kadarius Toney
Justin Watson
Davis Webb
Carson Wentz
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