Cracking DraftKings Conference Championships

Photo: Imagn Images

Conference Championship Games

• San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 46.5 - Spread Eagles -2.5
• Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Chiefs -1

49ers at Eagles

• 49ers:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 4th
    • Dropback EPA: 3rd
    • Rush EPA: 4th
    • Points per game: 6th
    • Yards per game: 5th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 3rd
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 2nd
    • Points per game allowed: 1st
    • Yards per game allowed: 1st
  • Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+173)
• Eagles:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA: 6th
    • Rush EPA: 1st
    • Points per game: 3rd
    • Yards per game: 3rd
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 2nd
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 1st
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 14th
    • Points per game allowed: 8th
    • Yards per game allowed: 2nd
  • Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+133)

This game is about to be a slobber knocker. Both offenses rank top five in numerous statistics and both defenses rank top three in important areas. This is anyone's game but the Eagles are playing at home, were the best team in the regular season, and just demolished the Giants 38-7 last week. Jalen Hurts ($7,200) looked healthy last week and should be all systems go on Sunday. That's exciting since Hurts led all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (28) from Weeks 1-17 in the regular season. Hurts' advantage in this tough matchup is his rushing ability. Hurts ran for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns in just 15 games during the regular season and he added another rushing score last week in the Divisional Round.

A.J. Brown ($7,000) was a disappointment last week, catching only 3 of 6 targets for 22 yards. It's time to pounce in tournaments and roster him this week. The 49ers defense, for as dominant as it has been, has struggled with containing alpha wide receivers on the outside. Look for Nick Sirianni's offensive game plan to lean into the pass and funnel targets toward Brown. Let's zoom out and remember Brown ranked 17th in targets per game (8.4), sixth in receiving yards per game (87.6), and third in receiving touchdowns (11) in the regular season. DeVonta Smith ($6,800) is a stud in his own right and should also be a major benefactor of a pass-heavy approach. Smith caught seven more passes than Brown during the regular season in the same number of games and also outproduced him in the Divisional Round. Dallas Goedert ($4,100) is an affordable way to gain access to this passing game with their projected pass-heavy approach. Goedert really shouldn't be this cheap. He's a full-time player and one of the most talented tight ends in football. And since there are only two games on this slate, Quez Watkins ($3,100) and Zach Pascal ($3,000) each deserve a mention. Pascal actually played on more snaps last week than Watkins (24 to 22) but Watkins caught 18 more passes than Pascal during the regular season. Both are in play in large field tournaments.

Miles Sanders ($5,200), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,800), and Boston Scott ($4,600) are all fades. They share time, are rarely targeted, and have a tough matchup against one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL.

For the 49ers, Brock Purdy's ($5,300) streak of seven straight games throwing for two or more touchdown passes came to an end last week when he failed to throw any touchdowns. The rookie Purdy will be tested in a hostile environment on the road against a good Eagles defense. Prdy isn't an exciting play but due to DraftKings pricing Purdy much cheaper than the other quarterbacks, he's back in play this week after being recommended as a total fade during the Divisional Round. Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) is dealing with a minor calf injury but he'll be good to go against a defense that can be attacked against the run. McCaffrey ranked fourth in the league in opportunities per game (21.2) during the regular season and has monster receiving upside in this matchup. Meanwhile, Elijah Mitchell ($4,900) is a total fade due to his elevated price tag.

George Kittle ($5,200), Deebo Samuel ($5,700), and Brandon Aiyuk ($4,400) are all in play. Aiyuk has a tough matchup on the outside against Darius Slay and James Bradberry so let's stick with Samuel and Kittle attacking the middle, which is the more vulnerable aspect of the Eagles defense. Samuel is a fantastic tournament play after a down game last week, especially priced at just $5,700. Jauan Jennings ($3,300) should also see more favorable matchups in the middle of the field and played on 45% of the offensive snaps last week. He's in play in large field tournaments.