Can Tua Tagovailoa be a QB1 in 2022?

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The Spotlight Series

A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.

There is no player in fantasy more polarizing than Tua Tagovailoa. People forget that just three years ago, while at Alabama, Tagovailoa was the consensus QB1 of his draft class over both Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. The "Tank for Tua" campaign was in full force during the 2019 season, only to see it derailed after he suffered a career-threatening hip injury midseason. Due to his injury, he slipped to the No. 5 overall pick and was drafted by the Miami Dolphins. Since then, Tagovailoa has struggled to live up to expectations and has seen Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert become superstars. The difference between them and Tagovailoa is that their franchises put them into positions to succeed, while Tagovailoa has fought an uphill battle. From injuries to poor roster construction to the Deshaun Watson saga, Tagovailoa has dealt with adversity his entire career. Now that the franchise seems to be building a team around him, can Tagovailoa finally live up to expectations and finish as a top-12 quarterback in fantasy football? Heading into year three with a new coaching staff that believes in him and an organization that is finally building around him, there are no more excuses. This is a make-or-break year for the young quarterback. Tagovailoa can finish as a low-end QB1 in 2022, and here’s why:

• He's finally healthy
• The new offensive scheme fits Tagovailoa's strengths
• The offensive line is improved
• The supporting cast is the best of his career

Health

Tagovailoa has had his fair share of injuries in the past. From hand fractures to rib fractures to ankle procedures, he has dealt with injuries since he started playing college football. But no injury was more damaging to his career than the injury he suffered against Mississippi State that ended his college career and almost his NFL career before it got started. Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated hip with a posterior wall fracture, an injury most commonly associated with high-speed motor vehicle accidents. It’s the same injury that ended Bo Jackson’s career. While the surgery went well, he has struggled with his lower body/hip rotation for the last two years. Here is what we saw from Tagovailoa during his rookie season and the concerns about his progression from the injury.

•MIA - Deep throws have been where Tua’s issues are most pronounced. See below, he’s relying on core & arm to push the arm down the field. He doesn’t fully lean into his Right plant leg & instead rotates at the trunk. Minimal lower body/hip rotation.
It visibly effects accuracy. pic.twitter.com/vUtoskmqg4

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) December 30, 2020

Jeff Mueller is a trusted injury analyst, and over the last two years, he’s done an excellent job breaking down Tagovailoa’s injury history. Mueller highlighted throughout the process that it would take time for Tagovailoa to get his lower body strength back to normal, but the real test would be a mental one. With an injury as traumatic as his hip injury, it was always going to take a long time to feel 100% mentally comfortable. When you add on time missed due to other injuries and the Covid-shortened preseason his rookie year; he has been fighting an uphill battle ever since. But we have seen improvements in his throwing motion in the clip below.

here's a look at that pretty throw from tua to DVP for 37 yards🎯 pic.twitter.com/Oy3diDYZuq

— josh houtz (@houtz) December 22, 2021

You’ll notice towards the end of last season, he started trusting his lower body more, and it showed on his downfield passes. His completion percentage, yards per attempt, true completion percentage, and advanced accuracy increased from his rookie season to his sophomore season. The proof is in the numbers, and we should expect further improvement this season. While many fans want immediate fulfillment and have high expectations, Tagovailoa’s recovery should have always garnered him more time to recover completely. The last time we saw him healthy (at Alabama), he threw for 3,966 yards and forty-three touchdowns and had an 11.2 yards per attempt in just fifteen games.

Coaching Scheme

Mike McDaniel's hiring as the Dolphins’ head coach bodes well. McDaniel has coached for six different NFL teams who ran the West Coast offense, including a zone-blocking scheme. Playing quarterback in a West Coast offense requires accuracy and intelligence; two traits Tagovailoa possesses in abundance. The coach's system also utilizes shorter routes which means more 3-step and 5-step drops, allowing the ball to get out quicker to the Dolphin’s playmakers. That should, in turn, provide higher completion opportunities in the short and intermediate parts of the field. Which should then help limit turnovers. McDaniel’s offense should also incorporate plenty of play-action within the zone-read rushing attack to help keep defenses honest in crowded box situations. Despite the perception he struggles with deep balls, Tagovailoa had a deep completion percentage of 55.2 percent on passes of 20 yards or more downfield, ranking him No. 1 among 2021 quarterbacks. The issue was he only attempted a deep pass 7.5% of the time. Last season, he ranked fourth in play-action accuracy (69%), which bodes well given McDaniel's penchant for play-action calls. His decision-making is his biggest asset, and his ability to make the right decisions on throws fits this system perfectly.

The West Coast system also puts receivers in a position to make choices on each route, and hopefully generate yards after the catch (YAC). Essentially, the receivers have three options at the top of their routes: cutting inside, cutting outside, or finding a spot in the zone to sit. The offense puts pressure on all levels of the defense, and then the quarterback must make the right read. This scheme has elevated the quarterback play of Nick Mullens and Jimmy Garoppolo. Neither of them is in the same tier as Tagovailoa. Garoppolo averaged 8.4 yards per attempt in this system, which should bode well for Tagovailoa. This system has always been quarterback-friendly, and Miami's signal-caller is the best quarterback McDaniels has coached in his career.

Bolstered Offensive Line

On top of an improved offensive scheme, the Dolphins have also bolstered the offensive line this offseason. According to Pro Football Focus’ offensive line grades last season, the Dolphin’s finished dead last, and the pass block win rate was also the league's worst. Miami added tackle Terron Armstead and guard Connor Williams in free agency. Armstead is one of the best tackles in the NFL. Armstead and Williams project as starters on the left side, meaning Michael Deiter will be starting at center. Deiter has underperformed but looks to be a better fit in McDaniel’s system and will have some pressure taken off of him in the zone-blocking scheme. Robert Hunt will be the team’s starting right guard, and former second-round pick Liam Eichenberg has a chance to start at right tackle this season. Eichenberg will benefit from new offensive line coach Matt Applebaum. Throughout his college tenure, Applebaum helped coach multiple All-ACC and All-American honorees, most notably guard Zion Johnson and center Alec Lindstrom. Boston College’s offensive line ranked second in college football in 2021, and he was a home run hire.

The real value of this system is it will take pressure off the offensive line, and players will be working together to block defenders in areas rather than assigned defenders. We should see the Dolphins utilize more double teams, and an improvement in both pass and run blocking. For the first time in Tagovailoa’s NFL career, he will have a top-15 offensive line and a consistent scheme with great coaching.

Offensive Weapons

The Dolphin’s not only improved their offensive line but also added weapons all over the football field. The staple of a Mike McDaniel offense is getting athletes in open space and allowing them to use their athleticism to make big plays. That philosophy will fit perfectly for the Dolphin’s big splash this offseason: Tyreek Hill. Hill is a special player with game-changing ability and is a threat to break off big plays every chance he gets. Hill will excel within the system and its primary routes in this offense. Defenses will need to prepare for Hill to run slants, crossing routes, screen passes, and dig routes. Not to mention the various ways Hill will be used in the offense as a rusher. McDaniel has already talked about getting Hill involved in creative ways, and while we aren't projecting him to mimic 2021's version of Deebo Samuel, there will be opportunities for Hill to have increased usage in Miami.

Hill will also be playing alongside the best receiver he’s ever played with in Jaylen Waddle. Waddle finished last season as WR14 averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game. Both Hill and Waddle are two of the league's best after the catch, and now defenses have to account for both players simultaneously. Miami also added the underrated Cedrick Wilson who earned sixty-one targets last season with the Cowboys and should start in the slot. If tight end Mike Gesicki can improve his pass blocking, he could be another dynamic piece and take on the George Kittle role in the system. Gesicki saw 112 targets last season, including 15 red-zone targets.

On top of the improvements in the passing attack, the Dolphins also brought in Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel to revamp the rushing attack. You need a dominant rushing attack in the West Coast scheme, and while there may not be a single workhorse tailback to make fantasy managers happy, the combination of the new additions bodes well for a productive overall committee. Edmonds will be the best pass-catching back that McDaniels has coached. He caught 96 passes for 713 yards and four touchdowns in the last two seasons in Arizona. In 2021, San Francisco’s running backs accounted for 98 targets, including thirty-seven targets to fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Look for Tagovailoa to excel within this system with some of the best weapons he’s played with in his career.

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Mike McDaniel has all the pieces needed to build an elite offense in Miami. He has put in the best system possible for Tua Tagovailoa’s development as a quarterback, and we should see vintage Alabama Tagovailoa in 2022. It is not inconceivable Miami emerges as a top-10 offense this season and for Tagovailoa to finish as a low-end QB1. If you believe both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill should be ranked as top 20 wide receivers, there is no reason why Tagovailoa shouldn't be ranked as a top-12 quarterback. For the first time in his career, he is healthy and has an offensive system built around him. There are no more excuses for the young quarterback, and he should rise to the occasion. If you're looking for a late-round quarterback who can win your fantasy leagues by exceeding expectations, draft Tagovailoa.

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