Three Up, Three Down: Week 9

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An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. Dave Kluge has listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and lets you know what to do with them in Week 9's "Three Up, Three Down" article.

NOTE: There will not be a "Three Up, Three Down" for Week 10 but this column will resume for Week 11.

Three Up

Khalil Herbert

We have seen quite a few backfields flip through the first half of the NFL season. Before being traded to New York, James Robinson slowly saw his touches disappear to Travis Etienne. Cam Akers appeared to be the lead back in the offseason, but awful efficiency has seen his workload go to Darrell Henderson and Ronnie Rivers. After not leaving the field as a rookie, Najee Harris is slowly seeing his workload dissipate. The writing is on the wall for changing the guard in Chicago. Overall, Montgomery has more touches and snaps on the year than Khalil Herbert. But Herbert is leading the backfield in yards per attempt, rushing yards over expectation per attempt, yards per touch, total scrimmage yards, touchdowns, and, most surprisingly, fantasy points per game. While the snap shares still tilt heavily in Montgomery’s favor (95 to 51 over the last two weeks), Herbert is getting more looks on the field. Herbert has 29 touches in the previous two weeks compared to Montgomery’s 33. When he’s on the field, the staff is making a concerted effort to get him the ball, and he’s doing great with the opportunities. Herbert is third in the league in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, behind just Travis Etienne and Tony Pollard. Montgomery’s 0.11 isn’t bad, but it’s hard to ignore the difference that Herbert is making on the field. With Montgomery expected to hit free agency next year, the Bears will likely throw some more touches Herbert’s way to gauge their confidence in him heading into 2023. In the one start Herbert had this season, he amassed 101 scrimmage yards. And despite his limited role, he’s sixth among all running backs in total rushing yards. Viewed this offseason as no more than a handcuff, Herbert is carving out stand-alone value for himself and could usurp Montgomery as the Bears’ lead back.

Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson’s placement on this list isn't an endorsement that you should plug him into your starting lineup next week. But if you're a team sitting towards the bottom of your league’s standings and need to shake things up, there are signs of life in Robinson's recent usage. After his Week 1 outing with one catch for 12 yards, Robinson has drawn 5.7 targets per game. He failed to do much with the opportunities early in the season. But over the last two games, he has amassed 117 yards and a touchdown. He’s also averaging 1.7 red zone targets per game. While that may not sound like much, only Travis Kelce, Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Zach Ertz, and Davante Adams have seen higher rates this year. The Rams seem determined to get the ball to Robinson in and near the end zone this year. And it makes sense, right? They gave him a three-year/$46.5M contract. And while salary doesn’t always dictate usage, this team is desperate for a reliable pass-catcher to step up alongside Cooper Kupp. It’s possible that 29-year-old Allen Robinson is on the downslope of his career arc. It’s also possible that he could be struggling to acclimate to a new offense and will have a second-half-of-the-season resurgence. Prior to 2021, Robinson had drawn 150-plus targets and 1,000 or more yards in back-to-back seasons. His acquisition cost on the trade market is close to nothing right now, and he’s worth the risk for some teams. For fantasy managers staring at a losing record, Robinson could help turn the ship around.