Three Up, Three Down: Week 15

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An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. Dave Kluge has listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and lets you know what to do with them in Week 15's "Three Up, Three Down" article.

Three Up

Jerick McKinnon

You can make a strong argument for starting Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco down the stretch in your fantasy football leagues. Although Pacheco dominates in total touches, McKinnon sees the high-value touches, targets, and red-zone work. We now have a three-game sample without Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Over that stretch, McKinnon has out-targeted Pacheco 12-to-5. In the first game without Edwards-Helaire, Pacheco was the preferred red-zone back. He saw a whopping 12 touches inside the 20-yard line but was very inefficient with those opportunities. Since then, McKinnon has siphoned that work, garnering eight red-zone touches to Pacheco’s two. McKinnon has had a weird career path. He was a combine darling after scoring 90th-percentile numbers across the board in speed, strength, burst, and agility. Despite being just 5'9" and 209 pounds, he repped 225 pounds on the bench press 32 times! Pound-for-pound, he is one of the strongest backs in the league. After playing a complementary role behind Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, he signed with the 49ers to be the presumed lead back. A brutal injury in the 2018 preseason caused him to miss two full seasons. But since joining Kansas City last year, he has been the running back that Andy Reid seems to trust the most. He got a lot of run in the playoffs last year. And now, as wins are increasingly important, he is seeing his opportunity share grow again. While Pacheco will be the between-the-20s hammer, McKinnon’s role as the passing-down and red-zone back gives him a very high floor and ceiling. And with the Texans, Seahawks, and Broncos being the three matchups to close the season, he could push your team to a fantasy championship.

Khalil Herbert

Could Khalil Herbert return before the fantasy season ends? Maybe. Maybe not. Should you pick him up? Absolutely! Reports say Herbert should be back sometime after the Eagles game this weekend. While that doesn’t provide much clarity, the upside is worth the bench spot. On an efficiency basis, Herbert has been arguably the best running back in the league. He leads all qualifying running backs in yards per attempt and rushing yards over expectation per attempt. Despite having a secondary role in the offense, he easily outperformed David Montgomery this season. Montgomery is great at what he does; catching passes and breaking tackles in open space. But when it comes to being a pure running back, Herbert has the apparent edge. He’s compact, has elite burst, and has the vision and patience to regularly rip off chunk plays. He has four runs this season of 20-plus yards compared to Montgomery’s one. Before his injury, he had carved out a steady role for himself, seeing 11.3 carries per game even with a healthy Montgomery. And Herbert averaged 21 touches and 135 yards per game in the two games where Montgomery was injured. The Chicago Bears are leading the league with 34.6 rushing plays per game. Herbert is a very talented running back in a healthy ecosystem. He has garnered enough workload to make for flex consideration, regardless of Montgomery’s health. And in the event of an injury, Herbert would instantly be in the conversation as a fantasy RB1.

Evan Engram

The tight end carousel continues to spin, and Evan Engram looks like the guy you want to jump on. He is coming off the best game of his career and quietly putting together an excellent bounceback season. Coming into the league, Engram was an elite athlete. His 772 yards as a rookie tight end were the fourth-most in NFL history. He led the Giants in targets that year and appeared to be the next big thing at the tight end position. But then Engram followed up a disappointing Year 2 marred by injuries with an even more disappointing Year 3. From there, Engram lost the trust of his coaching staff, dealt with harsh criticism from the New York fans and media, and saw his production plummet. But now, In Jacksonville, the 28-year-old former first-rounder is seeing a resurgence. His yards per reception, yards after catch, drop rate, touchdown rate, and target share are all trending up from the last two years with the Giants. A lot of that can be attributed to head coach Doug Pederson and some to the ascension of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Pederson had coached Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert over the years. He focuses his offenses around these players, running more two-tight end sets than any other coach. Engram was brought in on a one-year/$9M deal and has become a focal point of the offense. As for Lawrence, he has been surgical as of late, averaging 272 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions per game over his last five outings. In the previous two weeks. Engram has been the biggest beneficiary, seeing 22 targets and scoring three times. While tight ends have been difficult to predict this year, Engram is an elite athlete seeing an increased role in the offense. Plug him in for Week 15 against the Cowboys as your TE1.