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Three Lessons Learned – Week 8

I can confidently say I've learned one thing after two months of action. There are three good teams, and then there's everybody else. I could hear arguments for and against (almost) any other franchise. Even the Falcons! As we get deeper into the season, I'm still trying to sort through most players and their outlooks. To help, here are my notes on three lessons learned from Week 8.

Also, I've got a quick note. I'll be traveling in Week 9 so I won't have a piece out next week but I'll be back in Week 10!

Quarterback: Daniel Jones, Giants

Week 8 Results: (Projected) 17.8, (Actual) 9.0

I took the bait hook, line, and sinker. I caved after multiple weeks of watching Daniel Jones piloting an efficient offense. The swag was too much. But the injuries have taken their toll, and the façade built by Brian Daboll is starting to fade. Daniel Jones is still the same quarterback.

Advice Moving Forward:

Consider Jones as a low-end streaming option moving forward. His rushing efficiency and fantasy production are closely correlated, which drops his floor. Start only in advantageous matchups.

At first glance, Jones's efficiency metrics lend credence to the idea he's taken a step forward. He's 13th in expected points added (EPA) per play and 16th in dropback success rate. They're not career-saving improvements but helpful.

However, his 6.5 air yards per attempt are fewer than Baker Mayfield's (6.9). He's less accurate than Derek Carr. From a clean pocket without pressure from the defense, Jones is 23rd in EPA per attempt with a 6.6 aDOT. He's a non-aggressive, less-efficient passer. But it's not all his fault.

He's lost multiple pass-catchers to injury or trade, leaving the offense to him and Saquon Barkley. As a result, Daboll turned Jones into a battering ram jacking his designed-run rate up to 51.6%. The fantasy community got excited to see Jones used like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. However, he doesn't generate points like either quarterback.

I calculated the correlation between Jones's rushing efficiency and his fantasy scores for the 2022 season. Simply put, it's not good. With a 0.75 r-squared value, he needs to find success on the ground to have a good fantasy day. Usage like his boosts his ceiling, but we caught a glimpse of the floor on Sunday. To verify my findings, I looked at a similar quarterback in a similar offensive environment: Justin Fields. He had an r-squared value of 0.66, which is somewhat intuitive, given how connected his fantasy value is to his rushing. It doesn't mean we can't play either passer. We need to pick the right spots.

The Giants are on bye in Week 9 but face the Texans at home in Week 10. Their secondary is 11th in EPA per dropback allowed. However, they're dead last in rushing yards surrendered. If you need a streaming quarterback, a matchup like what's on tap for Jones is the right situation to target. Otherwise, avoid him until the following week.