3 Lessons Learned After Week 3

Photo: Imagn Images

I feel like we’re getting into the rhythm of the NFL season. Sunday night and Mondays are for (over)reactions to what we just saw. We recoil on Tuesday and put in waiver claims. But Wednesday is likely the most important day. It’s the bridge between the week before and the one ahead where we can stop and think. So, before we plunge into Week 4, here are three lessons from last week worth monitoring as we head into more action.

Quarterback: Matt Ryan, Colts

Week 3 Results: (Projected) 14.5, (Actual) 15.3

This season, we’ve seen three versions of the Matt Ryan. In Week 1, he was in charge of the offense. Sure, there were misfires in the red zone, but they moved the ball at will. Then, he completely fell apart in Week 2 against Jacksonville. And yet, the same quarterback outscored Patrick Mahomes II on Sunday. The NFL makes no sense, and I love it.

But I don’t know what to make of the Colts' passing game. Each week someone new becomes a focal point. They have three tight-ends catching passes! Ryan sits at the center of the chaos, and it’s difficult to see him as a viable starter unless something changes.

Advice Moving Forward

Bench or drop Matt Ryan. His passing rate has declined while succumbing to pressure at a high clip. His upcoming matchups make him unstartable unless we see consistent improvement.

Ryan’s arrival was supposed to open up this passing game. In 2020 with Philip Rivers under center, the Colts were 16th in early-down passing rate in neutral situations. While in purgatory with Carson Wentz, they fell to 22nd. And, if I had to judge, I’d place Ryan closer to Rivers on the quarterback spectrum and expect more passing. So far, I’m wrong on all accounts.

Ryan is 23rd in neutral passing rate with a -4.0% pass rate over expectation. But it’s not like the team started slow. In Week 1, he came out firing, and we saw all the off-season hype was true. However, things changed about as quickly as Ryan’s pass-catching personnel.

The Chiefs were top-5 in pressure rate coming into Week 3, so I expected a slight drop in passing. However, Ryan hit season-lows across the board. And this was with his regular supporting cast returning to the lineup. Justin Herbert just torched this same defense ten days ago. But here’s where pocket management and handling pressure become a separating trait for quarterbacks.

Unsurprisingly, Herbert is second in the percentage of pressures resulting in a sack. Ryan sits at 19th. His 9.3% sack rate is in the Top 8. Plus, he entered Week 3 with the most interceptions when pressured. His accuracy (21st in CPOE) is worse than Wentz’s (21st), and he’s currently less efficient than Justin Fields (33rd vs. 32nd in EPA per play). He’s too volatile to keep on your starting roster.

Short-passing games could work if there’s more volume. Like Mike White’s stretch of games in 2021. But Matt Ryan’s passing rates have all dropped. Two of their next four matchups are against secondaries in the top-10 in dropback EPA allowed. Let’s let the Colts get right before we start to trust Ryan in our lineups again.

Running Back: J.K. Dobbins, Ravens

Week 3 Results: (Projected) 10.0, (Actual) 6.0

After J.K. Dobbins said he’d be ready for Week 1, we didn’t know when we’d see him on the field. Lamar Jackson said Dobbins would be out in a couple of weeks earlier this month. Plus, more details of his knee injury surfaced, adding more confusion to his recovery timeline. However, he started and finished Week 3 without any setbacks, so all is forgiven. Or maybe not.