Photo: Imagn Images

After releasing articles on the strategy of late-round quarterbacks and tight ends earlier this week, the "upside" series continues with running backs. However, this article is not intended to follow the same format. If the optimal strategy is to draft quarterbacks and tight ends late due to the factors discussed in those articles, fantasy GMs would be filling their rosters with running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds.

This article will still focus on late-round running backs, but these players will be backups on our fantasy team, unlike the quarterbacks and tight ends. And they'll likely be backups on their NFL teams as well -- at least on draft day.

Because we've spent at least seven rounds filling our roster with backs and receivers, we have a true RB1 and at least two additional starter-quality running backs. Therefore, the goal with a late-round running back isn't to find a middling starter. It's to find a player who can provide us with RB1 production if his situation falls the right way.

Having multiple RB1s on a fantasy team is a massive edge for a fantasy GM. This article aims to provide a second (or third) RB1 to compliment the backs selected at the top of the draft.

The Recipe for RB1 Production

Potential League-Winners

Whether it's a late-round target that needs help to fulfill his potential or an elite RB1 like Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara, the ingredients are the same:

• Three-down talent: being on the field leads to fantasy points, as does catching passes. Running backs that don't play on third down have a more difficult path to RB1 status.
• Goal-line opportunity: touchdowns are worth six times as much as 10 rushing yards. Math is easy!
• Limited depth chart competition: again, the best fantasy assets are the ones on the field the most.

Throughout the offseason, we have released some collaborative posts on the site. One of those was asking the staff which deep sleeper running backs they like the most. Another was asking the staff about value plays at the position. The players listed below come from those articles and Chad Parsons' piece titled "21 League-Winning Players."

Note: This table assumes that the starter in front of these players is no longer in the picture. For example, in a world where Elliott exists, saying that Pollard has no depth chart competition is obviously incorrect. But if Elliott were out of the picture, Pollard would be the clear number one in Dallas.

Comments on each player:

• Hunt: RB1 pedigree and already 1B to an injury-prone 1A. Chubb is also near the end of his contract.
• Fournette: Fournette would dominate backfield touches without Jones. Played great in the postseason.
• Pollard: The RB1 in a high-octane offense checks all the boxes. Rest of the depth chart continues to be barren.
• Dillon: Green Bay is very high on him. And Dillon is the clear RB2/RB1B with Williams gone to Detroit.
• Murray: A perennial lock for a spot in this column. Murray is a three-down workhorse when called upon.

The order in which these players are listed can be debated, but the list generally flows from most RB1 upside to least. And here are some highlights from the backup running backs article linked above discussing some of these players:

Phil Alexander on Fournette:

Why are fantasy gamers so quick to write off Fournette's Super Bowl run with Tampa Bay, which included four playoff starts and averages of 20.5 touches, 4.5 receptions, 112 yards from scrimmage, and one touchdown per game? You know who won't be so quick to write off the boost Fournette gave the Buccaneers on their way to a championship? Tom Brady. That guy likes to win and has the ultimate say in which teammates receive the most playing time. Besides, Fournette is still only 26 years old and remains one of the NFL's elite size/speed running backs.

Phil also recently wrote a Player Spotlight on Fournette that laid out a great case for him as a value play -- even if he doesn't have an injury situation, gain him more playing time.

Chad Parsons on Pollard:

In flashes, Pollard has shown his potential. Insert a full workload on one of the NFL's most dynamic offenses, and Pollard can hit high-end RB1 status, just like Ezekiel Elliott, if Elliott misses time.

Parsons (again) on Dillon:

Aaron Jones was brought back in a surprising free-agent move, but Jamaal Williams is gone, who collected 150 touches - while Jones was the clear 1A - last season. Expect Dillon to be the 1B, not merely a handcuff option on this depth chart with 200+ touches in play even without an injury. If Jones were to miss games, Dillon is a top-10 option with upside from there for that cross-section of the season.

The Best of the Rest

This group of players is similar to the above group but lacking either the elite set of skills or the fantasy-rich offensive situation that the potential league-winners have. Players to target here could also include backups to starting running backs with a known injury history. Some of these players (Sermon, for instance) have standalone value already but would become every-week fantasy starters with injuries or ineffectiveness to others on their teams' depth charts.

Comments on each player:

• Hubbard: Who else handles the load if McCaffrey is injured again?
• Sermon: The rookie is gaining plenty of hype. But Gallman would still be involved without Mostert.
• Penny: Hasn't lived up to draft pedigree. But would get two downs and goal line without Carson.
• Williams: A three-down back in Kansas City. Would be 1A to Cohen's 1B without Montgomery.
• Jones: Unknown but has the size to carry the ball often. Already up a notch on the depth chart without Akers.
• Stevenson: Plenty of mouths to feed even if Harris does down. But a talented size/speed combo.

Sigmund Bloom on Sermon:

Sermon may require some patience as Raheem Mostert should be the at least the co-lead back to open the season, but Mostert isn't known for his durability and Kyle Shanahan won't push the issue and overwork Mostert in light of his injury history, giving Sermon the opportunity to assert himself in this backfield picture.

Justin Howe on Williams:

And with former Super Bowl hero Williams on board as well, Montgomery could find himself in a full-on committee. Should that happen, or should Montgomery go down to injury, Williams would benefit far more than Cohen as a three-down producer. Cohen caught 150 passes from 2018-19, a juicy role that the versatile Williams could share - or even steal outright as the one-trick Cohen returns from ACL surgery. Any real role in the backfield would produce value on Williams' ADP, but there's upside here to obliterate it.

The Right Way to Handcuff

"Handcuffing" (or drafting your start running back's backup as a contingency plan) has been a fantasy football strategy for years. But the traditional way to employ this strategy is flawed. Remember, the goal of fantasy football -- and our slogan here at Footballguys -- is to Dominate Your League. In a 12-team league, there are 11 losers. Don't play to stay with the pack; play to lap the field!

What does that mean in terms of handcuffing? As stated in the intro, the goal is to have multiple RB1s on your roster. Handcuffing Elliott with Pollard provides us with a maximum of one RB1. But drafting Elliott and then picking up Dillon, Murray, or Hubbard late gives us a chance to have two (or even three) RB1s if those late-round backs emerge. The naysayer will ask, "what if Elliott gets hurt, and I have zero RB1s because I didn't draft Pollard?" That means you might come in 10th in your league instead of 4th. Either way, you're one of 11 teams that didn't fulfill its goal.

We should always draft for upside. And targeting the "potential league winners" above allows us to do so.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at hester@footballguys.com.

Follow @RyanHester13