Unexpected Observations from Week 8

Photo: Imagn Images

The big news around week eight is the loss of Derrick Henry, who somehow miraculously handled over twenty carries after breaking a bone in his foot in the first quarter. The man is legitimately not from this planet. While not every situation around the league is quite as dramatic as this one, we can still gather some key information by digging into peripheral stats around the NFL.

Routes run and dropback data in this article is from Pro Football Focus. I prefer to focus on the percentage of routes run which is simply a player's routes divided by the team's total dropbacks. Terms: RMS = Rushing Market Share, TMS = Target Market Share, RR% = Routes Run percentage (of dropbacks)

Running Back Rotations

• Houston Texans: With the Texans trading Mark Ingram to the Saints, the door was flung open for somebody to emerge in Houston as the lead back. Enter Rex Burkhead. Burkhead's 49% snap rate was tops in the backfield, followed by Scottie Phillips (25%) who got his first snaps of the season. David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay both failed to top 20% of the snaps. Perhaps the Texans want to keep those two players on ice for the trade deadline? Or perhaps they want to experiment with the options at their disposal.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: An injury to James Robinson early in Week 8 opened the door for Carlos Hyde and Dare Ogunbowale to each see season highs in snaps (66% and 20% respectively). The team also recently added Devine Ozigbo as depth from New Orleans. Look for Hyde to carry the load while Ogunbawale lightens the load on third downs if James Robinson misses Week 9.
• Kansas City Chiefs: Much to the chagrin of showdown enthusiasts, Derrick Gore got his first reps of the season as a complementary back along with Darrel Williams. Williams and Gore split the rushing work 48% to 41% respectively, but Gore did not earn a target. Gore looked effective as a rusher in this Chiefs offense and helped provide them a much-needed spark in the middle of their most recent game.

• New Orleans Saints: The arrival of Mark Ingram led to question marks for Alvin Kamara and his workload. Those fears look warranted for now as Kamara posted his lowest snap rate of the season (67%) and his second-lowest target rate (11%). Ingram's role should grow a bit more in this offense, leaving Kamara a bit more reliant on elite efficiency, something that hasn't been as easy to find in the post-Brees era in New Orleans.
• Philadelphia Eagles: With the absence of Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell appeared to be the next man up in Philadelphia. However, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard emerged to make this a diabolical three-headed backfield. Scott (45%) led the team in snaps while the rushing work was split almost perfectly evenly across the board. This was an unexpected outcome for the Eagles. However, rumors began swirling about half an hour before kickoff that Boston Scott did indeed look like the "starter" based on the team's pregame activities. That proved to be correct and Scott looks like the best bet moving forward until Miles Sanders comes back.
• Tennessee Titans: As mentioned earlier, Derrick Henry was not sidelined for long after suffering a broken bone in his foot in the first quarter. With practically nowhere else to go, Mike Vrable turned to Jeremy McNichols (23% snaps) and Tory Carter (11%). Neither, however, handled a single rush attempt. Moving forward, the Titans have now brought in Adrian Peterson to handle the heavy load left behind by Henry while McNichols could also get a piece of that for himself in addition to his respectable receiving volume. The fact is, it will take multiple running backs to cobble together what Derrick Henry has left behind.
• Washington Football Team: For the first week in ages, Antonio Gibson's shin injury did not earn him a gameday injury report designation. The versatile running back appeared to be at full speed heading into Week 8. So it was a surprise to see Jaret Patterson log his biggest day of the season with 23% snaps and 46% RMS while Gibson took a backseat in a competitive game against Denver. J.D. McKissic led the backfield in snaps and targets.

Receiving Rotations

• Atlanta Falcons: With Calvin Ridley taking a moment to step away from football due to mental health, there was a big gaping hole in the Falcons passing attack. Ridley's absence led to increased roles for Russell Gage and Tajae Sharpe who both led the receivers with 68% snaps. Sharpe, however, out-targeted Gage 22% to 0%. The remainder of the passing game work fell to the running backs (who totaled 41% of the targets) and the tight ends (33%). Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson look like the only two viable options in this offense that is quickly falling off the rails.
• Denver Broncos: The return of Jerry Jeudy and Albert Okwuegbunam solidified the Broncos passing attack as - well - messy. With three viable receivers, two legitimate tight ends, and a pair of capable pass-catching running backs, not a single Bronco topped 16% TMS. While this is likely good news for Teddy Bridgewater, this really waters down the potency of Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and others.
• Kansas City Chiefs: Don't look now, but Josh Gordon played 40% of the snaps for Kansas City in their Monday Night Football appearance against the Giants. Gordon saw just one target, but it is an encouraging sign for a team that really needs another player to step up. Gordon's role led to a season-low in snaps for Mecole Hardman (49%) and Demarcus Robinson (41%). Gordon could jump in soon enough as a contributor if he can earn the trust of Patrick Mahomes II.
• New York Giants: The injury bug continues to bite the Giants playmakers, including Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney who both missed periods of this game. Toney appears to have emerged okay while Shepard looks a bit more banged up. In addition, Dante Pettis also left this game due to injury. This led to a season-high in snaps for Evan Engram and Darius Slayton. Hopefully, the Giants get Barkley and Golladay back in the rotation soon enough, but until then look for Engram and Slayton (plus Toney, if healthy) to carry the load.

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