Unexpected Observations from Week 6

Photo: USA Today Sports

The meat grinder that is the NFL season continues to devour its prey. As injuries mount up around the league, it's a good time to pause and reflect on draft strategy. Here we sit, one-third of the way through the NFL season and already we see how laughable some of our preseason opinions turned out to be. We see how much we got wrong. We see how much was beyond our control.

In golf, there is a common saying, "It ain't how you drive - it's how you arrive." If you're not a golf enthusiast, this phrase is a reminder that the biggest opportunity to improve your golf score is getting the ball on the green effectively. The 300-yard drive means nothing if you can't lob a pitching wedge on for a birdie chance. There is an analogy here for fantasy football where the draft is your drive, but the in-season management of your team is how you arrive. Of course, the best golfers are great from the tee box and beyond - and we should strive to be as well. But there is a significant advantage to playing waivers, making advantageous trades, and mastering your start-sit calls.

That is where this article hopes to give you an edge. With Unexpected Observations, we look for leading indicators - snaps, routes run, and other opportunity metrics that tell a tale that the box score stats often disguise. Now let's pull out our 8 iron and try to snug it within five feet.

Routes run and dropback data in this article is from Pro Football Focus. I prefer to focus on the percentage of routes run which is simply a player's routes divided by the team's total dropbacks. Terms: RMS = Rushing Market Share, TMS = Target Market Share, RR% = Routes Run percentage (of dropbacks)

Running Back Rotations

• Baltimore Ravens: It appears that a three-headed committee is forming in Baltimore as Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and LeVeon Bell all played at least 30% of the team's snaps. Notably, TySon Williams was once again a healthy scratch. Perhaps the Ravens are keeping him on ice for the trade market.
• Cleveland Browns: Kareem Hunt went down with a multi-week calf injury in the fourth quarter of Cleveland's blowout loss to Arizona. With Nick Chubb already on the shelf, the team will turn to DErnest Johnson to carry the load on the ground. Demetric Felton, an RB/WR hybrid has hardly lined up in the backfield but could manage the Kareem Hunt role in this offense while Hunt misses time.
• Detroit Lions: In a blowout loss, the training wheels were removed for DAndre Swift who posted season highs in RMS (72%) and snaps (78%), working clearly in front of Jamaal Williams. It appears that Swift is now fully recovered from his lingering groin issue.
• Indianapolis Colts: Don't look now but Jonathan Taylor's role is growing in Indianapolis as he logged a season-high 65% snap rate. Despite an insistence on using Marlon Mack now that trade talks have cooled down, Nyheim Hines has seen a reduced role, particularly in the passing game. Taylor has now run twice as many routes as Hines over the last two weeks.
• Kansas City Chiefs: No Clyde Edwards-Helaire? No problem. Darrel Williams inherited the lion's share of the work in the Kansas City backfield (72% snaps) ahead of lieutenant Jerick McKinnon (28% snaps). For as long as Edwards-Helaire misses time, Williams looks cemented as the primary back with McKinnon mixing in on obvious passing downs.
• Miami Dolphins: What a cluster. There seems to be no rhyme or reason for how the Dolphins are deploying running backs by week. Neither Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, nor Salvon Ahmed topped 40% of the snaps, RMS, or routes run in week 6. Gaskin is clearly the superior talent and the one most likely to see targets in this backfield but there is no way you can play either of these players confidently.
• Seattle Seahawks: Alex Collins has played beautifully in relief of Chris Carson but even his availability looks questionable for Week 7. With the team possibly getting Rashaad Penny back from injured reserve, there could be a battle for playing time brewing in Seattle. DeeJay Dallas was the most immediate beneficiary behind Collins and garnered a generous 16% TMS in Week 6. Travis Homer looks like an afterthought for now.
• Washington Football Team: Antonio Gibson (39% snaps) missed a lot of time in Week 6 battling injuries stemming from his fractured shin. J.D. McKissic played a season-high 61% of the snaps while Jaret Patterson was uninvolved (3% snaps). If Gibson misses time, the team will likely feature McKissic while using Patterson to soak up some low-value carries.

Receiving Rotations

• Baltimore Ravens: A Week 5 injury to Sammy Watkins plus a Week 6 activation of Rashod Bateman created a new look in the Baltimore passing game. The highly touted rookie Bateman immediately stepped into a starting role opposite Marquise Brown, logging 67% routes run and a team high 22% TMS. You couldn't ask for more from Bateman and it's hard to imagine he gives this job back any time soon.
• Houston Texans: Another player who returned from injured reserve, Nico Collins walked into a starting wide receiver job as well, running a route on 65% of Davis Mills dropbacks. Collins, Chris Moore, and of course Brandin Cooks appear to be the new three-wide set, pushing down Chris Conley to the WR4 role.
• Indianapolis Colts: The return of T.Y. Hilton was opportune as the Colts will now need him to replace Parris Campbell who appeared to suffer a significant injury in Week 6. Hilton missed some time as well, however, expect his playing time to escalate after leading the team in targets in his first week back. Hilton, Michael Pittman, and Zach Pascal will form the new three-wide set as Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle alternate tight end duties.
• Los Angeles Chargers: The ever-explosive Mike Williams has always played the game like a madman, laying his body on the line like no other receiver I recall. Unfortunately, the injuries are piling up and he is in danger of missing time. Should Williams miss, rookie Josh Palmer looks like the next man up. With Williams only able to play 36% of snaps in Week 6, Palmer played a career-high 52%, running a route on 55% of Justin Herbert dropbacks.
• Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are falling apart. Once again playing without DeVante Parker, the team was also missing Will Fuller (IR) and Preston Williams. Jaylen Waddle and Mack Hollins formed the two-wide set and the team heavily featured a two-tight end set including Mike Gesicki (71% RR) and Durham Smythe (63% RR).
• New England Patriots: What do you know - the Patriots remembered that they paid for the two biggest tight ends available in free agency this off-season! Hunter Henry saw a massive increase in his involvement in Week 6 with a season-high 83% RR. On top of that, glorified right tackle Jonnu Smith played even more snaps (72%) than Henry. Look for the Patriots' tight ends to get more involved in the passing game.
• New York Giants: Another week - another big injury for the Giants receivers as electric rookie Kadarius Toney aggravated his ankle injury. In Toney's absence, Sterling Shepard gobbled up 29% of the team's targets while Dante Pettis, Collin Johnson, and John Ross formed a committee. Toney, Kenny Golladay, and Darius Slayton will have roles waiting for them when they return.
• Philadelphia Eagles: In Zach Ertz's swan song in Philadelphia, he delivered a vintage performance including a 25% TMS while playing 88% of the team's snaps while Dallas Goedert missed the week in the COVID protocol. Now that Ertz has been shipped to Arizona for a title run, Dallas Goedert will inherit a healthy-sized feature tight end role. With little behind Goedert, he should be a full-time fixture in the offense and the team will likely use more three-wide sets featuring Quez Watkins.
• Pittsburgh Steelers: James Washington was the presumptive WR4 in Pittsburgh before JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a season-ending injury. However, Ray-Ray McCloud was the next man up for the Steelers in Week 6, playing 69% of the snap (83% RR) compared to a meager 11% snap rate for Washington. As it turns out, McCloud is Smith-Schuster's direct backup in the slot. However, the absence of Smith-Schuster led to more work from the Steeler tight ends, including rookie Pat Freiermuth who saw a career-high 18% TMS.
• Tennessee Titans: In Monday Night Football's dramatic win over Buffalo, the Titans may have lost Julio Jones again to a hamstring injury. Jones was locked in on the outside with A.J. Brown for most of the game but eventually left the game, creating an opportunity for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (who missed Week 5 due to a late injury). Westbrook-Ikhine played ahead of Marcus Johnson (59% RR vs 34%). Look for a rotation of bodies led by Westbrook-Ikhine in the coming weeks if Jones misses time.

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