articles

Unexpected Observations from Week 3

Justin Freeman's Unexpected Observations from Week 3
By Justin Freeman, September 28, 2021

Unexpected Observations from Week 3
Photo: Imagn Images

With week three in the books, depth charts are solidifying around the league. There are still some fragile roles, some injury opportunities, and some young talent who continue to grow. But overall, today will be more of a depth chart status update here in Unexpected Observations.

Routes run and dropback data in this article is from Pro Football Focus. I prefer to focus on the percentage of routes run which is simply a player's routes divided by the team's total dropbacks. Terms: RMS = Rushing Market Share, TMS = Target Market Share, RR% = Routes Run percentage (of dropbacks)

Arizona Cardinals

  • In a game where DeAndre Hopkins was clearly not 100 percent, he still rarely came off the field (97% RR).
  • Rondale Moore (34% snaps, 38% RR) is still clearly the WR4 in this offense.
  • Despite a two-touchdown day for James Conner, he still split carriers down the middle with Chase Edmonds for the second straight week.
  • In fact, Conner's snap rate has decreased back-to-back weeks while Edmonds has increased in that same timeframe.

Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore Ravens

  • The big story for Baltimore is that Latavius Murray took over as the leading rusher ahead of TySon Williams (41% to 29%) all while Devonta Freeman mixed in for 18% RMS.
  • Also, Marquise Brown had three brutal touchdown drops in this game but is still averaging a 30% TMS on the season.
  • Week 4 will be the first week that rookie Rashod Bateman and veteran Miles Boykin are eligible to return from IR which could throw limit the ceiling of Brown.

Buffalo Bills

  • After starting the season inactive in Week 1, Zack Moss has emerged as a viable red-zone weapon for the Bills and saw over half (56%) the snaps in Week 3.
  • This game turned into a romp, but Emmanuel Sanders continues to have very encouraging usage as the Bills have adopted a very clear three-wide set of Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley.

Carolina Panthers

Chicago Bears

  • In Justin Fields' first start of the year, the Bears showed little desire to get him outside the pocket, leading to an underwhelming 17% RMS.
  • David Montgomery missed a couple of drives in week one nursing a hand injury in-game. Ever since, he has made Damien Williams a non-factor (23% and 16% snaps last two weeks).
  • Damiere Byrd has run away with the WR3 job ahead of Marquise Goodwin.

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

  • The pendulum swung back to Nick Chubb on the ground as he out-rushed Kareem Hunt 58% to 26%. Chubb, however, was not targeted.
  • Jarvis Landry OUT - Odell Beckham IN. Beckham picked right up where Landry left off, commanding 32% of team targets on 85% RR.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Ezekiel Elliott got his groove back in a two-touchdown performance, but the workload split was still pretty stable between him and Tony Pollard.
  • Amari Cooper did not have many limitations from his rib injury, running 100% of routes.
  • The team utilized more two-tight-end sets with Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin which limited the upside of Cedrick Wilson as the de facto WR3.

Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions

  • The ridiculous passing game role for DAndre Swift continues as he soaks up 25% TMS in an offense deprived of talented pass-catchers.
  • Darren Fells saw a big bump in routes as Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus operated as the base two-wide set.

Green Bay Packers

  • Aaron Jones continues to command a big lead over A.J. Dillon in this backfield despite some initial steam from Dillon in Week 1.
  • Davante Adams commanded an insane 58% TMS which of course did not leave much for anyone else.

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • James Robinson is back? Despite Carlos Hyde continuing to be highly involved (34% snaps, 31% RMS), Robinson flashed and soaked up 20% TMS.
  • Marvin Jones continues to be the WR1 in this offense, averaging an enviable 26% TMS through three weeks.

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Mike Williams is here to stay. Through three weeks, Williams (26% TMS) and Keenan Allen (27% TMS) are dominating targets.
  • Larry Rountree relieved Austin Ekeler at the goal line, soaking up some high-value touches from Ekeler.

Los Angels Rams

  • Cooper Kupp stays hotter than fish grease posting a season-low 32% TMS.
  • DeSean Jackson got loose multiple times in Week 3 and posted a season-high 41% RR.
  • In the absence of Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel (83% RMS) handled all but one of the team's running back rushes.

Miami Dolphins

  • Will Fuller returned for Miami, playing 61% of snaps in his debut.
  • Jaylen Waddle (30% TMS) and Mike Gesicki (28% TMS) dominated targets.
  • Myles Gaskin posted a season-high in RMS with 62% of the team's carries. Salvon Ahmed did not log a rush attempt.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Without Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison ran roughshod through the Seahawks with 76% RMS and 19% TMS - pretty much a normal Cook workload.
  • Tyler Conklin has seen his target share grown in back-to-back games.
  • Justin Jefferson has topped 30% TMS twice this year as he continues his ascent as an elite wide receiver.

New England Patriots

  • Unfortunately, James White went down in this game as the Patriots were upended by the Saints. This led to a big role for Brandon Bolden (46% snaps, 36% RR) ahead of J.J. Taylor.
  • Jakobi Meyers led the team in targets for the third straight week. It's time we start thinking of him as a viable option.
  • Hunter Henry has far better routes run data than Jonnu Smith, yet Henry has yet to out-target Smith.

New Orleans Saints

New York Giants

New York Jets

Philadelphia Eagles

  • On Monday night against Dallas, Zach Ertz showed glimpses of his old self, handling 17% TMS.
  • Jalen Hurts looked out of sorts but still cobbled together a decent fantasy day on the back of a 40% RMS effort.

Pittsburgh Steelers

San Francisco 49ers

  • Brandon Aiyuk returned to a full-time role (89% RR) but was still dwarfed by Deebo Samuel 27% to 16% in the targets department.
  • Mohamed Sanu saw a huge bump in usage, working as the WR3 and seeing 80% RR.
  • The real starting running back without Elijah Mitchell was... Kyle Juszczyk? He handled 69% of snaps and 11% TMS while Trey Sermon doubled him up in carries (48% to 24% RMS).
  • Trey Lance continues to be used in high leverage scenarios by the redzone.

Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • The Bucs got down big to the Rams in week 3, which opened up a featured role for Giovani Bernard who led the backfield in snaps, targets, and routes. Bernard's usage was largely game-script based.
  • Rob Gronkowski did NOT have two touchdowns - what?!
  • Without Antonio Brown (COVID protocol), Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson split work evenly. However, Miller appears to have also suffered an injury.

Tennessee Titans

  • In a game where A.J. Brown injured his hamstring, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine got the boost, leading the skill players in snaps, routes, and targets.
  • Julio Jones was mysteriously "load managed" down the stretch as he played on 50% of snaps.

Washington Football Team

  • This game got ugly for Washington but Antonio Gibson salvaged his day with a huge screen reception for a touchdown.
  • Logan Thomas' peripherals - alarmingly consistent - finally paid off.
  • Curtis Samuel is eligible to return from IR in Week 4 which could help bolster this wide receiver depth chart and stretch the field horizontally.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Analysis Davante Adams Salvon Ahmed Brandon Aiyuk Keenan Allen Robbie Chosen Dan Arnold Peyton Barber Saquon Barkley Rashod Bateman Cole Beasley Odell Beckham Jr Giovani Bernard Brandon Bolden Tyler Boyd Miles Boykin A.J. Brown Antonio Brown Marquise Brown Damiere Byrd Marquez Callaway Parris Campbell Chris Carson Michael Carter Michael Carter II Quintez Cephus Ja'Marr Chase Nick Chubb Chase Claypool Tevin Coleman Alex Collins Tyler Conklin Chris Conley James Conner Brandin Cooks Dalvin Cook Amari Cooper Jamison Crowder Sam Darnold Corey Davis Mike Davis Stefon Diggs AJ Dillon Jack Doyle Chase Edmonds Bryan Edwards Clyde Edwards-Helaire Austin Ekeler Ezekiel Elliott Evan Engram Zach Ertz Darren Fells Justin Fields Devonta Freeman Royce Freeman Will Fuller V Russell Gage Myles Gaskin Mike Gesicki Antonio Gibson Marquise Goodwin Melvin Gordon III Rob Gronkowski KJ Hamler Mecole Hardman Jr. Najee Harris Darrell Henderson Jr. Hunter Henry Tee Higgins Tyreek Hill Nyheim Hines Travis Homer DeAndre Hopkins Chuba Hubbard Kareem Hunt Jalen Hurts Carlos Hyde DeSean Jackson Josh Jacobs Blake Jarwin Justin Jefferson Jerry Jeudy Collin Johnson Diontae Johnson Tyler Johnson Aaron Jones Julio Jones Marvin Jones Jr Tony Jones Jr. Kyle Juszczyk Alvin Kamara Cooper Kupp Trey Lance Jarvis Landry Tyler Lockett Alexander Mattison Christian McCaffrey DK Metcalf Jakobi Meyers Sony Michel Anthony Miller Davis Mills Elijah Mitchell David Montgomery Rondale Moore Zack Moss Latavius Murray Tim Patrick Cordarrelle Patterson Kyle Pitts Tony Pollard Byron Pringle Kalif Raymond Demarcus Robinson James Robinson Larry Rountree III Curtis Samuel Deebo Samuel Emmanuel Sanders Mohamed Sanu Dalton Schultz Trey Sermon Sterling Shepard Darius Slayton Jonnu Smith JuJu Smith-Schuster Tre'Quan Smith Diontae Spencer Kenny Stills Courtland Sutton Freddie Swain D'Andre Swift Auden Tate J.J. Taylor Jonathan Taylor Logan Thomas Michael Thomas Mike Thomas Kadarius Toney Tommy Tremble Jaylen Waddle James Washington Nick Westbrook-Ikhine James White Darrel Williams Damien Williams Javonte Williams Mike Williams Ty'Son Williams Cedrick Wilson Jr. Olamide Zaccheaus

More by Justin Freeman

Unexpected Observations from Week 15

Justin Freeman, Dec 20, 2022

Unexpected Observations from Week 14

Justin Freeman, Dec 13, 2022

Unexpected Observations from Week 13

Justin Freeman, Dec 7, 2022

Unexpected Observations from Week 12

Justin Freeman, Nov 30, 2022

Unexpected Observations from Week 11

Justin Freeman, Nov 22, 2022

Unexpected Observations from Week 10

Justin Freeman, Nov 15, 2022

Most Recent

Dynasty Trading Post: Lost-Season Veterans Game Predictor: Week 12 The Gut Check No. 639: Can You Count on Caleb Williams? Random Shots From Week 11 High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Week 12 IDP Stock Market: Week 12 IDP Streaming Matchups for Edge and IDL: Week 12 DFS First Look: Week 12 IDP Matchup Plays: Living the Stream: Week 12