#Trendspotting: Week 7

Photo: Imagn Images

READER'S GUIDE

Some key items are below:

• All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Pass Funnels

Be sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up-to-date regarding updates to all articles I write here at FootballGuys. Feel free to reach out at any time with questions, comments, and concerns about this article or anything else fantasy football-related.

Tweets of the Week

Darrell Henderson (Week 6)

- 21 of 30 carries
- 3 of 3 targets
- 5 of 5 i10 snaps
- 54 of 66 snaps (82%)

Conclusion: still a bell cow https://t.co/GESMEqeZwi

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 17, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Despite comments made by Sean McVay after the side's Week 5 game, Darrell Henderson remains a bell-cow running back in the Los Angeles Rams' backfield. McVay stated his preference for a split backfield between Henderson and Sony Michel after the team's Thursday Night Football win over the Seattle Seahawks, where Henderson played about 65-percent of the Rams' offensive snaps. However, this split was largely dictated by a mid-game injury that Henderson quickly healed from, and, when healthy, he was still the bell-cow in that outing.
• As Scott Barrett noted, the Rams dominated the New York Giants last weekend, and Darrell Henderson was every bit of the bell-cow running back that fantasy managers had seen whenever he suited up earlier in the year. This weekend, the Rams play host to the Detroit Lions as heavy favorites, making Henderson an elite RB1 candidate once again thanks to his prominent role in this high-octane offense that will likely be playing with a lead for the majority of the game.

He leads the NFL in 4Q receptions with 19. 47.2% of all his PPR points have been scored in the 4th quarter.

The good news is Detroit has trailed for 100% of their offensive snaps in the 2nd half so far.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 19, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Hand-in-hand with the Darrell Henderson love this weekend, which is partially due to the favorable expected game script, DAndre Swift could thrive in this same game for the opposite reasons. As Rich Hribar and Josh Norris pointed out on Twitter earlier this week, Swift's receiving production is heavily concentrated in the fourth quarter of games. The Detroit Lions enter this weekend's clash with the Los Angeles Rams as 15-point underdogs, which should, once again, foster a pass-heavy second-half game script for the underdogs. DAndre Swift thrives in garbage time when quarterback Jared Goff looks to safely move the ball down the field by dumping it off to his number-one running back. This weekend, consider pairing DAndre Swift and Darrell Henderson in DFS GPP lineups, as this running back stack may be a contrarian option with correlated upside.

Jonathan Taylor's routes per dropback rate the last four weeks...
*Week 3: 26%
*Week 4: 35%
*Week 5: 42%
*Week 6: 61%

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) October 19, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Jonathan Taylor's involvement in the passing game is gradually increasing every week, and his fantasy value is climbing despite his moderate snap count numbers. Across his last three weeks, Taylor has averaged three targets-per-game, a mark 15-percent higher than his season average during his rookie year. Additionally, Taylor has posted over 30 DraftKings points per game throughout this stretch. Although there is some touchdown variance baked into Taylor's fantasy production in recent weeks, had he not found the endzone once throughout this sample of games, he would have still averaged over 20 DraftKings points per game. This week, Taylor and the Colts play on Sunday Night Football, so he is an elite DFS option on the primetime slate of games in the short term. In the long term, buying high on Jonathan Taylor is worth considering in season-long formats, given his increased role in the passing game and the potential for increased playing time overall if the Colts trade away Marlon Mack, as he recently requested.

Noah Fant yesterday with Albert O (hamstring) out again yesterday.

* 58-of-60 snaps
* 16 slot or wide
* 38 routes on 43 Teddy dropbacks
* 11 targets for a 22.4% share
* 9-97-1 result

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 18, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• A few weeks ago, the Denver Broncos receiving corps was listed in #Trendspotting as one of the most banged-up units in the entire NFL. Since then, the injuries have not slowed down, with tight end Albert Okwuegbunam landing on the Injured Reserve due to a hamstring injury. Since Okwuegbunam got hurt, Noah Fant has unsurprisingly assumed an even larger role in Denver's passing attack. Expect Noah Fant to be a key contributor to Denver's offense once again on Thursday night when the Broncos head to Cleveland to take on the depleted Browns. Overall, expect Fant to turn in a TE1 performance in season-long leagues, making him a near must-start player if he is on your roster. Additionally, the majority of Thursday Night Football showdown lineups should be built around Noah Fant, in either the captain or flex position, as his upside in Denver's thinning passing attack continues to rise.

Not eye-popping numbers for Rashod Bateman in his debut (4-29-0), but he was targeted on 27.2% of routes run, and all four catches were first downs

— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) October 18, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Rashod Bateman, Baltimore's first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, made his NFL debut last weekend after missing the season's early weeks with a hamstring injury. Bateman joins a developing receiving corps that features a pair of breakout players in Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Bateman's inclusion in this unit could decrease each of Brown's and Andrews's fantasy value marginally, as he may eat into each player's respective target share. However, the attention that Bateman will draw on the outside as one of the league's most exciting young receivers should open up the field for Andrews and Brown to thrive from an efficiency standpoint. Expect Bateman to be a respectable producer within Baltimore's offense, as we saw last week when he was targeted on over one-quarter of his routes, while Andrews and Brown remain startable players at their respective positions as well.
• The primary beneficiary of Rashod Bateman's inclusion in this offense is Lamar Jackson. Jackson's passing production this season has been impressive, with career-high marks in yards-per-attempt and completion-percentage thus far. The only game Jackson did not surpass 235 passing yards this season was in last weekend's 34-6 victory over the Chargers, where the Ravens deployed an exceptionally run-heavy attack in their dominant victory. Jackson has torched defenses through the air with just two plus-receivers at his disposal. Now, with a third high-ceiling pass-catcher making his way onto the field, Jackson will have no shortage of reliable and explosive weapons at his disposal at all times. Consider building DFS lineups around Lamar Jackson at quarterback for just $7,400 this weekend on DraftKings. If DraftKings does not substantially increase Jackson's price in the coming weeks to a number above or near $8,000, he will be one of the most popular and most productive players each week from a point-per-dollar standpoint. Additionally, given the newfound depth in Baltimore's receiving corps, the Ravens make for a much more intriguing team to stack in GPPs.

Pass Funnels

Here, funnel defenses are defined as defenses that simultaneously rank in the top third of the NFL against either the run or the pass and in the bottom-third of the NFL against the other.

Looking solely at pass funnel defenses this week, we will identify which teams fantasy managers should target with quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends in soft matchups during the coming weeks.

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 5th in yards per carry allowed | 32nd in net yards per attempt allowed
• Washington Football Team: 9th in yards per carry allowed | 26th in net yards per attempt allowed
• Indianapolis Colts: 10th in yards per carry allowed | 27th in net yards per attempt allowed

Commentary and Action Items:

• The Jacksonville Jaguars are on a bye in Week 7, but their defensive showing in London last weekend left much to be desired. Tua Tagovailoa has not had a very strong NFL career thus far, but even he lit up the Jaguars' defense to the tune of 392 yards and 2 scores through the air last weekend. Looking ahead, the Jags have the Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, and Indianapolis Colts on the schedule for their next three games. Consider making forward-thinking moves to acquire players from these three passing attacks to exploit Jacksonville's horrid defense.
• This week, the Washington Football Team will head up to Green Bay to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Since Week 2, Rodgers has posted a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while Davante Adams has scored at least 23.1 DraftKings points in 3 out of 5 games. This pair is the unquestioned number-one quarterback-wide receiver stack on the Week 7 main slate of games. They can be complemented by a positively correlated piece from Washington's passing attack like the underpriced Ricky Seals-Jones, who is still only $3,700 on DraftKings despite playing 99% and 100% of Washington's offensive snaps in the last two weeks, respectively.
• The Indianapolis Colts will head out west to take on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football this weekend. The Colts' pass funnel defense should make life a bit easier on Jimmy Garoppolo, who is expected to return from injury and start at quarterback for the 49ers in Week 7. However, Garoppolo will be without George Kittle, who landed on the Injured Reserve a few weeks ago. Instead, look for Brandon Aiyuk and Ross Dwelley to emerge as the top secondary receiving options in this offense behind Deebo Samuel. Dwelley should make for an interested tight end streamer candidate this weekend in season-long formats and a contrarian option on the primetime slate of games as well. Aiyuk, on the other hand, is worth considering as a starter at flex in season-long formats, while Deebo Samuel is a no-brainer starting option at wide receiver against Indianapolis's struggling secondary.