#Trendspotting: Week 3

Photo: Imagn Images

READER'S GUIDE

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Newcomer Analysis

With just two weeks of data at our disposal for this season, please exercise caution. At this point in the season, the trends identified below are mostly trends to keep an eye on and monitor for a short while before acting on them a few weeks down the line when the signal begins to separate from the noise.

Best of luck and as always feel free to reach out to me here on Twitter with any comments regarding this article or questions regarding anything related to fantasy football

Tweets of the Week

Lowest pressure rates

Matthew Stafford: 20.3%
Tom Brady: 21.1%
Baker Mayfield: 21.3%
Ben Roethlisberger: 23.4%

— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) September 22, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Unsurprisingly, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, and Baker Mayfield rank amongst the league's least-pressured quarterbacks across the first two games of the season. According to Matt Bitonti, FootballGuys' top-class offensive line analyst, each quarterback plays behind a top-11 offensive line in the NFL. Passing from a clean pocket is a recipe for success for any NFL quarterback, and if these offensive lines can stay healthy, it is all-systems-go for the Rams, Buccaneers, and Browns offenses, specifically through the air, this season.
• The one name that jumps off the page in Kevin Cole's original tweet is Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger plays behind the league's worst offensive line, according to Matt Bitonti. However, he has not been pressured very often at all this season. The lack of pressure is somewhat worrying, in context, because Roethlisberger already struggles with durability issues. Now, entering Week 3, his status is in doubt due to a pectoral injury he sustained last weekend against the Raiders. If Roethlisberger is already hurt after 2 games in which he has largely thrown from a clean pocket, this could signal massive issues down the line once the offensive line play regresses to its true talent level. Keep an eye on the Pittsburgh passing attack, as the passing efficiency is likely to suffer long-term if they cannot maintain their stellar play in the trenches.

% of team Receptions for WR sans MNF:

Kupp 41.0%
Deebo 37.5%
Shepard 36.4%
Cooks 35.9%
Hollywood 32.4%
McLaurin 31.3%
Diontae 31.1%
Berrios 30.8%
DJ Moore 28.0%

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 20, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Here, Rich Hribar notes what wide receivers stand out over other pass-catchers on their respective teams through two games this season. This is a situation where I want to emphasize the caution we must exercise early in the season before jumping to conclusions regarding what we expect for the next 16 weeks of the regular season.
  • There is a strong case against almost every wide receiver listed sustaining this level of reception-share dominance over his teammates, perhaps with the exception of two or three players. Let's peel back the layers of each wide receiver's profile and situation to analyze their viability as a breakout top-tier wide receiver this season.
    • Cooper Kupp: the Rams have an abundance of talented pass-catchers that they have invested significant resources in. Most notably, returners Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson, and newcomers DeSean Jackson and Tutu Atwell. Cooper Kupp is an elite fantasy asset this season, but regression is on the horizon, and he is unlikely to remain atop fantasy production charts throughout the season.
    • Deebo Samuel: the eventual inclusion of Brandon Aiyuk and reintroduction of George Kittle into San Francisco's offense will eat into Samuel's gaudy reception share mark. Pump the brakes on Deebo Samuel as a potential WR1 this year.
    • Sterling Shepard: as noted last week, Shepard will be an early-season stud. However, the return of Evan Engram, Kenny Golladay's chemistry and comfortability in his role increasing, and the growing role of Saquon Barkley as he nears full-strength all stand in the way of an elite fantasy season for Shepard.
    • Brandin Cooks: the only thing standing between Cooks and an impressive fantasy season is quarterback play. There is very little competition for targets in Houston's offense, but the downgrade from Tyrod Taylor, who injured his hamstring last week, to Davis Mills, a mid-round rookie from Stanford, is substantial. Cooks has the best chance of maintaining a notably high reception share of any receiver on this list.
    • Marquise Brown: Brown was one of my favorite buy-low receivers all year last year. Eventually, around Week 12, Hollywood Brown finally started to convert his elite opportunity in the Baltimore passing attack into production. The third-year player from Oklahoma picked up right where he left off this season, but the eventual inclusion of first-round rookie Rashod Bateman will likely prevent Brown from remaining on this list as the season wears on.
    • Terry McLaurin: fortunately for fantasy managers, McLaurin is quarterback-proof. No matter who lines up under center for the Washington Football Team, McLaurin puts up numbers. Going from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Taylor Heinicke should have very little impact on McLaurin's numbers this year. It is worth noting that Washington went out and signed Curtis Samuel away from the Carolina Panthers this offseason. Samuel is currently sidelined with an injury, but when he eventually makes his way onto the field, he may damage McLaurin's fantasy production a bit. Overall, Terry McLaurin is a candidate to remain on this list throughout the season. He is head-and-shoulders above the rest of Washington's receiving options, and Samuel may struggle with a lack of chemistry and familiarity with his role in his new team's offense.
    • Braxton Berrios: Berrios making an appearance on this list is one of the most perplexing hidden storylines of the first two weeks of this young season. Berrios has yet to play 60-percent of offensive snaps in either of the Jets' first two games. However, he is being peppered with targets when he is on the field. Expect his numbers to regress significantly throughout the season as Corey Davis asserts himself as the alpha in the Jets' receiving room, and Elijah Moore, a rookie, earns increased playing time in the slot, where Berrios plays the majority of the time.
    • D.J. Moore: Moore has a great opportunity to be a league-winning player this season. Last year, D.J. Moore was already a top-end fantasy producer, scoring nearly 15 DraftKings points per game. This year, without Curtis Samuel in the fold, Moore stands out as the team's obvious number-one receiver. Christian McCaffrey will always play a role in the team's passing attack, and Robbie Anderson will almost certainly average more than 4.5 targets per game when all is said and done this year. However, even with those two players, and rookie Terrace Marshall, who has yet to make a significant impact in the team's offense, D.J. Moore is primed for a massive 2021 season in Joe Brady's offense. This year, expect big things from D.J. Moore as he is the clear-cut number-one receiver in Carolina's increasingly dangerous passing attack.

Newcomer Analysis

Rookie Wide Receivers

Weekly progression of routes run as % of team dropbacks by draft position

Chase: 94% -> 91%
Waddle: 93% -> 79%
Smith: 95% -> 87%
Toney: 9% -> 26%
E.Moore: 84% -> 80%
R.Moore: 39% -> 59%
Eskridge: 11% -> NA
Atwell: 0% -> 0%
Marshall: 64% -> 59%
Palmer: 16% -> 29%
cont'

— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) September 20, 2021

Note: Kyle Pitts Week 1 routes run as % of team dropbacks: 80% -> Week 2 routes run as % of team drobacks: 83%

Commentary and Action Items:

• For rookies, there weren't many significant changes in route percentages from Week 1 to Week 2 at wide receiver. However, a few of the minor changes are certainly worth noting and keeping an eye on.
• Kadarius Toney ran a route on just 9-percent of the team's total dropbacks in Week 1, and then he nearly tripled that mark running a route on about 26-percent of the Giants' dropbacks in Week 2. 26-percent remains an unimpressive mark, but it is worth noting that Toney was a first-round pick this year, and he missed out on most of training camp. Toney was unable to practice with the Giants for most of the preseason due to an injury, followed by a positive COVID test. Without getting the necessary preseason reps within his new offense, the odds were stacked against Toney as an early-season producer. However, as the season progresses, Kadarius Toney is a player whose role is likely to increase as he gets critical practice reps for Joe Judge and the rest of the Giants' coaching staff to fully determine where he slots into the team's attack.
• Rondale Moore ran a route on nearly 60-percent of Arizona's dropbacks in Week 2 against Minnesota after he ran a route on just under 40-percent of the team's dropbacks in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. Moore is electric with the ball in his hands, as shown by his team-leading 14.3 yards-after-the-catch per reception. The rookie from Purdue is an obvious talent that will be impossible for Kliff Kingsbury to ignore. Especially when Moore is making veteran plays, like fighting for extra yards after the catch to get the team into field goal range before getting out of bounds with one second left on the game clock ahead of halftime. Expect Rondale Moore's role to continue to grow. As Moore earns snaps in Arizona's pass-heavy offense, he is one of the most intriguing early-season, high-upside acquisitions to target.

Rookie Running Backs

• Najee Harris
  • Week 1: 100% snaps, 16 carries, 3 targets
  • Week 2: 95% snaps, 10 carries, 5 targets
• Javonte Williams
  • Week 1: 50% snaps, 14 carries, 1 target
  • Week 2: 41% snaps, 13 carries, 1 target
• Michael Carter
  • Week 1: 25% snaps, 4 carries, 2 targets
  • Week 2: 45% snaps, 11 carries, 3 targets
• Elijah Mitchell
  • Week 1: 64% snaps, 19 carries, 0 targets
  • Week 2: 61% snaps, 17 carries, 2 targets

Commentary and Action Items:

• Despite his mediocre fantasy production through two weeks, Najee Harris's playing time and usage both signal that Pittsburgh's rookie running back will be a valuable fantasy asset down the line. Harris plays a significant role in both the team's rushing and passing attacks, and this well-rounded role could be his saving grace this year if his efficiency metrics don't tick up. Do not sound any alarms surrounding Najee Harris's fantasy viability just yet, because the youngster is due to erupt any week.
• A timeshare in the Denver Broncos' backfield was to be expected early in the year, with both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams seeing significant action. As the season wears on, Williams will likely win out and shoulder the majority of the work for Denver on the ground. Last season, at North Carolina, Williams graded as Pro Football Focus's most talented pure runner in the country, and his top-tier marks rivaled those of the best running backs they have ever graded. In season-long formats, consider inquiring into the availability of Javonte Williams, whose growing role could end up winning leagues.
• Michael Carter saw a significant increase in playing time for the New York Jets in Week 2. Carter is competing with NFL journeymen Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson for carries, and the rushing talent difference between the three is obvious on tape. Carter's anticipation and attention to detail with the ball in his hands far outpaces either Coleman or Johnson. While a bell-cow role is unlikely for Michael Carter, another rookie running back from North Carolina, it will not surprise those paying close attention to this position group if he earns the majority of work on the ground for the Jets. Consider stashing Michael Carter away on the bench of season-long teams, where he may have a significant impact later in the season.
• Elijah Mitchell remains the number-one choice for Kyle Shannahan on the ground in San Francisco. In Week 1, Mitchell stepped into the starting lineup after Raheem Mostert went down with an injury. Then, in Week 2, when Trey Sermon made his NFL debut, Sermon went down with a concussion on his only snap of the game. Overall, there is very little competition for snaps in this backfield right now, aside from JaMycal Hasty. In a handful of outings last season, Hasty was called upon to help shoulder the load on the ground for the 49ers, but he played more than 26-percent of the team's offensive snaps just once, and he never played more than 41-percent of offensive snaps in any game. Elijah Mitchell should have a stable role, with 20-carry upside, in San Francisco's offense for the foreseeable future.