MISSION
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.
I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 2'S CLIFF'S NOTES
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.
- Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense made adjustments after numerous late-August injuries and an awful performance against the Raiders to beat the Chiefs in a thriller and regain the confidence of fantasy GMs. Ty'Son Williams remains a hold for your teams.
- Julio Jones put Week 1's debacle behind him with an inspired performance against the Seattle Seahawks and we can thank Mike Vrabel for setting firm boundaries that helped this team rebound. Jones remains a top option as long as he can remain on the field. All signs were positive that he will.
- Cooper Kupp has the best connection with Matt Stafford of the Rams receivers and Van Jefferson remains a player to watch, but don't dump Robert Woods.
- Cordarrelle Patterson had a performance against the Buccaneers that put the fantasy world on notice. I show why Patterson produced and whether it will continue for him in Atlanta.
- Last week, I said not to sleep on Bryan Edwards. Las Vegas' second-year receiver had the stat-line equivalent of a 40-degree day, but there were mitigating factors beyond the box score that point to an emerging option worth a roster spot in most leagues. On the other hand, Derek Carr is an emerging fantasy force this year.
- Young Runner Roundup: Antonio Gibson and Najee Harris are excellent talents with weekly fantasy value but their upsides were largely overstated for 2021.
- IDP Alert: Grant Delpit was my pick as the best player in the 2020 NFL Draft. His pro debut against the Texans delivered several examples as to why Delpit can still make good on that promise.
- Terry McLauren is an exceptional player — and it includes hands techniques that rarely lead to NFL success. Consider this a tip when researching rookie prospects for future drafts.
- I tried to pound it into your head to stack Tampa Bay's passing game, not just because of Tom Brady's potential for a record year, but so you didn't have to play roulette with the receiving corps.
- Jimmy Garoppolo headlines Week 2's Fresh Fish with his skittish behavior under pressure that he's unlikely to ever grow past.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
- Atlanta's offensive line.
- Atlanta's linebackers and safeties.
- Colts' goal-line offense in the first quarter.
- Carson Wentz is all heart and that's not a good thing.
For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.
1. The Ravens' offense and its narrow but successful u-Turn from Disaster
I had legit concerns about Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense after their loss to the Raiders on Monday Night Football — and I mean legitimate. The offensive line couldn't earn a push in the run game. Penetration sidetracked most of the running back's attempts.
The scariest thing about the Ravens' ground game was the absence of the usual volume of quarterback read plays due to the lack of rapport that Lamar Jackson had with his new running back depth chart. These read plays routinely earned Jackson gains of 8-10 yards untouched to the boundary between 2018-2020. Not only did it create favorable down and distance situations that kept most of the offensive playbook viable, but it also set up difficult-to-defend run game variations that opened up lanes for the Ravens' running backs. Best of all, Jackson earned chunk plays with his legs without taking punishment.
Without these read plays against the Raiders, the offense was constricted and predictable and the ignorant narrative that Lamar Jackson would be figured out would earn traction for the wrong reasons. But credit the Ravens for making the necessary adjustments to bring the read game back to the field in Week 2 and execute it as if J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards were still healthy.
Not only did Jackson and his new backs develop a quick rapport with the read game, but the Ravens also switched Alejandro Villanueva back to left tackle — the position he played as a stalwart of the Pittsburgh Steelers' line. Villanueva had an awful debut at right tackle, which illustrates what most linemen will tell you about the difficulty of playing on the opposite side of the field than they are accustomed to.
Although the Chiefs lack a great defense, it still has capable players in the box with Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Nick Bolton, as well as a promising secondary that can tackle. If Baltimore performed as it did Week 1, the Cheifs' defense was capable of exploiting the Ravens' flaws.
Instead, the Ravens' were nearly flawless with their run game execution. They routinely used the read game to force the Chiefs to guess whether Lamar Jackson was following two pulling linemen to one side or his backs were earning a 3-on-2 or 4-on-3 advantage in the open space on the backside of the pullers.
#RavensFlock get a 3-on-2 advantage with misdirection. The TE and FB as part of that but the threat of two pullers leading Lamar must be respected pic.twitter.com/TKEURUnJDd
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Baltimore's run game repeatedly generated easy games for Lamar Jackson just as it had for the past three years.
When Lamar Jackson gets his untouched forays to the boundaries, the #RavensFlock offense is humming pic.twitter.com/oyQOwkGeTV
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
And another… pic.twitter.com/kQJA15N04t
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Points for the dismount pic.twitter.com/iKmShbtAgT
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Ty'Son Williams also ran with the confidence and aggression that he showed during the preseason. Note the difference in ball security and his body alignment as a finisher this week.
The read exchange and misdirection working well to set up pullers for a conversion by TY’Son Williams pic.twitter.com/S0FtIUoblP
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Ty’Son Williams running to win rather than running not not to lose. The difference ball security technique and the free arm. Looks like preseason Ty’Son again. #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/FZ3dSoRYpw
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Love everything but the ball security for Williams here but has to find the balance between this play snd last week’s overly cautious behavior. #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/IkMn6KFjCR
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Based on his performance and the fact that John Harbaugh didn't bench Williams for the fumble, you get the sense that the coaches saw an extra cautious Williams last Monday and told him to relax a bit more. They might have gone as far as telling him that if his playing time won't go away if he fumbles once because based on last week's tape, it's clear that Williams ran as if the ball was his career in his hands.
This week, Williams ran with greater authority and used that free arm to work through contact for stronger finishes. He remained a solid option in the passing game and was one good hit away from a touchdown. Latavius Murray is clearly in the Gus Edwards role and while Devonta Freeman had a strong gain on a misdirection play, Williams heads into Week 3 as flex-play fantasy GMs can count on. If he continues to perform as he has, he could inch his way into a bigger role and generate RB2 value.
As it stands, Williams has gone from a UDFA most didn't know about to a viable fantasy contributor in most leagues. Don't get greedy with your expectations and you'll have a reasoned valuation of a talented young back. If you can get him as part of a package deal as an RB3 value, you're not paying too much.
The rebounding ground game takes Jackson away from the precipice of fantasy disaster. Credit the Ravens for the key adjustments it had to make to save its offense, its season, and your fantasy seasons if you have shares of Jackson on your teams.
2. Julio Jones Tells the fantasy World to relax after Mike Vrabel tells Jones to Get his act together
Last week, Jones dropped passes and missed blocks. Already generating a "the grapes were sour," story from Falcons' owner Arthur Blank this summer, Jones' flagging intensity and presence during practices were on display in Tennessee. When it translated to lackluster effort on the field in the season opener, Mike Vrabel called out Jones to the media.
This put the young Titans on notice that even a future Hall of Famer wasn't above criticism, an important boundary Vrabel set for his players that may not have had a direct influence on the outcome of Week 2's come-from-behind victory in Seattle, but it was a notable display of leadership that this team needed after an awful showing against the Cardinals.
Even without left tackle Taylor Lewan, the Titans' offensive line performed better against a penetrating Seahawks defensive front that had its share of success against the Colts' vaunted unit. Derrick Henry eclipsed the century mark with the help of a masterful breakaway run, he also had a number of gains that kept the offense on schedule as well as earning his own first-down conversions.
These performances gave Ryan Tannehill the time to find Julio Jones downfield and the veteran delivered in vintage fashion.
Why pacing a route is valuable for a WR. Julio Jones demonstrates, and we break it down to its fundamental components. #Titans pic.twitter.com/9Dkhs8fuP0
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Great catch by Julio Jones that was stolen by the over officious nature of the NFL.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
If it’s too close to call on video, stick with the original ruling. #Titans pic.twitter.com/J7ph7CuRXt
Julio Jones with a tough catch early. #Titans pic.twitter.com/sHYn5L82qg
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Jones was on the field for most of the game, not requiring any series-long or quarter-long breaks that he frequently needed during the final two years of his Falcons' career. That may be coming as the season progresses but if this happens the way it did in Atlanta, Jones will deliver elite production when he's in the game.
Fantasy GMs should have few concerns about Jones as a performer despite a clunker of a Week 1 debut.
3. Cooper Kupp is Matt Stafford's Fave and What it Means for the Rest of the Receiving Corps
Long-time Cooper Kupp fan here. Still, I thought the primary fantasy receiver of note would be Robert Woods. Instead, we're hearing that Stafford and Kupp are joined at the hip and have the best rapport on the team. One thing is clear, the Rams are moving Kupp around to get the most from his versatile skill set.
This is a Four Verticals Concept where three receivers detached from the formation run deep and the fourth player, usually, the running back works up the seam from the backfield. In this case, the Rams use Kupp as the running back to leak him from the backfield to get a favorable matchup in the Colts' secondary.
Kupp put this defender on the ground from four yards away https://t.co/XMMHG0Tjo9
— Chris B. Brown (@smartfootball) September 19, 2021
The Rams also got the most from Kupp in the screen game an underrated part of Kupp's game because of his vision to set up blocks efficiently and his knack for using his free arm to prevent pursuit from reaching him in the open field.
Cooper Kupp with a field-flipper on the screen. Watch how he pressed to set up his linemen. pic.twitter.com/ydMAp8eZSN
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Kupp also understands how to play his role in setting up an entire secondary for failure. This is a Quarters coverage — Cover 4 — where based on the offenses' alignment, the outside corner will have a responsibility of passing off a receiver to a defender playing deeper. However, the Rams align in a way to manipulate the outside corner into passing off Kupp into open space.
Kupp's responsibility in this alignment is to delay his release so Van Jefferson, playing outside of Kupp, has time to run off the safety and it's this delayed release that ultimately gets Kupp into the open field.
Cooper Kupp 43 yards and a lot of good story telling here. #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/UUYMpxd6hT
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Kupp is the main fantasy cog in this passing game, right now. However, keep an eye on Robert Woods, who is earning enough targets to remain a factor, but Stafford hasn't been pinpoint with his throws to Woods. Their timing is just a bit off, but expect it to improve as the season progresses.
Van Jefferson had a big play against the Bears in Week 1 that prompted the reactionary part of our football people to conclude that Woods was in trouble. This is false. Jefferson's not earning enough targets and his routes are heavily dependent on the work of Woods and Kupp to draw him open.
Van Jefferson benefits on the dog from a well-schemed play #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/5k2ch1l5mo
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Jefferson also dropped a low throw that was catchable, but he failed to get his hands under the ball before the target rebounded off his chest. Jefferson is a fine route runner, but his hands' techniques had notable lapses at Florida based on the several games I studied of his. He's not a bad pass catcher, but his routes are better than his hands and it shows in difficult target scenarios.
If anyone is suffering from Jefferson's playing time, it's DeSean Jackson. However, I wonder if the Rams are saving Jackson for the stretch run because he's had an impressive training camp and a strong connection with Stafford in the vertical game. While I recommended Jackson as an early-season sleeper, it could be the Jackson gets his shot during your playoff run.
If Jackson plays like he has when he's been sporadically healthy, he could be a great roster option for your postseason.
Stafford looks like the same quarterback to me. He makes impressive throws, moves well in the pocket, displays toughness, and still has a few throws in each game that he'd like to have back. There will be some matchups where the defense exploits these reckless tendencies. Overall, the Rams look like an offense fantasy GMs can lean on, but don't expect them to compete with the Buccaneers or Cardinals as an elite unit. The Bears and Colts aren't barometers for that assessment.
4. Cordarrelle Patterson's Emergence in Tampa: How it Happened and can it continue?
Once upon a time, I thought Codarrelle Patterson was one of the most promising rookie receivers of his class. Blessed with speed, strength, and incredible open-field vision and movement, Patterson remains one of the most impressive open-field runners I have ever scouted.
Patterson repeatedly put these skills on display as a rookie with the Minnesota Vikings where he was used as a gadget player and return specialist before Norv Turner took over the offense and instituted his traditional system and expected Patterson to become a full-time receiver. The problem with Patterson back then and to this day has been his difficulty with translating the abstract complexities of the volume of material for the receiving game from the classroom to the playing field.
Scouts were concerned that Patterson lacked the quick-learning ability to play receiver at the NFL level. This isn't to say he's dumb. I've known many intelligent people who just lacked the capability of translating the complexities of specific offensive and defensive systems, especially in football environments where coaches lack the time (and patience) to be true teachers.
Year after year, we've seen Patterson flash with a variety of teams. Bill Belichick even tried his hand with Patterson's game, telling Patterson that he was going to make him the player that he was capable of becoming. A year later after some compelling work as a running back, Patterson didn't fulfill that potential in New England and he was playing for the Bears.
Fast-forward to this weekend, and Patterson was one of the three most compelling weapons for a struggling Falcons' offense repeatedly operating under duress against the World Champion Buccaneers. Patterson earned 12 touches for 69 yards and 2 touchdowns — one on the ground and one through the air.
What did the Falcons do that these other teams didn't? And can Patterson sustain this type of work for fantasy GMs?
Patterson has shown promise as a running back with other teams, especially with specific play designs. The first successful play I've seen Patterson run from the backfield was in Minnesota and New England installed it later for him: Toss. The Toss play is a gap play with pulling linemen working to the edge. Add a fullback to the mix from the I-formation and a well-blocked Toss creates open creases while the pitch to the back gives the runner room to build up momentum.
The end result can resemble the lanes that return specialists encounter in the kicking game. These lanes are Patterson's specialty. Atlanta utilized toss with Patterson against the Buccaneers with success.
Create open field types of scenarios and Cordarrelle Patterson can thrive. He was one of the best open field runners I have evaluated at the college level. #Falcons get big gains on two okays to simulate that environment pic.twitter.com/PDf5USe4AP
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Since there are only so many times a game that an offense with limited talent upfront can successfully run Toss, Atlanta has to generate a variety of plays that get Patterson into open space. Misdirection plays are a good idea and Atlanta has a few installed in its offense. Here's one that benefitted Patterson on Sunday.
Excellent design on the throwback screen to Cordarrelle Patterson #Falcons pic.twitter.com/VFXQ0cHle2
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Of course, using Patterson as the outlet receiver from the backfield is an easy way to get him involved and generate plays that will at least most the chains.
Patterson with a sweet gain before stepping out prior to reaching the EZ pic.twitter.com/pbCZ0AAT53
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
He delivers an excellent catch radius for the position and has shown that he can transition well from blocker to receiver.
Patterson with a fantastic snare tor a TD #FalconsVsBucs pic.twitter.com/9Z6bpjzUth
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
One follower asked why couldn't Atlanta use the shotgun and presumably empty or spread sets a vast majority of the time. It's a good question. For starters, the offensive line isn't good enough. Also, Matt Ryan can maneuver the pocket, but he's not mobile enough to buy time in a pocket. When only five players protect the pocket rather than having the potential flexibility of additional numbers when operating from other alignments that include tight ends and backs, it's a lot more stress on the quarterback to create off-script. While Ryan is good at off-script plays in specific pressure environments, it's not the foundation of his game and the more he's asked to do it, the more his game deteriorates.
Atlanta's offensive line is one of the weaknesses of this team. Tampa Bay had Ryan under constant pressure, forcing the Atlanta quarterback to throw from off-balanced positions, rush his process, and take hits.
The Falcons cut every running back it had in training camp with the exception of its starter, Mike Davis and Patterson. Based on Patterson's work against the Buccaneers, he can become the season-long change-of-pace scatback complement to Davis. Considering the team's lackluster defense and porous offensive line, Patterson could deliver viable PPR production for fantasy leagues as an RB3 because he'll earn consistent volume when Atlanta is playing from a deficit and has to throw the ball.
Still, Mike Davis is known as a good receiver and Davis is a more versatile runner. Patterson is also known for being at his best with a limited number of plays and/or responsibilities to remember. These two factors limit his upside of becoming a strong fantasy RB2.
Absolutely consider Patterson a potential fantasy RB3 in PPR formats who can deliver even better weeks like Sunday's performance. However, his limited skill between the tackles and Davis' presence gives Patterson a defined ceiling. Even if Davis were to get hurt, Wayne Gallman would likely earn Davis' role, not Patterson.
5. Updating Bryan Edwards' pending Emergence in Lieu of David Carr's Fantasy arrival
Last week, I told you not to sleep on Edwards, who delivered in impressive fashion last week against the Ravens, especially in the clutch. A closer look at the game revealed that Edwards got open during the first 45 minutes of the contest, but the Raiders used him primarily as a third or fourth read in David Carr's progressions. When Edwards earned the first or second read, Carr was under pressure and unable to get the ball Edwards' way.
However, Carr made Edwards the top priority late in the game and even delivered a trust-throw of epic proportions that got Edwards' inches shy of the end zone. While we hate to rely on rationale coaching, the fact that Carr leaned so hard on Edwards late combined with Edwards' second impressive training camp in two years, suggested that Edwards will earn more opportunities in the offense. While I didn't suggest dropping top-tier starters for Edwards or presuming WR1-WR2 value immediately, I think he has a shot at delivering fantasy WR3 value consistently and have games with WR1-WR2 upside.
This weekend, Edward only gained 40 yards but his box score didn't show the two targets that were nullified by penalties, including a touchdown. Edwards may not have earned fantasy value this week, but he earned the opportunities to get there, and the reason he didn't get there was out of his control.
Here's a display of Edwards' hands, power as a ball carrier, and how the Raiders targeted him against a good Steelers' defense.
Bryan Edwards showing off his strength as a ballcarrier #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/Oya7780gBP
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 19, 2021
Bryan Edwards over the middle with a good attack of the ball. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/2XEe0A0mdh
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 19, 2021
Bryan Edwards post route for TD nullified by holding call #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/Tj47YvMzOf
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 19, 2021
And another target to Edwards nullified during the same drive #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/DecgUnIK2U
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 19, 2021
The concern for Edwards maintaining WR3 value isn't his ability, but his priority in the offense. While he is a better all-around receiver than Henry Ruggs, Ruggs has the breakaway speed that the Raiders covet.
Splitting two safeties high and influence of Waller creates both gbpkay ftom Carr to Rugge #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/0Ecx9mQeD8
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 19, 2021
Darren Waller is among the best receiving threats in the league at tight end. In addition, there's Hunter Renfrow, a vastly underrated receiver with great route skills and unsung ability to work the intermediate-range on vertical routes.
Hunter Renfrow with the double move and full extension grab #RaidersNation pic.twitter.com/fdgMyLrCDa
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 19, 2021
While not a known commodity among most fantasy GMs, Foster Moreau is an excellent tight end who can block, catch, and run. Think of him as an ascending Austin Hooper with more athletic ability.
Derek Carr throwing Foster Moreau open up the seam #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/yfNO6t1Atb
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 19, 2021
Derek Carr is off to a strong start. If his offensive line can keep him upright and he maintains his aggressive demeanor, Edwards will have a shot at growing into a primary role. Waller and Ruggs have established roles, but if one gets hurt, Edwards has WR2 upside. If not, he still has a shot at WR3 value but his weekly production will range from WR1 ceilings to non-starter floors thanks to the presence of Renfrow and Moreau.
6. Young Runner Roundup: The 2021 Ceilings for Antonio Gibson and Najee Harris Need Updating
Gibson and Harris are excellent young talents, but talent and potential don't always dictate the role fantasy GMs want the player to have. Also, surrounding talent can put a dent in expectations. In the case of these two backs, fantasy GMs will have to lower expectations slightly to moderately this year.
Because Gibson was a part-time wide receiver at Memphis, most presumed he'd become the league's next LaDainian Tomlinson or Marshall Faulk. Maybe they didn't specifically mention those names, but their disappointment corresponds with expectations that strong. Many good wide receiver prospects don't become high-volume receivers during the first 18-24 games of their careers. Gibson ran basic routes at Memphis because he was recruited as an "Athlete" in an offense that leveraged athletes rather than leaning heavily on players with enhanced technical skills.
Gibson can catch, but he's not the route runner that J.D. McKissic is as a running back. It doesn't make Gibson bad, it just makes him limited for fantasy value when he's not a part of the two-minute offense or a full-time guy in the red zone. It shouldn't dissuade you from having Gibson in your lineup as a solid fantasy RB2. He's developing well as a runner.
Last year, as I've stated this summer, Gibson had a lot of success despite being a raw technician at the running back position. This year, he's showing a lot more refinement.
Mature approaches to creases by Antonio Gibson pic.twitter.com/kZmY8Mq9nY
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 17, 2021
Technically sound running got Antonio Gibson pic.twitter.com/T99Ot2hsOu
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 17, 2021
Although Gibson is the No.26 PPR RB after two games, he's the most likely back to earn 18-24 touches in a game and that expected volume should get him on track for solid to strong RB2 production. If a dissatisfied GM is dangling Gibson as an RB2 value, take it. Washington faces Atlanta, Kansas City, Green Bay, Carolina, Seattle, and Dallas (twice). These are seven strong matchups where Gibson has a shot at RB1 value.
I'd take Gibson and sell Najee Harris in re-draft formats. The Steelers lack a good offensive line and Harris will have his best days as a receiver. But expecting more than 5 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown from Harris — his total against the Raiders this weekend is probably too ambitious. Still, Harris's receiving game talent is a no-brainer asset.
Technically sound running got Antonio Gibson pic.twitter.com/T99Ot2hsOu
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 17, 2021
Ben Roethlisberger prefers the quick-hitting passing game with Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster or targeting Johnson or Chase Claypool deep. Pat Freiermuth will be competition for Harris' check-downs and because the offensive line is a weakness, Gibson has greater upside than Harris to earn 18-24 touches whereas Harris's combined totals will likely be 15-20.
The lower ceiling is the Steelers' ground game. Harris has to do a lot of work on his own to reach the line of scrimmage. He'll break tackles, and this stiff-arm is a wicked highlight. However, his efficiency per touch will likely be lower than the likes of Gibson this year.
Why the stiff arm is a great move in the right scenario, I explain why it is with this Najee Harris touch #Steelers pic.twitter.com/KDmNTZzEqS
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 19, 2021
Both players are buys in dynasty leagues, but despite the better quarterback and receiving corps, the Steelers aren't the Steelers of old upfront and that gives Gibson the edge.
7. IDP Alert: Get Grant Delpit Now
I thought Browns' safety Grant Delpit was the best player in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Delpit's stock dropped because he missed a lot of tackles during his final season while playing through a high ankle sprain. Not exactly a great reason to drop a player's value, especially one who has the range, instincts, and versatility of the next great safety in the NFL. Browns fans like me were happy — at least until he tore his Achilles during his rookie year.
Delpit's recovery has been a successful process, but not timely enough for him to start the NFL season. Fortunately, Browns fans only needed to wait a week to see Delpit in action against the Texans, and Delpit delivered four tackles, including a tackle for a loss and a strip-sack. His range, instincts, timing, and yes, his tackling were all exceptional.
Grant Delpit with the TFL/Sack, whatever it is, it is a disruptive play based on good reading. #Browns pic.twitter.com/ZQkVVMqpNq
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Second Delpit tackle #Browns pic.twitter.com/z2A6JHVAda
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
Grant Delpit’s first strip-sack of hopefully many in his #Browns career. Great timing and tackle. pic.twitter.com/M8omUjeg5q
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
If you're in an IDP league that offers bonus points for big plays, Delpit should be on your radar as a free agent acquisition or trade target. Rarely would I trade for safety but Cleveland will likely employ him in a rover position who can disrupt the defense with his instinctive reads and terrific angles to the ball.
8. Terry McLaurin Is Exceptional: In More Ways Than One...
I was incorrect with my evaluation of Terry McLaurin and I'd gladly be that way again with a player like him. McLaurin is an exceptional talent in more ways than one. He's a top producer on a team that, until last year, lacked a complementary talent opposite him.
Another exceptional quality about McLaurin is that his technique as a pass-catcher is not close to what a team will want on paper from an NFL receiver. I'm talking receivers just trying to earn a roster spot, not starters. McLaurin catches the ball like many receivers from the 1950s and 1960s — often with a technique that isn't as good.
Why I missed on Terry McLaurin and why I would do it again. He’s exceptional in more ways than one, including poor technique to at the catch point that only he and Golden Tate have executed at a high level in the past 10-12 years pic.twitter.com/7CrcoaQrhH
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 17, 2021
TD McLaurin pic.twitter.com/E4OIbCkG1z
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 17, 2021
The only receivers I've seen who have been able to carry subpar pass-catching technique into the NFL and remain successful during the past 16 years were Golden Tate and Early Doucet. Tate could catch the ball with the correct technique but often chose not to do so. Doucet only used overhand technique when the ball was above his head.
I had a reader ask me about the role of intangibles, but unless you have the budget and authority to interview players, coaches, teammates, people around town, and have the resources to do psychological assessments, you're not going to have a process with a high percentage of success when it comes to linking intangibles with on-field play. Even teams that have this information often screw it up based on their execution of the process and interpretation/implementation of the data.
It's why I'll err on the side of good technique. It helped me discern that Robert Meachem, Stephen Hill, and many others weren't as good as touted. And, I'll gladly draft McLaurin in any format now that he's proven he can win with a bad process.
9. Why I Told You to Stack Tampa's Passing Game
Early-season reactions are maddening. It's part of the fun of fantasy football. If you want to call making the wrong lineup decisions fun. As my buddy Eric Stoner shared with me a couple of weeks ago, games aren't always meant to be fun—at least not in the sense that we associate the word. But when you trace synonyms of the word "fun" back to its Latin routes, "fun" can also mean full of life.
Fantasy Football is designed to experience the thrill of managing your own team. Thrills aren't always positive in this sense.
It leads fantasy GMs to start Mike Evans in Week 1 only to learn he was nonexistent in the passing game while mid-round pick and late-round picks Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski earned the lead production. Or course, we know many GMs benched Evans this weekend only to see him emerge as a two-touchdown performer and Brown become the afterthought.
And they made Mike Evans out to be old like Brady snd Gronkowski. Nice compliment given the actual play. Great jerk route. pic.twitter.com/qAqpBlL9DR
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
This is why I recommended you stack the Buccaneers passing game. The combination of Brady, Evans, Gronkowski and one of Godwin or Brown can combine to deliver competitive point totals despite one of them having an off week. Brady, Evans, Gronowski, and Godwin combined for 95 points. That's 23.75 points per player as an average of the four options and that average is higher than the totals of these players last week:
- No.7 PPR receiver Marquise Brown
- No.11 quarterback Jalen Hurts
- No.4 PPR runner Tony Pollard
- No.2 PPR tight end Rob Gronkowski
I doubt most of you got all five cogs in the passing game. It's most likely that you have either Brown or Godwin. If we replace Godwin with Brown from last week that's still an average of 20.375 points and better than the following achievers from last week:
- No.13 PPR WR Michael Pittman
- No. 2 PPR TE Rob Gronkowski
- No. 6 PPR RB J.D. McKissic
- No.16 QB Matt Ryan
Although only a theory, I believe it will hold up that if you start your stack, you may have 1-2 really bad weeks. However, more often, you'll have a total from these four combined players that at worst, keep you competitive before factoring your other players on your roster and at best, gives you the equivalent of QB1, RB1 and/or 2 WR1s, and TE1 play each week.
That's not roulette.
As always, you'll find a lot more on Twitter (@mattwaldman). I'm heavy on the analysis, lighter on the takes than the average Twitter handle.
10. Fresh Fish: Week 2
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.
Special of the Week: Carson Wentz
Some people say the most important thing a fighter can have is heart. Francie’s say: show me a fighter who was nothing but heart and I’ll show you a man waiting for a beating.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 20, 2021
-Eddie Scrap-Iron Dupris pic.twitter.com/5zKDgkz4mf
Carson Wentz is a quarterback who is almost nothing but heart. Now he has two sprained ankles. He must learn to protect himself and that means fixing his footwork.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: A good running back who got oversold to the fantasy public due to a perceived role in a great offense that hasn't happened, Edwards-Helaire fumbled away the game on Sunday night.
- Colts' goal-line offense in the first quarter: It wasn't THE difference in the game, but a difference.
- Atlanta's linebackers: This unit along with the safeties have their pictures on milk cartons.
- Atlanta's offensive line: Matt Ryan's career is toast if he has to play an entire season behind this unit that constantly put him in harm's way.
Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.