MISSION
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.
I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 14'S CLIFF'S NOTES
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.
- Ignore the talking heads trying to create drama for ratings, the final play of the Steelers' game was as perfect as football gets and you should learn to appreciate it if you want to love football as much as you love your team.
- Hunter Renfrow is no Cooper Kupp, but he could become the next iteration of Wes Welker. One of the plays that will continue to elevate his career is based on the two-way go. It's a concept you should know about as a football fan but something that gets beat writers and amateur scouts in trouble when evaluating wide receivers and tight ends.
- Myles Garrett is one of the ultimate physical and technical freaks of the NFL. Although the Ravens have a bad offensive line, Garrett did what you'd expect from the best defensive end in fantasy (and real) football: put his team on his back.
- Rashod Bateman earned two big plays in this game from Ravens backup Tyler Huntley and both were routes we don't see enough from Lamar Jackson and that could pose a long-term issue for fantasy GMs.
- With DAndre Swift and Jamaal Willams out for Week 14, it wasn't a question of Jermar Jefferson or Godwin Igwebuike, Instead, it was Craig Reynolds, a third-year running back from Kutztown, who generate fantasy-worthy production. Reynolds was effective but is he a name worth knowing in fantasy football this year and beyond? This year, if injuries and illness don't subside. Beyond? Unlikely.
- IDP Alert: Melvin Ingram III may not be lighting up fantasy lineups as a Chief, but Ingram has thankfully helped the Chiefs move Chris Jones back to defensive tackle — and at least enough to invigorate Jones' fantasy value at year's end.
- I profiled Dee Eskridge last week as a receiver whose presence would help the Seahawks' passing game, especially with opening things up for his teammates. What I neglected to mention was how fun Eskridge is as a run blocker and why I labeled Eskridge a little punk prior to the draft when studying his tape at Western Michigan. Rashad Penny sends his regards.
- Davis Mills demonstrated the tools that could make him a better prospect than many thought. His processing and vertical placement continue to improve as the season unfolds and the Texans are taking notice.
- Davonte Adams fade-slant was one of the prettiest double moves you'll see this season and it gets extra points for the difficulty of executing a double move in a compressed area of the field.
- Fresh Fish: The Ravens' secondary is depleted and the mistakes it makes are a weekly routine.
- The Raiders offense gave the ball and its quarterback away so early that the team couldn't recover.
- The Texans' defense, especially its linebackers remain an undisciplined and reactive bunch, helping Rashaad Penny have a career day.
- Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions. Three were his fault and two were poor reads of underneath coverage in the middle of the field.
- Baker Mayfield, according to a colleague of mine is like a bad golfer. Once again, the Browns were in a closer game than they should have been thanks in part to Mayfield
For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.
1. Football Perfection: The Final Play of the Vikings-Steelers
The best football you'll see comes down to moments where players execute at the zenith of their talents. The problem is that many people don't see. They're too busy looking for heroes and goats, especially tabloid media like First Take — also known as The View on testosterone therapy — which is wildly successful because it appeals to our desire to watch car accidents unfold.
I imagine if the talent, program directors, or executives from the four-letter-word networks that peddle this material read my thoughts, they would say that I envy their audience, their salaries, and their reputation. Go ahead and punt it, fellas, you just had a three-and-out series of thoughts.
I appreciate your understanding of our basest human nature and industriousness to turn it into a buck. I really do. I also appreciate having a modest but ardent corner of football analysis space filled with readers and listeners who appreciate nuance as an entree rather than a dessert or an amuse-bouche 24/7.
Nothing wrong with this type of goodness in moderation, but many of you don't even realize you're craving a plate full of greens where someone really put their foot in it. I'm no country meemaw, but I have enough experience around the football kitchen and if you're making a goat out of Pat Freiermuth for dropping this ball, you're suffering from football malnourishment.
Sometimes you get the bear and sometimes the bear gets you.
— Steelers Depot 🎅🎄🎠(@Steelersdepot) December 11, 2021
Great route by Pat Freiermuth to try to hold Harrison Smith by angling at him. Ben lets it go when he sees LB's back in coverage. Ball placement is A+. Rip out by Smith is A++. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/yA0NVOWMsN
Everything about that last play was perfect. The route, the anticipation, the placement of the ball, the hands to secure it initially, and the knockout by Smith.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 10, 2021
Just straight up playmaking all around. But someone had to lose on it.
Freiermuth didn't drop the football, Smith made a great defensive play. Yes, this is semantics. Semantics matter. If you can't appreciate the subtle difference you're more likely to miss on the subtle differences in talent that many of you aspire to acquire as fans, writers, podcasters, and students of the game.
Each key part of this play featured a contribution from a player performing at the top of his game. Sure, one could imagine a scenario where Smith hits the ball soundly, the ball momentarily comes loose, and Freiermuth fights to hang on for the score. Perhaps that scenario would be the real perfect play where each player did their task as well as could be expected.
Still, most coaches with legitimate experience, perspective, and anti-Urban Meyer style of leadership understand when the aesthetics of a football moment supersede the hero-goat/credit-fault behavior. We encounter moments throughout our lives where we intuitively grasp that there was nothing to criticize about it.
This was one of those moments. Learn to appreciate it and you're seeing football as a fan of the game and not just your team. You'll be a lot less miserable when your teams or players "lose."
2. Hunter Renfrow and Putting the Two-Way Go in Proper Perspective
An unsung talent gaining appreciation during the past year, Renfrow's route running is a big reason for the public acclaim.
This route from Hunter Renfrow 🤧
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 12, 2021
(via @nfl) pic.twitter.com/lrF4jSnUXX
These option routes to Hunter Renfrow have been money this year. Renfrow showing why that “Third & Renfrow” moniker is so accurate. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/GQMPYYCEjy
— Chris Reed (@ChrisReed_NFL) November 15, 2020
Hunter Renfrow runs some crazy routes 🤪
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 5, 2021
pic.twitter.com/NFtZKAtimD
These routes have one thing in common: They are Two-Way Go opportunities and they give an inherent advantage to the receiver because as the name implies, the receiver has two potential directions he can go and the defender must account for both. There's no boundary for the defender to use as an ally.
This shouldn't detract from the artfulness of Renfrow's work, he doesn't need the two-way go to win against man-to-man coverage. However, many do and every year, the greatest mistake I see from beat writers and draft analysts when covering practices of all types are rooted in their ignorance of the two-way-go.
When a receiver has a two-way go it's usually from the slot although it can happen when aligned far enough inside the numbers. Unless the defender playing within 3-5 yards of the receiver at the line has a safety also playing the receiver over the top, this primary defender will lose early and lose big if he isn't patient with covering the receiver's initial release. Declare a position too early and the receiver has all the room necessary to win in the opposite direction.
The best hope that a defender has is a patient reaction that forces the receiver to use multiple moves and take enough time doing it that the quarterback is either under pressure and can't target the receiver or throwing elsewhere.
Renfrow excels at option routes that are rooted in a two-way-go scenario. He knows how to sell a story without taking too much time to tell it. He's efficient with his steps no wasted or unnecessary movement. It's why he's so successful running these routes in the red zone where there's an accelerated timetable for success. After all, these routes are often the second read or a schemed first-read built on play-action or misdirection that requires significant teamwork from others to create the space for the receiver to work one-on-one in a compressed area of the field.
A lot of receivers lack these skills. Their approach is rooted in playground creativity without respect for the limited time allotted for the quarterback to realistically get the ball out of his hand. They can get away with this on occasion in the college game because when an offense has an athletic advantage over a defense it can provide the quarterback the time to throw that they'll rarely earn in the NFL.
Practices often feature drills that place coverage in two-way go scenarios and the quarterback making the throw is not doing so under pressure. Either there are no linemen in the drill or there's a no-contact rule for the quarterback. This allows receivers to run routes that have more moves than jello on a rickety conveyor belt.
Braxton Miller (third round) and Andy Isabella (second round) earned a lot of media love and, arguably greater draft capital than deserved on the basis of their performances from the two-way go and athletic metrics. I nicknamed Isabella "Dance Fever" in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio because of the excessive movement inherent in these routes that would never fly in the NFL.
In contrast, Penny Hart was also at the Senior Bowl with Isabella and he was far more efficient in the same scenarios. He went undrafted and the first team that signed Hart (Colts) cut him within the same year. Now on the Seahawks, Hart has worked his way into a contributing role off the bench and had an impressive training camp in 2021. Miller is out of the league and Isabella's stock is trending down.
Nick Vannett was another early-practice darling in Mobile for his winning work on drills with two-way go scenarios. The next day, the team put receivers in scenarios where they would get pressed at the line. Vannett didn't catch a pass in a single drill where a defender put a hand on him in that practice. While he had more success in subsequent practices, he dropped more than he caught.
A third-round pick of the Seahawks, "Baby Gronk" (this was his nickname) got traded three years later to the Steelers for a fifth-round pick, cut by the Broncos, and he's now a Saint. The fifth-round pick that the Steelers paid was probably the more accurate valuation of the player.
This is important to understand when watching prospects. If the player is earning his draft capital on the merits of his measurements, workouts, and production rooted in schemed plays where the offense tricks the defense and the player is the recipient of the ball in this advantageous situation, you better note if his impressive practices in all-star games and workouts are based on his performance with the two-way go. The same is true if the player is winning match-up plays with routes that feature vertical speed but zero route skills that require breaks inside, outside, or back to the quarterback.
Renfrow is not one of these players although he's a great slot option. He is sneaky-tough in the vertical game for a smaller option and he's quick enough to win vertically with play-action routes or combination routes. In these respects, Renfrow is a lot like Cooper Kupp but Kupp is bigger, stronger, and quicker (his short-area quickness and acceleration are elite by workout standards at the position).
If the Raiders don't re-sign Renfrow I'd bet the Patriots will scoop him up in 2023 and pair him with Mac Jones in an attempt to reprise the Brady/Welker dynamic in Josh McDaniels' offense. If this happens, Renfrow can be a 100-catch receiver.
3. You're Welcome, Baker: Myles Garrett
Myles Garrett faced a fading Alexander Villanueva for the past two weeks, a player who hasn't been the same talent he was years ago with the Steelers — and Villanueva might be one of the remaining strengths of this patchwork unit. When this is the caliber of the opposition, you expect a player of Garrett's skill to have a game-changing impact.
Here you go...
Myles Garrett sack, strip, scoop, score. #Browns pic.twitter.com/d9XlrygKyf
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
You don't see many 6'4" and 272-pound individuals with the hands and book smarts of a quarterback, speed and agility of a big slot receiver, and the strength of a lineman do what you just saw. And then, do it again below, forcing Villaneuva to tackle his nemesis for fear of a similar result.
Garret with same move on Villanueva and draws flag #Browns #Ravensflock pic.twitter.com/50x7C4RrqO
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
Garrett is why I was excited about the signing of Jadeveon Clowney, an excellent run stopper also blessed with freakish athletic talent. Clowney is between 6-15 pounds lighter (depending on the source) and runs even faster than Garrett (4.53-second, 40-Yard Dash). He's not as skilled of a pass rusher but paired with Garrett, he's in a great position to clean up.
The Jacapitator sack on Tyler Huntley #Browns pic.twitter.com/l46Qf2Ey3l
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
This duo and the rest of the Browns' defense should be wreaking havoc on the NFL. Can you imagine them on the field with early leads of 10, 14, or 17 points thanks to an excellent ground game and explosive passing game that not only generated those points but could build on those leads?
I can but with Baker Mayfield who is part of the walking wounded and struggling to deliver accurate throws for the full complement of plays in the game plan — and that has been a struggle even when healthy and facing quality opponents — Garrett and the Browns defense are forced to save Mayfield and the offense's hind parts a little too often for winning football in January.
Garrett is the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year honors. With the cast that Cleveland has, they better not waste 2-3 years rolling with a quarterback who can't carry the team or is unseasoned. Even if it means giving up a good player, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or even Matt Ryan (he has an out this year that could make a trade worthwhile) could deliver that Cleveland needs to truly become an AFC force.
4. NewsFlash: Rashod Bateman Is Good...Real NewsFlash: Will it Matter with Lamar Jackson as His Quarterback?
One of the things draftniks loved about Bateman was his ability to win the football in the air. He was an absolute vertical and aerial stud opposite Minnesota teammate Tyler Johnson in 2019. In 2020, Bateman lost a lot of weight due to a difficult bout with COVID-19 and played in an offense that used him differently.
When Tyler Huntley found Bateman twice on vertical throws against Cleveland, these were targets any Bateman fan has been anxious to see.
Rashod Bateman with a candidate for catch of the week.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
Sets up TD plunge
Great adjustment on iffy placement #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/wKDzAmbz3c
Tyler Huntley with dime to Rashod Bateman on 4th down sets up TD to Andrews to draw within 3 #RavensVsBrowns pic.twitter.com/9g6QJpCoV5
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
Bateman and Huntley brought the Ravens back and made this a legitimate contest in the fourth quarterback. Watching Bateman win in this fashion is encouraging until you consider the fact that it wasn't Lamar Jackson making these throws. I've watched every game of the Ravens and while I don't have a photographic memory and I could easily have forgotten, I don't recall seeing Jackson target Bateman on back-shoulder routes. And while I bet I've forgotten, I also don't recall seeing Jackson target Bateman on many vertical routes.
This is where the concern creeps into my outlook for Bateman in Baltimore. I admire Jackson's game and there's no doubt he's a legitimate franchise quarterback even if he's not a traditional drop-back passer with the high-velocity arm.
I am also realistic about Jackson. His vertical game is best in the middle of the field and while Bateman can win there, that's Mark Andrews' and Marquise Brown's territory. It means Jackson will have to get markedly better as a boundary thrower and that hasn't happened in the vertical passing game. Because I don't believe he'll improve the velocity of his arm for many of these throws, I doubt we'll see this change with Jackson's game.
The best hope I have for Bateman is that Jackson can legitimately make these throws at the NFL level and Greg Roman has been stubborn about using them because he didn't trust the receivers on the team. Unfortunately, I fear my hope is wishful thinking.
I hope Jackson and Roman prove me wrong, especially for the opportunity to maximize Bateman's talents. Until then, there's a lower ceiling on Bateman's fantasy upside. The only way he can develop into a consistent starter if I'm right about these observations will be a Ravens' scheme that makes Bateman a primary option and feeds him 100-140 targets.
5. Opportunity Knocked: Did Lions RB Craig Reynolds Break Down the Door?
Not very often am I clueless about a player but I had no idea who Craig Reynolds was until I saw him compiling yardage in the Lions' boxscore on Sunday while I was watching the Chiefs-Raiders. A third-year back from Kutztown, Reynolds earned his way off the practice squad this week thanks to Jamaal Williams' bout with COVID-19.
Until that point, I legitimately thought we'd see a split with Jermar Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike. Jefferson didn't see a snap because it turned out that he had the flu. Igwebuike had a similar role that we've seen from him thus far — minimal. Instead, it was Reynolds who earned 99 yards from scrimmage on 13 touches against the Broncos.
How did he look? Reynolds didn't look like the next Raheem Mostert, Priest Holmes, or Willie Parker to emerge from anonymity into stardom. Still, I see why the Lions called him up. He displayed situational wisdom when plays didn't unfold favorably, he identified cutback lanes when Detroit occasionally ran a zone play for him, and he took what the Lions gave him — and a little more — on well-blocked gap plays.
In this respect, Reynolds looked like there's a chance for him to become the next Justin Forsett or Chester Taylor.
Smart football by Craig Reynolds when this counter is blown up early #Lions pic.twitter.com/ZTHzyf1j6r
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 13, 2021
#Lions accommodate Craig Reynolds with effective gap scheme plays with lead blocks to work with. Putting more on OL to let Reynolds just “play” pic.twitter.com/MkIJ4BiNpW
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 13, 2021
Reynolds earned the bulk of his production during meaningful playing time with the game still a contest. Long-time Detroit Free Press beat writer Dave Birkett called for Reynolds to remain on the active roster, which is a reasonable take. Still, Jefferson and Igwebuike have their merits. Jefferson has the best combination of refined skills maneuvering between the tackles and big-play athletic ability. Igwebuike plays with great intensity but he's still raw.
I like Reynolds' pad level and vision. He's not as dynamic of a mover, but he gets the most from every play because he's an efficient player. If Reynolds can show more as a pass protector, he could overtake one of these two reserves. If not, I'd bet on Jefferson to maintain his active spot while Swift is out and earn at least a split with Reynolds if Williams can't play for another week or two.
If you're thinking about adding Reynolds, you only want to do so if you have at least one of the following factors:
- A large roster (at least 25 players).
- You have Swift or Williams and you don't have Williams or Igwebuike available.
- You have only two backs behind your starters who you'd use in case of injury, illness, suspension, etc.
As we've seen with TySon Williams, a player can gain or lose confidence with more playing time and change how they play. Williams became tentative during the regular season after running with abandon during the summer. We may need to see another week or two of Reynolds to know how he acclimates to legitimate playing time. Still, from what I saw, I don't think you're looking at the next Terrell Davis, so don't get ahead of yourself.
6. IDP Alert: Thank You, Melvin Ingram III, the Ill-Conceived Chris Jones Experiment Is Ending!
As an avid IDP player with shares of Jones on just about every one of my teams, I've been lamenting the Chief's ill-conceived experiment to move Jones from defensive tackle to end. His fantasy value tanked and the Chiefs' front looked ordinary, at best. The arrival of Ingram from an unsuccessful stint in Pittsburgh put an end to those woes.
Although Jones has still seen snaps at end, Ingram's presence has encouraged the Chiefs to move him back to tackle. Although the points haven't been consistent, the on-field plays have been and the points' outbursts have been game-changing for IDP GMs.
Thank goodness the Chiefs are using Chris Jones at DT again #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/9SBdL2Bm5Y
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
Chris Jones and Melvin Ingram III congregate at Derek Carr.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
Great hand usage by Jones #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/qFyQutM6nH
More Chris Jones handy work—great library of techniques on display in just two series #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/G1kjcHfJRi
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
Jones has the hands and strength to win against tackles, guards, or centers but his acceleration is best-suited as an interior defender in four- and five-man fronts. He's not Reggie White in this respect. No one ever will be. Still, if the Chiefs let Jones be himself, he's still among the 2-3 most disruptive interior linemen in the game.
7. Dee Eskridge Is a Little Punk (and That's A Compliment) and Rashaad Penny is Thankful
Last week, I profiled Eskridge's catches and YAC skills, noting that the rookie's presence in the Seahawks' lineup would open the secondary for Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. What I neglected to mention was Eskridge's impact as a run blocker, which is something I emphasized about his pre-draft profile this spring.
Eskridge has a talent for tightrope walking the line between fair and foul with his play. Jalen Ramsey and DeAndre Hopkins have this skill, which puts Eskridge in great company. Like them, he has excellent hands and creativity with how to use them. He's physical and can go to the edge of what's legal, often instigating retaliatory behavior from opponents and knowing when to pull back from this style just as he's triggered his defender.
While it is the thing you hate to see as a fan the team playing Eskridge there's something admirable about this skill when you can divorce your feelings from it. This week, Eskridge sprang Penny on a touchdown run and you'll see what I mean about him walking the line of legality.
I showed you last year that Dee Eskridge is a little punk (in a complimentary way).
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 13, 2021
Here’s a sneak preview of what’s to come in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/N1MeJqkq3W
One of the things that makes Eskridge so good at this behavior is that he's legitimately a skillful player who can block without cheating. A former cornerback, Eskridge uses his hands exceptionally well early in a block. At Western Michigan, he routinely knocked down the hands of a defender before establishing his own.
This has translated to his NFL performances early on.
More Dee Eskridge in the run game. pic.twitter.com/ROCTic0Lcx
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 13, 2021
Eskridge has deep speed and YAC skills, so he's going to be a lot more than a run blocker. But the fact that the Seahawks used him as the sole receiver in a three-tight end set and as the lead blocker is a telling indication of not only the offense's confidence in his run blocking but also what he can do downfield when the Seahawks get around to using that same 13 personnel set and run play-action.
Based on what I've seen from Eskridge in college and the NFL, you can expect big plays and big blowups from opponents in Eskridge's long-term future. Little Laimbeer might not be a bad nickname for him, except he doesn't try to hurt anyone.
8. Davis Mills Could Be A Legitimate Reason Houston Doesn't Draft A Quarterback
At least not an early-round quarterback. This will anger a lot of Texans fans if it comes to fruition, but this quarterback class may not be the one you want to pick from early on, anyhow.
I checked in with MIlls' game two months ago, labeling him a worthwhile speculative addition in dynasty formats:
Although a third-round pick, Mills' draft capital doesn't mean much for an organization giving him extended chances. Will Grier, Cody Kessler, Jacoby Brissett, Mason Rudolph, Davis Webb, and C.J. Beathard were all third-round picks since 2016. Four of them are backups and three of those four are on at least their second team.
At the same time, the 2022 class isn't a strong group of quarterback prospects from what I've studied thus far.
Much will obviously depend on these next 3-4 games. If Mills can deliver similar production that he showed against New England, he could earn an extended audition against far more favorable defenses that include the Titans, Jets, Seahawks, Jaguars, and Chargers. One could also hope for Taylor to return shortly before or after the bye week, struggle, and given the Texans reason to use Mills for the rest of the way.
Pre-draft, I liked Mills more than all of the third-round picks mentioned above with the exception of Will Grier, who admitted that he didn't study as Carolina's backup. No matter how talented, if you don't prepare and fail, you not only lose the coaching staff but also your teammates. He had no shot in Carolina after that display of behavior.
I think of Mills as a partial glass of water — neither half-full nor half-empty — because he has skills but he's in the most difficult landing spot among the 2021 prospects with viable starter potential. Houston's leadership is under fire, it's a roster filled with aging veterans and less talented journeymen, and there's a good chance the owner lacks the will to stick with a long-term plan.
Weighing these two contrasting factors, keep a neutral perspective. Mills presents a worthwhile speculative addition for dynasty leagues. Make him a throw-in for a trade if you have a spot open on a larger roster, especially in Super-Flex formats. Offer more than a fourth-round pick in a dynasty format is paying too much for Mills. If he begins a streak of games with 280-300 yards passing and limits his turnovers, you can increase the offer to a third-round selection or ask for him in a package deal as a secondary or tertiary option.
In other words, Mills is better than he looks but his situation isn't favorable for him to become a long-term fantasy factor.
But here's the thing, Tyrod Taylor was healthy enough to play this week and the Texans decided to start Mills for the rest of the year — a sign that they see enough from Mills to give him an extended tryout for 2022. Think of this stretch of games as a tryout to "compete" for the starting job in 2022.
If Mills plays well, he could be the reason the Texans don't draft a quarterback in the first round. From what I saw in October, Mills showed poise, play-action expertise, placement with throwing receivers open, and promising work with tight-window targets and working outside of structure.
This week, Mills displayed a lot of the same skills plus improved pre-snap recognition of disguised blitzes, full-field reads, and vertical accuracy.
Nice work by Davis Mills on 2nd and long
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 13, 2021
9/9 thus far #Texans pic.twitter.com/SB8CsAUNhJ
Nice boundary work by Nico Collins #Texans pic.twitter.com/FMOHbcLKIS
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 13, 2021
.
Nullified by unnecessary OPI, Davis Mills with the cross-field, back-shoulder throw under pressure #Texans pic.twitter.com/iTPziCVzki
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 13, 2021
Maintain skepticism about the Texans embracing Mills as the uncontested starter in 2022, but there's nothing wrong about making him a priority throw-in when making package deals in dynasty leagues. I've done this with DErnest Johnson, who probably is a cheaper throw-in than Mills but on the same principle if acquiring talent that most can't afford to keep as a luxury pick but might wish they did at the same point a year later.
9. Davante Adams Appreciation Month
Adams has easily been in the conversation for "best NFL receiver" for a few years. With the likelihood that this is the last season we see Adams and Aaron Rodgers playing together, it's a good idea to remind those who don't watch a lot of Packers games what they'll be missing.
This fade-slant double-move is a rarity. Usually, the slant is the first part of a double move and you don't see a lot of double moves in the red zone. But when you're part of an elite pitch-catch combination, you create things others don't.
Unstoppable 🔥
— NFL Australia (@NFLAustralia) December 13, 2021
TD 2ï¸âƒ£ for @tae15adams @ChicagoBears 27 @packers 45#DaBears | #GoPackGo
📺 #CHIvsGB on @ESPNAusNZ and https://t.co/sSU0MeSBbV pic.twitter.com/BQ03rKf2aw
It just looks like a slant from this angle, doesn't it? Yeah, this is the thing that makes me laugh when I hear analysts discuss the value of the All-22 as if they received the stone tablets from God on the mountaintop. While this angle is the broadcast angle, the distance from the field is similar to the All-22, which means that you can't see the individual techniques of the player as well as you can when the broadcast moves to closeups of the interaction. This is something you don't get with All-22.
All-22 is great for seeing coverage and the perspective of how receivers, quarterbacks, and defensive backs make conceptual and strategic choices. It can be awful for seeing the player's technical skills.
What the stone tablets from the All22 mountaintop don’t always show as well as broadcast. pic.twitter.com/bAN3uoenoo
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 13, 2021
Many will say this isn't a double move, it's simply a stem that sells the fade with a head fake and shoulder fake. But the way Adams pairs the diamond release to the outside with these fakes gives it the feel of a double move. I haven't seen any receiver sell the end-zone fade in this way and do it this well.
Adams may not be as athletic as Tyreek Hill, as fast as Chase, or as crafty in tight spaces as Hopkins, but he's arguably the best storyteller of the bunch and definitely the best with footwork off the line.
10. FRESH FISH: WEEK 14
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.
Special of the Week: The Ravens' secondary is depleted and the mistakes it makes are a weekly routine.
Another blown coverage for #RavensFlock this year. #Browns exploit and Baker Mayfield places in the safest spot with back shoulder. pic.twitter.com/HINpLQligp
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 12, 2021
- The Raiders offense gave the ball and its quarterback away so early that the team couldn't recover.
- The Texans' defense, especially its linebackers remain an undisciplined and reactive bunch, helping Rashaad Penny have a career day.
- Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions. Three were his fault and two were poor reads of underneath coverage in the middle of the field.
- Baker Mayfield, according to a colleague of mine is like a bad golfer "who hits a few flush and you think it's going to be a good day and then shanks a few more and goes off the rails." Once again, the Browns were in a closer game than they should have been thanks in part to Mayfield
Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.