The Wentz and Future King?

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Editor's Note: This article was published before Wentz suffered a foot injury in training camp that will sideline him for the next 5-12 weeks. For a breakdown of how you should view Wentz and the Colts' skill-position players for 2021 drafts, check out Sigmund Bloom's article here.

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When we last saw Carson Wentz on the field, he looked rudderless, broken, and deserving of his eventual unceremonious exit from Philadelphia. But lingering bias from Wentz’s awful 2020 season has swung public opinion too far against him as we begin drafting our 2021 fantasy teams. No player who changed teams this offseason stands to benefit more from their new situation.

• His offensive line goes from rags to riches with the Colts
• So do his pass-catching weapons
• He has the full support of the organization and a head coach in Frank Reich who has proven he knows how to put Wentz in a position to succeed

What Happened?

Wentz’s play was catastrophic in 2020. He went from being considered one of the league’s best young quarterbacks to one of the worst seemingly overnight. The outlier season jumps off the page when glancing at his year-over-year statistics:

Data courtesy Pro-Football-Reference.com.

What was at the root of Wentz’s tailspin? Reuben Frank from NBC Sports laid out 10 plausible theories back in December. Some of them are impossible for us to quantify:

• Wentz’s knee still isn’t right after tearing his ACL in 2017
• His confidence got shaken, and the situation snowballed
• He got too muscular during the last offseason, sapping him of his mobility
• Lingering effects from a severe 2019 concussion derailed his split-second decision-making ability
• The Eagles picking Jalen Hurts in the draft damaged his psyche

If one or more of the above factors caused Wentz’s on-field productivity to fall off a cliff last year, it would never be fully proven. There were, however, several theories Frank brought forward that are more easily substantiated. And it just so happens this year’s Indianapolis Colts team is well-positioned to provide a solution for each of the objective problems that plagued Wentz last season.

Poor Offensive Line Play

This is where Footballguys' Adam Harstad would jump in to remind us that the responsibility for sacks falls on the quarterback more so than his pass blockers. Harstad (as always) makes a persuasive argument, but the 2020 Eagles offensive line has to be an exception to the rule.

• A pile-up of injuries forced Philadelphia to try a record 14 different offensive line combinations in 16 games. Projected starters Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard were lost for the year before the season even started. Perennial Pro-Bowl tackle Lane Johnson appeared in just seven games. Per Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric, which controls for opponent quality, as well as down and distance, the Eagles’ makeshift offensive line performed as the second-worst pass-blocking unit in the NFL.

• Wentz’s career sack rate hovered around 6% through 2019 and never exceeded 7.2% before last year’s staggering 10.3% rate. In total, he was sacked a league-leading 50 times despite sitting out the final four games of the season.

Wentz’s accuracy while under pressure was the lowest among quarterbacks with at least 500 dropbacks. In fairness, he also rated as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league on plays where his pocket was kept clean. But facing pressure on 37% of dropbacks is at least a passable excuse for Wentz’s across-the-board skittishness.

Fortunately, Wentz’s protection is about to go from a liability to a strength. Some are making the case Indianapolis has the best starting offensive line in football. Last season, Philip Rivers (notoriously statuesque and playing on a bad foot) was kept clean on 76.4% of his throws, which trailed only Ben Roethlisberger for the highest rate in the league among qualifying quarterbacks.

The Colts will be without retired left tackle Anthony Castonzo to protect Wentz’s blindside this year. However, our Matt Bitonti still listed Indianapolis as a borderline top-10 unit in his early offensive line rankings. Bitonti also notes the unit can make a jump back into the Top 5 when recently signed left tackle Eric Fisher fully recovers from a torn Achilles.

No Supporting Cast

Even if we assign zero blame to the Eagles’ offensive line for Wentz’s woes, it’s undeniable he was working with a sorry group of pass-catchers for most of the season. Injuries once again played a major role. Jalen Reagor, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders, and Dallas Goedert all missed significant time. Poor front-office decision-making was also partially to blame (we're looking at you, JJ Arcega-Whiteside). No matter the cause, Wentz was left with precious little to work with during his 11 full games as a starter.

• Travis Fulgham commanded the highest target share from Wentz (16.3%). He surprised for a while but is also a former sixth-round draft pick who was cut after one season by the receiver-needy Detroit Lions.

• Right behind Fulgham in the pecking order was Greg Ward -- a second-string slot receiver on any other team. Ward was forced to change positions in the AAF after going undrafted as the Houston Cougars’ quarterback in 2017.

• Wentz’s No. 3 target, Zach Ertz, joined his quarterback in falling off a statistical cliff. Ertz averaged a meager 3.9 yards per target on throws from Wentz -- close to half his previous career mark of 7.6 before 2020.

This year’s group of Colts skill-position players ooze pedigree and fit archetypes Wentz has excelled with in the past.

• T.Y. Hilton’s play slipped with Philip Rivers last year, but the veteran came on late in the season, finishing as the PPR WR17 from Week 10 forward. Even if Hilton’s new peak at age-31 is more like a fantasy No. 2, he still qualifies as one of the best wideouts Wentz has played with to date. Hilton has already compared Wentz to Andrew Luck and is excited for the "return of deep shots" to the Colts' offense. Last year, Wentz threw 20 or more yards downfield on 13.7% of his attempts compared to 9.9% for Rivers.

• Michael Pittman has the size, ball skills, and athleticism to approximate Alshon Jeffery’s 2017-2018 production when the latter played with Wentz on the Eagles. It’s conceivable Pittman makes a year-two leap and supplants Hilton as the Colts' No. 1 receiver.

• Freak injuries have limited Parris Campbell to a total of nine games through his first two NFL seasons, but the 59th pick in the 2019 draft will provide Wentz with a tactical advantage when healthy. Campbell will likely return to the slot, where he commanded nine targets in his only appearance last season. But his 4.3-speed and ability to separate at every level is tailor-made for Wentz’s arm strength. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Reich use Campbell in a role that also allows him to attack defenses vertically.

• Wentz’s MVP-caliber 2017 season came when the Eagles running backs combined to finish third in the league with 1,787 rushing yards. A strong running game to take pressure off Wentz is a foregone conclusion in Indianapolis when you factor in their road-grading offensive line and mega-talented lead rusher, Jonathan Taylor. The Colts even have Nyheim Hines to play the role of Darren Sproles-lite.

• Pass-catching tight ends have been a staple for both Wentz and Reich throughout their respective careers. The Colts lack someone of Zach Ertz's caliber, but Mo Alie-Cox, Jack Doyle, and fourth-round pick Kylen Granson form a well-rounded platoon with plenty of receiving upside. We also shouldn't rule out a trade for Ertz, who is unhappy in Philadelphia and a natural fit with the Colts given their need and cap space.

Organizational Disaster

Six weeks before Wentz was shipped out of Philadelphia, the Eagles fired head coach Doug Pederson. The problems between Wentz and Pederson are well documented, but here's a short synopsis:

• Pederson reportedly would call plays Wentz occasionally killed at the line of scrimmage for no other apparent reason than personal distaste

• Adam Schefter reported the two did not speak outside of pre-game install meetings for 8-10 weeks during the season

In addition to Pederson and Wentz seemingly hating each other, play-calling was also an issue. The Eagles had become predictable under Pederson, to the point they had trouble executing routine screen passes to their running backs. Pederson also went long stretches without rolling Wentz out of the pocket to take advantage of his ability to throw on the move.

In retrospect, offensive dysfunction in Philadelphia should have been the expectation all along. The team had no offensive coordinator. Instead, Rich Scangarello, Marty Mornhinweg, Andrew Breiner, and Press Taylor were either hired or given a new job title to help Pederson run the offense. It’s probably not a coincidence we don’t often see similar arrangements in the NFL.

Thankfully, organizational dysfunction is now a thing of the past for Wentz. Reich and GM Chris Ballard are widely considered one of the best head coach/general manager tandems in the league. There are several reasons to believe it’s more likely Reich will help turn Wentz around than to think Wentz’s best football is behind him at age-28:

• Reich just coaxed an unlikely season out of Philip Rivers, another quarterback he had a history with as a coordinator. Rivers’ completion rate, touchdown percentage, interceptions, and adjusted net yards per attempt all rebounded on Reich’s watch after the veteran looked ready to wash out of the league in 2019.

• Wentz said the mutual respect he shares with Reich, both as it relates to football and who they are as people, allows them to have "healthy discussions and disagreements" while challenging each other -- basically, the polar opposite of his relationship with Pederson.

• If Reich’s time in Philadelphia informed him Wentz was the malcontent and poor leader the Philadelphia media portrayed him to be on his way out the door, the Colts would have gone in a different direction at quarterback. Instead, when asked about the pressure he feels to get Wentz’s play back on track, Reich said, “I love sticking my neck out for people I believe in. I’m willing to put it on the line for players that I believe in. I believe in this team, I believe in Carson, so I feel good about it.”

• We’ve seen it before. Wentz has never reached greater heights than he did under Reich’s tutelage in his MVP-caliber sophomore season.

What Does It All Mean For Fantasy?

It’s far from a hot take to suggest Wentz is better-positioned for success with the Colts than last year’s Eagles team. But how should that affect your 2021 draft plans? The answer, as always, comes down to the range of possible outcomes vs. ADP value.

We can’t let Wentz off the hook entirely for his shortcomings in 2020. He was slow to process the field, didn’t see open receivers, threw plenty of ill-advised passes, and held onto the ball for too long. It’s a huge ask of Reich, the Colts coaching staff, and surrounding talent to return the current version of Wentz to his 2017 form.

But it’s not like Wentz needs to revert to an MVP candidate to be a viable starting quarterback for your fantasy team. He finished the 2019 season as the cumulative QB8. In 2018, he was QB13 on a per-game basis. His current ADP on Underdog Fantasy is QB22. There is clear profit potential in drafting Wentz at cost if we create a loose median projection by plugging his 2018-2019 averages into our site consensus projection of 35.7 pass attempts per game for Indianapolis.

Wentz won’t be a zero in the rushing categories either. If we remove 2018 from the sample (the year he returned from tearing his ACL), he’s averaged 3.9 rush attempts, 17 rushing yards, and 0.14 rushing touchdowns per game throughout his career.

These rough projections would have placed Wentz at QB15 in 2020. And upside exists if a reunion with Reich and an improved supporting cast boost Wentz beyond the post-knee surgery norms he established before last season’s meltdown.

Site Projections

Final Thoughts

There are strong signs that Wentz will rehab his career in Indianapolis, and all you currently have to risk is a pick outside the top-150 to find out if he can. Late in drafts, you’re choosing between Wentz and quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold, each of whom possesses Wentz's proven upside in theory only.

• Standard 12-Team Redraft Leagues - Draft him late as a high-ceiling backup if your league supports enough bench spots for two quarterbacks
• Superflex Formats - Don’t be scared to reach for him as a priority QB2 starter
• Best Ball - Wentz and his pass-catchers are presently one of the best low-budget stacks you can easily complete in the double-digit rounds of your drafts
• DFS - The opposing defenses in the AFC South project as bad-to-terrible. Based on his ADP, Wentz should be undervalued in his early-season division matchups

Other Thoughts From Around The Web

Ian Hartitz from Pro Football Focus isn’t as optimistic about Wentz in his new surroundings:

Wentz finds himself back with Frank Reich on a great overall Colts roster, although the lack of proven options at WR and TE are concerning. There’s a scenario where Parris Campbell stays healthy, Michael Pittman takes a Year 2 leap and T.Y. Hilton proves to not be washed; even then we’d need to see Wentz not function as one of the league’s bottom-five QBs like he did in 2020.

Mike Tagliere from FantasyPros thinks Wentz won’t remain as cheap as we get closer to draft season:

"Through his five years in the league, Wentz’s fantasy finishes have been QB24, QB5, QB23, QB10, and QB22. If the trend holds steady to alternating years, we should have a good one. This is more about the reunion with Frank Reich than it is Wentz’s yearly finishes, as Wentz finished with 54 touchdowns and just 14 interceptions while playing under Reich in 2017 and 2018. He now has what might be the best offensive line in football, which should allow him to get back on track in 2021. His ADP could rise to as high as QB18."

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