The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $2,120 50-50 on DraftKings.
Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, or concerns regarding this article or anything else tangentially related to fantasy football.
Sharp Lineup
- QB- Lamar Jackson
- RB- Khalil Herbert
- RB- Darrell Henderson
- WR- Davante Adams
- WR- Tee Higgins
- WR- Brandin Cooks
- TE- Ricky Seals-Jones
- FLEX- Kareem Hunt
- D/ST- Cleveland Browns
Lineup Analysis
Khalil Herbert and Kareem Hunt were featured in last week's Sharp Core. Khalil Herbert outperformed all expectations in his first go as a number-one back in the NFL, while Kareem Hunt was victimized by a brutal game script and a late-game calf injury that limited his usage and production. Below, in italics, is the forward-looking analysis that was used last week to project this pair as sharp plays for Week 6.
- Sharp Core Feature #1: Khalil Herbert
- Khalil Herbert replaces Darrel Williams as the first feature of this week's Sharp Core due to mid-week news that shook up the Chicago Bears' backfield. Damien Williams, the Bears' short-term starter while David Montgomery heals from a knee injury, landed on the COVID/Reserve List this week and will not be available for the team's Week 6 bout with the Green Bay Packers. Now, Khalil Herbert is slated to step into the starting spot as Chicago's bell-cow running back. Last weekend, in Chicago's first full game without Montgomery, Herbert, who was nominally the team's backup, out-snapped and out-carried Damien Williams. Now, without another running back to split snaps with, Khalil Herbert is an elite option for contests of all formats on DraftKings due to his bottom-dollar price of just $4,600.
- Sharp Core Feature #2: Kareem Hunt
- Cleveland's running back situation closely resembles that of the Chicago's this week, but at a much higher level. Typically, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb split snaps and carries for the run-heavy Cleveland Browns. However, Chubb was surprisingly ruled out earlier this week, giving Kareem Hunt sole possession of the starting running back spot for the team's Week 6 clash with the Arizona Cardinals. Hunt is priced at $6,200 on DraftKings this weekend, a price he has returned over 4x-value on twice in five games this season while splitting action with Nick Chubb. Now, without Chubb in the fold, many analysts here at FootballGuys project Kareem Hunt to be the highest-scoring running back on the Week 6 main slate of games. Do not pass up on the opportunity to roster Kareem Hunt, the potential number-one overall running back on the slate, this weekend when he is just the 12th most expensive option at the position.
Darrell Henderson
Darrell Henderson was the third running back selection for a plethora of sharp NFL DFS players last weekend, thanks to high volume expectations and a favorable expected game script. Henderson and the Rams entered their Week 6 clash with the New York Giants as 7.5-point favorites, the 2nd largest mark on the slate. Here, given his role as the Rams' unquestioned number-one running back, Darrell Henderson's projected rushing volume got a significant boost.
Henderson scored at least 15 DraftKings points in every game he played leading up to this Week 6 outing, thanks to his stable playing time (when healthy,) red-zone work, and stable role in the team's high-octane passing attack. Paying just $6,000 for the number-one running back on the team with the second-highest team total on the main slate of games was a value that sharp NFL DFS players could not pass on.
Brandin Cooks made his way into 40-percent of lineups in the GIANT $2,120 50/50 on DraftKings in Week 6, and at $5,800, he proved to be worth his price en route to 17.9 DraftKings points. Cooks and the Texans entered Week 6 as 11-point underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts when they faced off inside the dome of Lucas Oil Stadium that typically fosters a passing-friendly playing environment for offenses. The Texans are no stranger to playing from behind and being forced into pass-happy game plans. Due to the Texans' tendency to play from behind, Cooks did not project to see a notable increase in volume through the air last weekend. However, at nearly nine targets-per-game, Cooks' aerial volume was more than enough to warrant consideration as his team's number-one receiving option.
No other wide receiver in the $6,000 price range had a viable case over Brandin Cooks as a viable cash-game option on the outside, which led to his inclusion in nearly half of the entries in the GIANT $2,120 50/50 on DraftKings.
Ricky Seals-Jones stepped into the starting role for Washington in Week 5 when Logan Thomas landed on the injured reserve. Since then, Seals-Jones has played almost every offensive snap for the Football Team, providing plenty of scoring opportunities for the veteran. Seals-Jones played 99-percent of the team's offensive snaps in his first start of the season, commanding 9 targets for 5 receptions and 41 yards against the New Orleans Saints. In Week 6, Seals-Jones and the Football Team played host to the Kansas City Chiefs as seven-point underdogs. At the modest price of just $3,000, Seals-Jones was an elite bargain-bin tight end option in an expectedly pass-heavy environment if Washington was playing from behind, as expected. Saving salary at tight end allowed players to pay up at wide receiver and quarterback while fitting two $6,000+ running backs into their cash-game lineups, which made Ricky Seals-Jones an exceptionally attractive tight end selection in Week 6.
Ricky Seals-Jones was the salary-saving tight end of choice due to his newfound playing time and role in an offense that was expected to air the ball out.
Week 7 Sharp Core
Build Week 6 cash game lineups around the Sharp Core. The players featured below are selected using the same processes and research that the sharpest NFL DFS players use. The results for these selections over the last 3+ seasons have been strong, with documented success across every position and price range.
This article will be updated later in the week as more information becomes available leading up to kickoff. Be sure to follow me on Twitter, where I will send a tweet to notify everyone whenever I update any of my articles here at FootballGuys.
Sharp Core Feature #1: Cooper Kupp
The top-end wide receivers have been exceptionally popular building-block pieces in cash-game lineups this season. This week, the wide receiver of choice will likely be Cooper Kupp against the Detroit Lions. Kupp and the Los Angeles Rams currently have the highest team total on the slate, at over 33 points, which should afford Kupp with plenty of scoring opportunities on the afternoon. Additionally, this matchup will take place in Los Angeles, inside the dome of SoFi Stadium, which should help the Rams' already efficient passing attack reach new heights against an inferior opponent. Cooper Kupp has commanded at least 10 targets in every game this season, and there is no reason to expect that to end this weekend when he grades as the top wide receiver on the slate at $8,400 on DraftKings.
Sharp Core Feature #2: Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman made his NFL debut last weekend against the Los Angeles Chargers after missing the early portion of his rookie campaign due to a hamstring injury. Bateman, a first-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens in the 2021 NFL Draft, immediately stepped into a starting role on the outsider for the team, partially due to an injury that sidelined Sammy Watkings. The rookie's numbers were encouraging last weekend, when he played 65-percent of Baltimore's offensive snaps and commanded a target on over 27-percent of his routes in his first taste of NFL action. A run-heavy game script due to an unexpected blowout limited Bateman's raw receiving totals, as he tallied 4 catches on 6 targets for 29 yards through the air, but all of the underlying predictors of success are present here. Rashod Bateman costs just $3,400 this week when the Baltimore Ravens have a 27.5-point team total as they play host to the Cincinnati Bengals, providing the strongest point-per-dollar value of any bargain bin wide receiver on the slate.
Lock Rashod Bateman into cash game lineups in Week 7, as his bottom-dollar price, first-round talent, and newly assumed starting role all bode well for his massive potential to outperform expectations at just $3,400.
