The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $2,120 50-50 on DraftKings.
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The Sharp Lineup
Lineup Analysis
In Week 6, Trey Lance made his first start for the San Francisco 49ers due to a calf injury that Jimmy Garoppolo sustained the week prior. Lance, a true dual-threat quarterback, was drafted third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft earlier this year, and his upside as a prospect is immense. Although his long-term potential is mostly irrelevant for DFS purposes, the traits that make Lance a unique talent-- his size, speed, and arm strength--make him an exciting fantasy option right away.
DraftKings priced Trey Lance at just $5,700 on the Week 6 main slate of games, far below where similarly mobile quarterbacks in high-upside offenses are typically priced. One week prior, when Lance took over midway through the game after Garoppolo got injured, the rookie quarterback posted over 20 DraftKings points in just one-half of action. The 20-point half was an evident ceiling performance and should not be regularly expected from the youngster, but it provides a good idea of his fantasy upside. Additionally, Lance's first NFL start came at the Arizona Cardinals, inside the dome of State Farm Stadium. As noted in recent weeks, targeting quarterbacks and passing attacks playing in domes, where they are shielded from the elements, is a very sharp strategy for building cash game lineups.
Overall, Trey Lance was the quarterback of choice for sharp NFL DFS cash-game players in Week 6 due to his immense rushing upside, modest price, and friendly game conditions inside the dome of State Farm Stadium.
A few weeks ago, Alexander Mattison was priced up above $6,000 to account for the potential that he started for Minnesota if Dalvin Cook was unable to play, specifically in Weeks 3 and 4. However, after Cook missed just one week (Week 3) and returned to action to start in Week 4, DraftKings assumed he was 100-percent back, and they dropped Mattison's price back down to $5,500 as a result. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse with Dalvin Cook's ankle leading up to the Vikings' Week 5 matchup with the Detroit Lions, which sidelined Cook and pushed Mattison back into a starting role.
The role of Minnesota's number-one running back is exceptionally valuable. Under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are a run-heavy team that prefers to rely heavily upon just one player in the backfield instead of a committee approach. As the starter in Week 3, Alexander Mattison posted over 26 DraftKings points against the Seattle Seahawks. Now, against the Detroit Lions, he was gifted one of the softest matchups that any running back could ask for, as his team was favored by over 10 points and had an implied team total of nearly 30 points, the second-highest mark on the slate.
At just $5,500, Alexander Mattison was the number-one running back target amongst the sharpest NFL DFS players. As prohibitive favorites, the run-heavy Vikings were expected to increase their rushing volume even more, while Mattison assumed the role as the team's bell-cow in the backfield. Rostering former backups assuming starting roles at backup-level prices remains one of the most popular cash-game strategies amongst sharp NFL DFS players.
Derrick Henry and Davante Adams
Despite featuring at different positions, the process behind paying up for both Derrick Henry and Davante Adams for cash games last weekend was very similar.
Both Henry and Adams are exceptionally high-volume players at their respective positions. In Tennessee's backfield, Derrick Henry has tallied almost 50 more carries than any other player in the NFL through 5 weeks, and there are no signs of this other-worldly volume slowing down any time soon. For Green Bay, Davante Adams leads the NFL in both targets and receptions, and the connection between him and Aaron Rodgers is as strong as ever.
At running back, despite being priced at $9,000, Derrick Henry's astronomical volume expectations made him one of the best point-per-dollar options on the slate. Leading up to Week 5's game, Henry averaged 32 carries-per-game across his last 3 games. Then, this past weekend, a favorable game script as 4-point favorites over the dismal Jacksonville Jaguars made Derrick Henry a stellar candidate to approach the 30-carry mark once again.
On the outside, Davante Adams's per-game receiving numbers have been mind-numbing for over a year now. Last season, Adams hauled in over 8 passes for 98 yards and 1 touchdown every time he suited up, good for an average of over 27 DraftKings points per game. This season, Adams has shown no signs of slowing down, registering at least 8 receptions and 121 receiving yards in 2 out of his first 4 games. Davante Adams is one of the few players in the NFL that has no true competition for his share of targets-- there is no feasible scenario where Aaron Rodgers suddenly starts targeting another player 10-to-15-times each game instead of Adams.
Paying up for both Derrick Henry and Davante Adams was a no-brainer for sharp NFL DFS cash-game players in Week 5 due to the incredible volume edge that each player projected to have over their peers. Derrick Henry's 30-carry potential was so significant and valuable that he easily justified his $9,000 price tag last week. Elsewhere atop the DraftKings player pool, at $8,200, Davante Adams's unmatched receiving volume and outstanding consistency made for an easy decision at wide receiver in cash-game lineups.
In recent weeks, Leonard Fournette has solidified himself atop Tampa Bay's depth chart at running back. Ronald Jones II, Fournette's primary competition for early-down work, has not played more than 20-percent of the team's offensive snaps since Week 2. As long as the Buccaneers are not playing from behind, Fournette's role in this offense is stable, as shown by his season-high 82-percent snap-share last weekend against the Patriots, which accompanied 20 carries, 5 targets, and 16.9 DraftKings points. His cash-game viability in Week 5 was derived from this stable role in positive game scripts, combined with a soft matchup as 11-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins and a middle-of-the-road price tag at only $5,200. After zeroing in on Derrick Henry and Davante Adams at the top-end of the player pool, saving some salary with another affordable running back option like Fournette was essential for roster construction last weekend.
CeeDee Lamb was a strong buy-low option in Week 5 at $6,200 against the New York Giants. Lamb came out firing in 2021 with a 7-catch, 15-target, 104-yard, and 1-touchdown Week 1 performance and an 8-catch, 9-target, and 81-yard Week 2 showing. However, Lamb followed up this strong opening with lackluster numbers in Weeks 3 and 4, where he totaled 8 targets, 5 receptions, and 79 yards combined across the pair of games. Lamb entered Week 3 priced at $6,800 in the DraftKings player pool, but after the mediocre recent stat lines, he entered Week 5 at just $6,200. In Week 5, the Cowboys played host to the Giants inside the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium's dome, which boosts the efficiency of the passing attack. Additionally, this matchup had the highest total of any game on the slate at 53 points, and Dallas was the only team on this main slate of games with an implied team total higher than 30 points. CeeDee Lamb's role as the co-number-one wide receiver in Dallas's high-octane offense is exceptionally valuable overall, and that is especially true in potential shootout situations like this one.
One remarkable trait of sharp NFL DFS players is their ability to combat recency bias. In Week 5, the sharps presented a great example of this skill when they flocked to CeeDee Lamb in high-stakes cash games. Despite struggling in back-to-back games leading up to this slate, CeeDee Lamb still made his way into 45-percent of lineups in the GIANT $2,120 50/50 on DraftKings. Do not lose trust in talented players with a track record of impressive production, and instead buy-low when a player like CeeDee Lamb sees his price drop ahead of a soft matchup with massive upside.
Evan Engram has become the de facto number-one receiving option in the New York Giants' offense in recent weeks. As soon as Engram entered the fold in Week 3, New York lost two of its top pass-catchers on the outside, as Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton both went down with multi-week injuries. Despite commanding 12 total targets and running routes on 66-percent and 75-percent of the team's dropbacks in each of his first two games, respectively, Engram's price remained perplexingly low at just $3,200 last week. Although Engrams' raw projection totals were not awe-inspiring, the expected game script and environment provided massive upside at his bottom-dollar price. Last weekend, the Giants went down to Dallas to take on the Cowboys inside AT&T Stadium, which features a dome that fosters passing-friendly playing conditions. Additionally, the betting markets closed with a 53-point total for this game, the highest mark on the slate, signaling significant shootout potential and upside for both offenses.
On a slate devoid of top-end tight ends, saving salary with a $3,300 option like Evan Engram was a viable strategy, even before accounting for the upside baked into his role as a featured pass-catcher of his team's depleted passing attack in the game with the highest total in the betting market.
Much like Evan Engram, Jaylen Waddle was the beneficiary of a depleted receiving corps in Week 5, which boosted his fantasy value. The Miami Dolphins entered their Week 5 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as steep underdogs, in part because they were without DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, arguably their top two wide receivers. In the absence of the two veterans, rookie Jaylen Waddle was primed to assume the number-one pass-catching role in Miami's offense. Just two weeks ago, Waddle recorded 12 receptions on 13 targets against the Las Vegas Raiders, proving he is capable of shouldering a heavy load through the air for the Dolphins. Also, Miami's projected passing volume was boosted last weekend by the expected game script. As 11-point underdogs, the Dolphins were expected to need to play catch-up for the majority of the afternoon, which typically features a hefty dose of the passing game. The icing on the cake for Waddle as a cash game option in this roster construction was the positive correlation with Leonard Fournette on the opposite side of the football for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fournette's projected rushing volume increases as the team's lead grows. Conversely, Jaylen Waddle's potential target volume increases as the deficit the team needs to overcome grows.
At just $4,800, Jaylen Waddle's projected volume through the air in this depleted receiving corps far outpaced his salary-implied expectations. Additionally, Waddle correlated positively with another feature of this roster construction, as he and Leonard Fournette, the opposing running back, thrive in the same game script.
Week 6 Sharp Core
Build Week 6 cash game lineups around the Sharp Core. The players featured below are selected using the same processes and research that the sharpest NFL DFS players use. The results for these selections over the last 3+ seasons have been strong, with documented success across every position and price range.
This article will be updated later in the week as more information becomes available leading up to kickoff. Be sure to follow me on Twitter, where I will send a tweet to notify everyone whenever I update any of my articles here at FootballGuys.
Sharp Core Feature #1: Darrel Williams
Although Darrel Williams does not jump off the screen with any signature skill or trait, the former undrafted free agent clearly provides what Andy Reid asks of him as a rotational running back. Since signing with Kansas City after the 2018 NFL Draft, Darrel Williams has remained on the team's roster ever since, despite only getting one start across those three seasons. Week 6, however, projects to be Williams's second career start, as Clyde Edwards-Helaire will not be available due to an MCL sprain that landed him on the injured reserve.
Entering this season, throughout Darrel Williams's three-year career, he had played over 50-percent of Kansas City's offensive snaps five times, including a pair of playoff games last year. Williams commanded at least five targets in all five such games. In that sample, he averaged 3.6 receptions and 28.6 yards through the air. Last week, in a game that did not clear the minimum playing time threshold for the aforementioned sample, when he played about 40-percent of Kansas City's offensive snaps in relief of Edwards-Helaire, Williams hauled in 3 out of his 5 targets for 18 receiving yards. When Darrel Williams gets onto the field, he consistently catches passes and plays a role in the Chiefs' passing attack. Such consistency is especially impressive when accounting for the fact that his playing time is nearly random.
Additionally, the Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with an implied team total of approximately 31.5 points as 7.5-point favorites over the Washington Football Team. As heavy favorites, the Chiefs will likely turn to the run-game to help milk the clock throughout the second half of this game. Last week, in the team's first taste of football without Clyde Edwards-Helaire available this season, Darrel Williams out-snapped Jerick McKinnon, the team's other running back that suited up for the game, 37-to-27, and out-carried him 5-to-1. All signs point towards Darrel Williams being the preferred option in this backfield, as Andy Reid immediately turned to him amidst the chaos of a primetime rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game.
This weekend, Williams will likely make the second start of his career in an elite fantasy environment, as the Chiefs are heavy favorites with the highest team total of any team on the main slate. However, at just $4,900, Darrel Williams is priced like the backup that he has been for most of his career. Lock Williams into cash game lineups on DraftKings this weekend, as he provides a floor of receiving production and a ceiling of rushing volume that dwarf the salary-implied expectations of a $4,900 price tag.
Sharp Core Feature #1: Khalil Herbert
Khalil Herbert replaces Darrel Williams as the first feature of this week's Sharp Core due to mid-week news that shook up the Chicago Bears' backfield. Damien Williams, the Bears' short-term starter while David Montgomery heals from a knee injury, landed on the COVID/Reserve List this week and will not be available for the team's Week 6 bout with the Green Bay Packers. Now, Khalil Herbert is slated to step into the starting spot as Chicago's bell-cow running back. Last weekend, in Chicago's first full game without Montgomery, Herbert, who was nominally the team's backup, out-snapped and out-carried Damien Williams. Now, without another running back to split snaps with, Khalil Herbert is an elite option for contests of all formats on DraftKings due to his bottom-dollar price of just $4,600.
Sharp Core Feature #2: Kareem Hunt
Cleveland's running back situation closely resembles that of the Chicago's this week, but at a much higher level. Typically, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb split snaps and carries for the run-heavy Cleveland Browns. However, Chubb was surprisingly ruled out earlier this week, giving Kareem Hunt sole possession of the starting running back spot for the team's Week 6 clash with the Arizona Cardinals. Hunt is priced at $6,200 on DraftKings this weekend, a price he has returned over 4x-value on twice in five games this season while splitting action with Nick Chubb. Now, without Chubb in the fold, many analysts here at FootballGuys project Kareem Hunt to be the highest-scoring running back on the Week 6 main slate of games. Do not pass up on the opportunity to roster Kareem Hunt, the potential number-one overall running back on the slate, this weekend when he is just the 12th most expensive option at the position.
