The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $2,120 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Sharp Lineup
Lineup Analysis
This week, sharp NFL DFS players opted against jamming a third running back into their cash game lineups. This is an interesting change in strategy from the world's top players that is worth keeping an eye on. Generally, there have been fewer top-tier running backs worth jamming into lineups, potentially due to a change in the DraftKings pricing algorithm. However, when deciding between two equal options at the utility spot, favor the running back over a wide receiver or tight end.
- At $6,600, Dak Prescott was surprisingly affordable in Week 4, given his stable floor of production leading such an efficient passing attack. Dating back to last season, the Dallas Cowboys' passing game has been exceptional with Prescott under center, and Week 4 projected to be much of the same against the Carolina Panthers. With a team total of about 28 points. Despite sustaining a gruesome ankle injury that ended his 2020 campaign, Prescott's rushing volume remains significant this year, as he averaged over four carries-per-game entering this clash with the Panthers. The ability to roster a prolific passer such as Prescott, who also provides notable rushing production, at just $6,700, was the sharp choice in NFL cash games in Week 4.
- Both Henry and Hubbard were featured in last week's Sharp Core & made their way into at least 25-percent of lineups in the Giant $2,120 50/50 on DraftKings, providing more signal of a strong process for Sharp Core selection that should yield profit down the line this season. Below, in italics, is the analysis used to project each player as a sharp play before last week's slate.
- The Tennessee Titans have been decimated at wide receiver this week. On Sunday, when the Titans head to New York to take on the struggling Jets, the defending AFC South champions will be without their top two receiving threats, as both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are out with hamstring injuries. As a result, look for the run-heavy Titans to rely on Derrick Henry and their rushing attack even more in Week 4. Tennessee remains six-point favorites this week despite the lack of receiving options, which should foster an environment that will further encourage a run-heavy attack. Derrick Henry is already the highest-volume running back in the NFL, but his volume has never been safer and more secure than it is this weekend. At $8,800, Henry is worth paying up for at running back.
- When Christian McCaffrey went down with a hamstring injury on Thursday night last week, Chuba Hubbard immediately stepped in as the team's number-one running back. Hubbard, a rookie out of Oklahoma State, played almost 75-percent of Carolina's offensive snaps after McCaffrey exited the game. Much like Alexander Mattison last week, Chuba Hubbard allows NFL DFS players to roster a near-bell-cow running back at a steep discount in Week 4. Additionally, the Carolina Panthers head to Dallas to take on an up-tempo Cowboys offense that should push the pace and provide increased scoring opportunities for Hubbard, who should also play a significant role in Carolina's passing attack. Last week, in about 3-quarters of action, Hubbard carried the ball 11 times and compiled 5 targets. With a full workload at hand this weekend, Chuba Hubbard will be a building block for sharp NFL DFS cash-game players at just $5,900.
Amari Cooper & D.J. Moore
- A pair of receivers from a projected high-scoring affair between the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers made their way into sharp DraftKings cash-game lineups. First, Amari Cooper made for a fantastic buy-low option to pair with quarterback Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper's receiving volume has been startlingly low since Week 1, causing a precipitous drop in price down to $6,000 in Week 4. There is a large sample of data to work with for Amari Cooper that leads DFS players to believe that this drop in targets is just a random occurrence and not a signal of any concrete change in his role. Pairing a top-end receiver like Amari Cooper with his quarterback, especially when Cooper comes at a steep discount, was a popular move amongst sharp NFL DFS players.
- On the opposite side of this potential shootout, D.J. Moore was the wide receiver of choice for sharp NFL DFS players. Moore's receiving volume has increased dramatically compared to last season, in part due to the departure of Curtis Samuel, the team's number-two receiving option last season. Additionally, Christian McCaffrey's absence projected to add another boost to Moore's target count last week. McCaffrey plays a large role in Carolina's passing attack at running back, and without one of the league's best pass-catching running backs in the fold, the Panthers were expected to rely on D.J. Moore even more than normal in Week 4.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was by far the most popular salary-saving option in Week 4. Westbrook-Ikhine stepped into a full-time starting role last weekend due to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones hamstring injuries. Westbrook-Ikhine was the clear replacement on the outside after he topped the charts as Tennessee's most involved wide receiver in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks when both Brown and Jones exited mid-game. At only $3,200, rostering the number-one receiver in any offense is something that sharp NFL DFS players will prioritize on any slate when building cash-game lineups.
The Sharp Core
Sharp Core Feature #1: Deebo Samuel
- Deebo Samuel is the obvious focal point of San Francisco's passing attack in 2021. Deebo Samuel averages over 10 targets-per-game this season, and last week, with Trey Lance taking over at quarterback due to a calf injury to Jimmy Garoppolo, Samuel's production reached season-high levels with 8 receptions for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 targets. Trey Lance is in play as the potential starter for San Francisco once again this week and, as most rookie quarterbacks do, he should be expected to rely especially heavily upon his favorite targets, like Samuel. At $7,100, rostering the number-one receiver for the underdog in a game with a projected total of over 50 points, building lineups around Deebo Samuel is a sharp way to start the cash-game lineup building process in Week 5.
Be sure to check back in later this week for additional Sharp Core features to help in the lineup building process for cash-games for Week 5.
