The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $2,120 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Sharp Lineup
Lineup Analysis
This week, sharp NFL DFS players opted against jamming a third running back into their cash game lineups. This is an interesting change in strategy from the world's top players that is worth keeping an eye on. Generally, there have been fewer top-tier running backs worth jamming into lineups, potentially due to a change in the DraftKings pricing algorithm. However, when deciding between two equal options at the utility spot, favor the running back over a wide receiver or tight end.
- Lamar Jackson was the sharp selection at quarterback in Week 3 thanks to an extremely soft matchup against the Detroit Lions that projected to boost his remarkable rushing production to even higher levels. The Baltimore Ravens had one of the highest projected team totals on the Week 3 main slate of games, and as heavy favorites, the team's rushing volume was expected to trend upwards. Thanks, in part, to the increased rushing volume, Lamar Jackson has failed to surpass 20 DraftKings points in just 2 out of 17 games that his team has been favored by 7 or more points. The combination of safety and upside that Lamar Jackson provided last weekend against the dismal Detroit Lions was unignorable for sharp NFL DFS players.
- After missing most of the 2020 season due to a torn ACL, Saquon Barkley has been eased into action this year. Barkley was cleared to play just days before the season opener against Denver, which was followed by a short-week clash with the Washington Football Team in Week 2. However, Barkley's playing time and usage increased precipitously from Week 1 to Week 2, signaling a steeper increase would be in store for Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons. This expected return to form as one of the NFL's few bell-cow running backs, combined with a suppressed price, led sharp NFL DFS players to plug Saquon Barkley into their lineups right away at running back.
- News broke early on Sunday morning that Minnesota's number-one running back, Dalvin Cook, would be inactive against the Seattle Seahawks. This absence bumped Alexander Mattison up the depth chart and turned him into the presumed bell-cow running back for the Vikings. Recently, Minnesota has heavily leaned on a one-running-back system, regardless of the number-one running back. Alexander Mattison afforded NFL DFS players the opportunity to roster a bell-cow running back for just $6,000 in Week 3, and the sharpest players could not pass up on this.
- Opposite Chris Godwin, last week's Sharp Core Feature, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods topped the charts as the Rams' top receiving options. In a potential shootout with the highest total of any game on the Week 3 main slate of games, targeting the pass-catchers from these pass-happy offenses was a brilliant strategy. Although Cooper Kupp saw his price increase significantly from Week 2 to Week 3, he remained one of the best point-per-dollar options at wide receiver, given the Rams' expected passing volume. Conversely, the lack of any price increase for Robert Woods in such an enticing matchup was the primary draw to the underperforming veteran in Week 3. Robert Woods produced very little in weeks 1 and 2, but as an established player with obvious talent, sharp NFL DFS players were smartly willing to buy-low on Woods in a high-upside matchup.
- The Detroit Lions look like a completely different team this year on offense. The turnover at key skill positions has made T.J. Hockenson the team's number-one threat through the air. Through the first two weeks of the season, Hockenson tallied 20 targets, and Detroit's total lack of talent at wide receiver could make T.J. Hockenson's newfound receiving volume sustainable in the long term. However, at just $5,200, Hockenson would have needed much less than 10 targets to pay off this salary in cash games. Overall, T.J. Hockenson was the sharp option at tight end last weekend due to the dramatic increase in volume compared to the moderate increase in DraftKings price he has seen this season.
The Sharp Core
Last week, Chris Godwin made his way into 55-percent of lineups in the GIANT $2,120 50/50 on DraftKings. Another encouraging sign for the future of the Sharp Core. This week, the Sharp Core will likely feature one or two of the more "obvious" plays on the slate in combination with a third potentially contrarian option to gain an edge over the field while still using the same analysis and principles that sharp players typically utilize.
Sharp Core Feature #1: Chuba Hubbard, $5,900, Running Back
When Christian McCaffrey went down with a hamstring injury on Thursday night last week, Chuba Hubbard immediately stepped in as the team's number-one running back. Hubbard, a rookie out of Oklahoma State, played almost 75-percent of Carolina's offensive snaps after McCaffrey exited the game. Much like Alexander Mattison last week, Chuba Hubbard allows NFL DFS players to roster a near-bell-cow running back at a steep discount in Week 4. Additionally, the Carolina Panthers head to Dallas to take on an up-tempo Cowboys offense that should push the pace and provide increased scoring opportunities for Hubbard, who should also play a significant role in Carolina's passing attack. Last week, in about 3-quarters of action, Hubbard carried the ball 11 times and compiled 5 targets. With a full workload at hand this weekend, Chuba Hubbard will be a building block for sharp NFL DFS cash-game players at just $5,900.
Why Chuba Hubbard?
- Underpriced backup elevated into a starting role.
- Mid-priced running back that is likely to near bell-cow status.
- Facing an up-tempo opponent that will likely increase his team's offensive play count, increasing his scoring opportunities.
Sharp Core Feature #2: Derrick Henry, $8,800, Running Back
The Tennessee Titans have been decimated at wide receiver this week. On Sunday, when the Titans head to New York to take on the struggling Jets, the defending AFC South champions will be without their top two receiving threats, as both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are out with hamstring injuries. As a result, look for the run-heavy Titans to rely on Derrick Henry and their rushing attack even more in Week 4. Tennessee remains six-point favorites this week despite the lack of receiving options, which should foster an environment that will further encourage a run-heavy attack. Derrick Henry is already the highest-volume running back in the NFL, but his volume has never been safer and more secure than it is this weekend. At $8,800, Henry is worth paying up for at running back.
Why Derrick Henry?
- As six-point favorites, he should expect significant and stable rushing volume due to game script.
- Injuries to his team's top offensive weapons elsewhere will increase his already-increased volume even further.
- The gap in raw production between he and the next best running back option is too large to consider building cash lineups without him.
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