The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $2,120 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Sharp Lineup
In Week 1, when salaries are posted about a month in advance, there are numerous wildly inefficient prices in the DraftKings player pool by the time the slate finally kicks off. The same thing happens every year: in Week 1, the sharp chalk is significantly more concentrated. This year, 10 players in the Giant $2,120 50/50 on DraftKings landed on this same lineup.
Lineup Analysis
- At quarterback, Jalen Hurts was the sharp selection in Week 1. Hurts's rushing talents, combined with an expectedly soft matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, made him an elite mid-priced option under-center.
Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook
- Given the salary-saving options elsewhere, sharp NFL DFS players zeroed in on three top-end running backs. Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook are three-down running backs that shoulder the bulk of the load on the ground for their respective teams. Additionally, all three players typically see significant volume through the air, which provides massive value in the DraftKings scoring system. Most weeks, players will be forced to pick just one of these elite running backs for their DraftKings cash-game lineup. However, when the opportunity to roster more than one of them presents itself, it cannot be passed up.
Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway, and Elijah Moore
- Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway, and Elijah Moore all checked in at $3,600 or less in Week 1. Each wide receiver was primed to play a significant in his team's respective passing attack. Jones, Jr. had a secure every-down role for the new-look Jaguars passing attack. Callaway, a chief beneficiary of Michael Thomas's early-season absence, won the number-one wide receiver job in New Orleans by dominating training camp. Then, Elijah Moore, a rookie receiver for the New York Jets, was bumped up the depth chart thanks to the absences of Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole, his primary competition for reps in the slot. Each of these bargain bin receivers was a fantastic cash-game option on his own. However, given the optimal cash-game roster construction in Week 1, featuring three top-end running backs, locking all three value receivers was the strategy of choice for many of the sharpest NFL DFS players.
- Kyle Pitts, the number-four overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, is regarded by many as the best tight end prospect in recent memory. Pitts is nominally a tight end, but his college usage resembled that of a wide receiver. With the Atlanta Falcons, most expect similar usage for the game-changing pass-catcher to what he saw last year at the University of Florida. At just $4,400, this supremely talented wide receiver lining up at tight end offered far too much upside to pass up on. Although his results were not stellar, Pitts was undeniably the sharpest option at the tight end position on the Week 1 slate of games.
The Sharp Core
Last Week's Results
All three features of last week's sharp core made their way into at least 72.2-percent of lineups in the Giant $2,120 50/50 on DraftKings, which is a great sign for things to come. Although the results from the trio last weekend were not stellar, the process behind their selection was sound, and over time that will lead to sustainable and profitable DFS play.
Lineup Building Note: On DraftKings, it is essential that DFS players treat the FLEX position as a third Running Back position in cash games. Nearly 100-percent of sharp NFL DFS players use three running backs in their cash-game lineups. The variance of running backs is significantly lower than their counterparts at wide receiver and tight end due to the nature of their involvement in the offense. Starting running backs typically get 15-20 scoring opportunities (defined as carries + targets) per game, while starting wide receivers and tight ends may reasonably see 5-12 scoring opportunities per game.
Always use a running back in the FLEX position on DraftKings for cash-game lineups.
Sharp Core Feature 1: CeeDee Lamb, WR, $6,400
CeeDee Lamb is primed for a year-two breakout after a remarkable rookie campaign in Dallas last season. Lamb registered 15 targets in the season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccanneers, good for over 25-percent of the Cowboys' total targets. On Thursday night, Lamb racked up 159 air yards, one of the highest marks of any pass-catcher in the league during Week 1. This week, Dallas's matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers has the highest total on the main slate of games by about two points. Also, the Cowboys will be without Michael Gallup this weekend, as he picked up an injury in the season opener. Without one of the team's top-three pass-catchers, CeeDee Lamb can expect a larger share of the team's highly valuable targets.
In a post-game press conference, Dallas's offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, noted that Dak Prescott changed the play at the line-of-scrimmage from a run play (that Moore had called) to a pass play (of Prescott's liking) a whopping 12 times in the season opener. It is worth noting that this was not said with any tone of frustration in Moore's voice, but rather it was confirmation that he has full trust in Prescott to air the ball out as he sees fit. Expect Dallas's pass-heavy approach to continue throughout this season while CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the team's pass-catchers thrive. Overall, Lamb is remarkably underpriced in Week 2, and he will certainly be a player that sharp NFL DFS players lock in on to build cash-game lineups around.
Why CeeDee Lamb?
- His team is without another key contributor at his position, which should increase his role in the offense.
- He is a wide receiver playing in the game with the highest total on the main slate of games, according to betting markets.
- His price jumps off the page as a glaring early-season mispricing in the DraftKings player pool. He should easily cost $500-800 more than his listed $6,400 price.
Sharp Core Feature 2: Chris Carson, RB, $6,100
Chris Carson leads the Seattle Seahawks backfield into action against a Tennessee defense whose 2021 campaign started in one of the worst ways imaginable. Last weekend, the Titans were handed a brutal 38-13 drubbing at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. This disappointing season opener came on the heels of an offseason that left many wondering if this unit might be one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Needless to say, they did nothing last weekend to quell any of those worries.
This weekend, the Seattle Seahawks are favored by about six-points over the Tennessee Titans, which should lead to a run-heavy gameplan for the expected victors, which bodes extremely well for Chris Carson. Last week, Carson, the team's bell-cow running back, handled 16 out of 19 carries for Seattle running backs, and a similar role is expected this week. At the affordable price of just $6,100, Chris Carson tops the charts as the sure-fire selection at running backs for sharp NFL DFS players in Week 2.
Why Chris Carson?
- He is the bell-cow running back for a team that is heavily favored this weekend, which should lead to an increased workload.
- At just $6,100, he is one of the most affordable every-down options at the position.
- He has a respectable role in his team's passing attack, which is extremely valuable in PPR scoring formats.
