Sunday Showdown Week 18

Photo: Imagn Images

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. A swing pass to the third-string fullback can heavily alter the leader boards. Showdown can be a fun way to enjoy a Prime-Time game, or it can be an entire DFS portfolio. No matter the reason for playing, fortune favors the bold, and this article will never tell you a player is off-limits; even the third-string fullback. There are some cases where a great play will be so highly owned that their upside isn't worth losing the opportunity to be contrarian by fading them.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head lineups use median projections but a little variation goes a long way towards not getting duplicated.

Game Strategy

The NFL community has been blessed with a playoff game in week 18 of the regular season. The Chargers are heading to take on the Raiders as three-point favorites. The Raiders seem as though they will be getting Darren Waller back, as well as Josh Jacobs. Both quarterbacks are going to be strong plays, meaning there will need to be multiple viable low-priced options. Two of the better cheap options are Peyton Barber, and Bryan Edwards, which makes builds lean heavier in favor of the Raiders.

Captain Consideration

1. Derek Carr
2. Justin Herbert
3. Austin Ekeler
4. Josh Jacobs
5. Hunter Renfrow
6. Keenan Allen
7. Darren Waller

Chargers Offense

Quarterback

Justin Herbert $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Justin Herbert comes in at $1,400 more than Derek Carr, in a game where both teams have similar totals. Herbert is the better option, which is evident in the difference between he, and Carr’s median projection. The problem with Herbert is that his stacking options are expensive, and there aren’t great low priced options on his side of the ball. He fits well with Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler, but requires a cheaper captain in order to also fit Carr. Herbert fits best with one of Allen or Ekeler, and four Raiders.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler $11,600 – Captain or Flex

Austin Ekeler is the most expensive player on the slate and has the second-highest median projection behind only Herbert. Ekeler has a touchdown in each of his last four games played. He also has not received more than five targets since week 12. Ekeler is always an excellent play, but at high ownership, and the highest price of the slate, he isn’t a lock for every build.

Receiver

Keenan Allen $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Keenan Allen has a target share above 25% for the season, and with Ekeler recently seeing fewer targets, Allen has maintained a sizable workload. For less ownership, and salary, Allen is a better option than Ekeler in lineups that can only fit one or the other.

Mike Williams $7,200 – Flex

After a great start to the season, Mike Williams went quiet. Over the last 5 games, he has gotten back to an average of nearly 7 targets per game. He will be heavily involved, and at his price, he may go overlooked.

Other Targets

Jared Cook $5,600 - Flex

Jared Cook is set to regain a large portion of the tight-end snap share after Donald Parham was lost to a serious head injury in week 15. Cook is likely to see about 3 targets, which is not worth his price at $5,400. While Cook is a decent dart for a touchdown, there are better options for cheaper on the Raiders side of the ball.

Josh Palmer $4,200 – Flex

Josh Palmer has seen roughly 50% of the wide receiver snaps, as has Jalen Guyton, but Palmer has been more productive with his opportunities. Palmer is the best bet for a low-owned option of the Chargers offense. If building around four or five Chargers, Palmer makes it work.

Raiders Offense

Quarterback

Derek Carr $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Derek Carr is underpriced at $10,000 and makes the rest of the build fit well when adding three or four of his pass-catchers. He is the best captain of the slate, given that Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs are cheaper than the Chargers' primary options.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs $7,800 – Captain or Flex

Josh Jacobs is one of the better options from the second tier of players on this slate. He is projected for similar ownership to Williams, but he has a higher median projection than both Williams and Allen. He has been more involved in the passing game this year, which makes him a great stacking option with Carr at Captain.

Receiver

Hunter Renfrow $8,400 - Captain or Flex

Hunter Renfrow has emerged as a legitimate primary wide receiver for his team out of the slot. Much of his production has come in games without Waller. Given Waller’s return this week, it will be tricky to sort out Renfrow’s projection. Both Waller and Renfrow are quality plays at cost, with a slight lean to Renfrow given his flourishing rapport with Carr.

Darren Waller $9,200 – Captain or Flex

Darren Waller has not played since week 12. When he was active, he was Carr’s most-targeted weapon. Since his injury, Renfrow has taken his place. The question is whether or not Waller can regain his target share. The answer may be to simply play both Waller, and Renfrow, as they fit great with Carr builds.

Zay Jones $6,400 – Flex

Zay Jones has been locked in as the second option behind Renfrow, however, his price has gotten out of hand. With both Jacobs and Waller back, Jones is a tough play at $6,400 knowing his target share should be shrinking.

Other Targets -

Peyton Barber $1,000 – Flex

Although Jacobs will be available, Barber should still see a reasonable share of the backfield. He received 18% of the snaps in week 17, with 8 touches. He is also no stranger to goal-line work should Jacobs need a breather. He is the best punt play of the slate.