FBG NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. A swing pass to the third-string fullback can heavily alter the leader boards. Showdown can be a fun way to enjoy a Prime-Time game, or it can be an entire DFS portfolio. No matter the reason for playing, fortune favors the bold, and this article will never tell you a player is off-limits; even the third-string fullback. There are some cases where a great play will be so highly owned that their upside isn't worth losing the opportunity to be contrarian by fading them.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head lineups use median projections but a little variation goes a long way towards not getting duplicated.
Game Strategy
The Broncos are 9.5 point underdogs as they head to Kansas City. The Chiefs have gotten back in the win column of late after an offensive explosion against the Raiders created some momentum, but they still had a slow day against the Cowboys in week 11. They are coming off of a bye-week so they have had the additional time to prepare, but the Broncos have a solid defense with a reasonable chance to cover the spread. Most of this slate's ownership is going to be predicated around Chiefs onslaughts. There are ways to stack the Broncos heavily without giving up too much in the way of median projection.
Captain Consideration
- Tyreek Hill
- Patrick Mahomes II
- Javonte Williams
- Travis Kelce
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Darrel Williams
- Noah Fant
Broncos Offense
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater $9,800 - Captain or Flex
Teddy Bridgewater projects for just 16.4 points on Draftkings, but his price, and ownership make him a viable Captain. This entire season has seen the underdog quarterbacks come in with far less ownership than they reasonably should. With so much ownership on Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill, it will be contrarian to play Bridgewater, and stack him with multiple Broncos pass catchers. While this game will likely end up closer than the spread indicates, Bridgewater will still be forced to keep pace with the high powered Chiefs offense.
Running Back
Javonte Williams $7,600 – Captain or Flex
Javonte Williams has become the talk of the Twitter-verse due to his impending break-out game without Melvin Gordon in the lineup to siphon touches. Pairing Williams’ recent hype with his reasonable price tag is going to result in a massive amount of ownership. While he is still a decent play, especially at Captain given his price, it will be important to compensate for his ownership elsewhere. Williams should see an increase in passing-game usage with Gordon out, which makes stacking him with Bridgewater an excellent way to gain leverage against Chiefs onslaughts.
Receiver
Jerry Jeudy $7,200 – Flex
Jerry Jeudy has yet to see a snap share above 80% since returning from injury in week 8. He has been productive on his opportunities, which is why he is the most expensive wide receiver for the Broncos. In an up-tempo game where the Broncos are 9.5 point underdogs, it is possible more multiple Denver receivers to make the winning lineup. Given Jeudy’s price-tag, ownership, and opportunity share, he is the worst play of the four Broncos receivers listed.
Courtland Sutton $6,800 – Flex
Courtland Sutton has maintained a full snap share since Jeudy’s return, but his opportunities have been few and far between. Sutton saw a season high 14 targets in week 6. Since then, he has averaged just 3.4 targets a game. Rostering Sutton over Jeudy only saves $400, which is what makes Sutton an underwhelming play for many of the same reasons.
Noah Fant – Captain or Flex
Noah Fant has an 85% snap share on the season, and is averaging 6.3 targets per game. Both are near team highs, yet Fant is only $5,000. He is objectively the best play of the Broncos receivers at any price, yet he is the cheapest of the starters. His ownership may end up being relatively high, but he is well worth it for the salary relief he provides.
Other Targets
Tim Patrick - Flex
Tim Patrick’s recent contract extension has shown that the team values the role he plays in their offense. He has had a higher snap share than Jeudy in each game since Jeudy’s return. His target consistency is on par with Fant’s, and he should be the lowest owned of all the Broncos starters. At $6,400, Patrick is an excellent play paired with Williams, Fant, and Bridgewater.
Mike Boone – Flex
Melvin Gordon is not expected to be available by kick-off, and the Broncos are not likely to give Williams every running back touch. Boone will be a popular punt play, but he is worth it for the salary he frees up.
Chiefs Offense
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes II $12,400 – Captain or Flex
In years past, Patrick Mahomes II would’ve been recommended for 100% of lineups. While he will still likely see ownership in the 70% range, he is avoidable. In fact, multiple Chiefs slates have been won this season with Kelce, and Hill, but no Mahomes. This is because Kelce, and Hill demand such high market shares that they can absorb most of Mahomes’ production without him succeeding else-where. Of course, in week 10 when Mahomes had 400 yards, and 5 touchdowns, you had to have him, but he has had multiple let down games as well. The Broncos bolster a tough defense, and will be more competitive than the spread indicates. In lineups with Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill, it will be important to be overly unique with the remaining three roster spots.
Running Back
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $8,600 – Flex
Clyde Edwards-Helaire received a sizeable workload in his first week back from injury, even on less snaps than Darrel Williams. This week he has been battling flu-like symptoms, but is expected to be available. Any reports on his status prior to kick-off are going to be important to monitor. Andy Reid has dressed running backs in the past, just to give them zero snaps. If reports are positive, Edwards-Helaire will be great leverage in Chiefs stacks without one of Hill, or Kelce.
Darrel Williams $2,000 – Captain or Flex
Even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire active in week 11, Darrel Williams saw 53% of the running back snaps. He received 5 carries, and 3 targets. 8 opportunities at only $2,000 is incredible in itself, but with Edwards-Helaire battling flu-like symptoms, Williams because one of the rare cheap captain candidates.
Receiver
Tyreek Hill $10,800 - Captain or Flex
Tyreek Hill is averaging an egregious 11 targets per game on the season. At $10,800, he is still too cheap. Even with Kelce projected for a market share above 20%, Hill has a projected market share pushing 30%. With that in mind, Hill should be in most lineups, so it will be important to be unique else-where.
Travis Kelce $10,000 – Captain or Flex
Travis Kelce is averaging roughly two less targets per game than Hill. He is also $800 cheaper, and will likely be slightly less rostered. In previous weeks, the price gap between Kelce, and Hill was larger, which increased Kelce’s ownership. Since Kelce, and Mahomes seem to be back to form, the price gap between Kelce, and Hill has shrunk which should lead to more ownership on Hill. Every bit of ownership saved in slates involving the Chiefs is crucial with so many lineups featuring Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce.
Other Targets -
Mecole Hardman $4,800 – Flex
Mecole Hardman has been seeing his snaps dwindling over the past few weeks. The Chiefs are twelve games into the season, and still don’t seem settled on a second option at wide receiver behind Hill. It appears Hardman did not make good on his long-term tryout, as both Josh Gordon, and Byron Pringle have seen increased snaps of late. Hardman is too expensive given his recent negative trajectory in the offense.
Byron Pringle $1,800 – Flex
In weeks 10, and 11 Byron Pringle saw the second most snaps amongst Chiefs wide receivers. He has had multiple targets in every game this season. At just $1,800 he is worth the extra $800 spent over Demarcus Robinson. He’s also a better play than Hardman regardless of price, but saves $3,000 in salary.
